Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.6.3 Winter and mountain tourism
The winter sports industry across Europe attracts
millions of tourists each year, generating nearly
EUR 50 billion in annual turnover. The main winter sport
destination in Europe is the Alps, where 69 % of Alpine
ski areas in Germany, 87 % in Austria, 93 % in Italy and
97 % in France and Switzerland can be considered
as naturally snow reliable under the present climate
(Agrawala, 2007). However, warm winters have already
affected Alpine winter tourism. For example, in the
record warm winter of 2006/2007, some low‐altitude
ski areas in Austria were not able to offer a continuous
skiing season from December to April, despite being
equipped with artificial snow-making (Steiger, 2011).
The widespread reductions in snow cover projected
over the 21st century will affect snow reliability
and consequently the length of the ski season (see
Section 3.3.5). Substantial reductions in naturally
snow‐reliable ski areas have been projected for the
Alps, the Pyrenees, the Black Forest region in Germany,
and Sweden (Agrawala, 2007; Moen and Fredman,
2007; Endler and Matzarakis, 2011; Steiger and Stötter,
2013; Steger et al., 2013; Pons et al., 2015). Low-lying
ski areas are the most sensitive ski areas to climate
change. Studies have estimated that an increase in
mean temperatures of 1 °C will reduce the skiing season
by four to six weeks in low-lying regions in the Alps,
primarily as a result of earlier spring melting (Hantel
et al., 2000; Beniston et al., 2003). An analysis for
Switzerland estimates that the altitude limit above which
a region is considered 50 % snow reliable will increase
from 1 400 m in the 2000s to 2 200 m in the 2080s
under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) (Steger
et al., 2013). Overall, conditions for winter tourism are
expected to worsen in winter owing to reduced snow
reliability, with winter sport activities being negatively
affected before 2050, particularly at low altitudes and in
the presence of limited adaptation options. On the other
hand, traditional winter sport areas may become more
attractive for tourist activities in summer.
Artificial snow-making is the main technical adaptation
option for winter tourism destinations. Its cover has
increased significantly in recent years, for example
from less than 10 % of the total ski area in Switzerland
in 2000 to 36 % in 2010 (Rixen et al., 2011). However,
there are both environmental and economic
constraints to an expansion of artificial snowmaking,
which can offer only limited and increasingly
expensive protection from climate change impacts
(Steiger and Stötter, 2013; Damm et al., 2014; Kovats
et al., 2014). Investments in alternative activities
during winter or all-year-round tourism may partly
compensate for the loss in overnight stays, depending
on the attractiveness of the location for non-winter
sport tourism.
The economic impact of the worsening snow reliability
projected for most European ski resorts depends
strongly on tourists' adaptation choices. When tourists
stick to skiing but change the month (within the winter
season) in which they go and/or the destination, this
will affect the competition between skiing areas, with
the southern part of the Alps (e.g. in France and Italy)
losing overnight stays and the comparatively snowreliable
northern parts of the Alps and Scandinavia
benefitting from climate change. If tourists change
their holiday type, all skiing areas face a reduction in
overnight stays (Perrels et al., 2015).
Socio-economic and demographic changes can also be
important factors for future winter sport tourism. One
study on the Austrian Alps concluded that declining
and/or ageing populations in source countries are a
more immediate threat than climate change to winter
tourism in the first half of the 21st century, after which
the effect of rising temperatures will dominate (Steiger,
2012).
Some winter tourism, in particular in Nordic regions,
depends on a snowy landscape, despite not necessarily
being related to winter sport activities. Hence, Nordic
tourism can be threatened by the loss of reliable snow
cover in winter and the related damage to the general
perceptions of the northern landscape as a snowcovered
backdrop of outdoor and traditional activities,
even outside winter sport resorts (Tervo-Kankare et al.,
2013; Kaján, 2014).
266 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report