Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
Map 5.6
Projected change in the climatic suitability for chikungunya transmission
-30°
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70°
Current situation
Projected change in the climatic suitability for chikungunya transmission
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Unsuitable
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Rather unsuitable
Partly suitable
Rather suitable
Suitable
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No data
40°
Outside coverage 0 500 1 000 1 500 km
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-30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50°
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70° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50°
60°
70° -30°
A1B 2011–2040 A1B 2041–2070 A1B
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2071–2100
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2011–2040
2041–2070
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70° -30° -20° -10° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40° 50°
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B1 B1 B1
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2071–2100
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Note:
Source:
The map shows the risk for chikungunya transmission in Europe. It was generated by combining temperature requirements of the
chikungunya virus with the climatic suitability of the vector Aedes albopictus. Projections for different time frames are based on
projections by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for two emissions scenarios (A1B, a medium emissions scenario, and B1, a low
emissions scenario). The 'current situation' refers to the 1960–1990 baseline climate.
Adapted from Fischer et al., 2013. © 2013 Fischer et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. Open access article distributed under the terms of
the Creative Commons Attribution License.
Projections: sandfly-borne diseases
Future climate change could have an impact on
the distribution of leishmaniasis by affecting
the abundance of vector species and parasite
development. Recent modelling indicates that the
central European climate will become increasingly
suitable for Phlebotomus species of sandflies (Fischer
et al., 2011). One modelling study concluded that, by
the end of the 2060s, France, Germany, western Poland
and southern United Kingdom could be colonised by
sandfly species, principally Phlebotomus ariasi and
Phlebotomus pernicious, while the entire Mediterranean
Basin, Balkan Peninsula and Pannonian Basin would
all be potentially climatically suitable habitats for
many Phlebotomus species (Trájer et al., 2013). Such
expansions of sandfly species would increase the risk
of leishmaniasis, but may be somewhat constrained
by the limited migration ability of sandflies. The risk of
disease transmission may also decrease in some areas
in southern Europe where climate conditions become
too hot and dry for vector survival.
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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