Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Climate change impacts on society Figure 5.4 Trends in economic losses from all natural hazards Economic losses (adjusted for inflation only) Billion EUR (2013 EUR value) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Economic losses (adjusted for inflation and wealth) Billion EUR (adjusted) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Geophysical events Meteorological events Hydrological events Climatological events Note: Source: This figure shows recorded economic losses in EEA member countries over the period 1980–2013 by hazard category: adjusted for inflation only (2013 EUR value) (left); adjusted for inflation and wealth (in terms of GDP changes) (right). Geophysical events are included for comparison. EEA based on data from Munich RE NatCatSERVICE received under institutional agreement. 198 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on society 5.2 Human health Key messages • Climate change is already contributing to the burden of disease and premature deaths in Europe. Its main health effects are related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. • Heat waves were the deadliest extreme weather event in the period 1991–2015 in Europe. They have caused tens of thousands of premature deaths in Europe. • Adverse impacts of future climate change are projected to outweigh beneficial impacts on the global scale. The health impacts and associated economic costs are also estimated to be substantial in Europe. However, quantitative projections of future climate-sensitive health risks are difficult owing to the complex relationships between climatic and non-climatic factors, climate-sensitive disease and other health outcomes. 5.2.1 Overview Relevance Climate change is already contributing to the global burden of disease and premature deaths. Climate change affects our health and well-being in many ways, through direct physical impacts (most of them due to amplified extreme weather events) and indirect social and economic changes (Figure 5.5). Many of the indirect effects of climate change will be simultaneously influenced by other global changes and socio-demographic pressures that act in conjunction with climate change. These include several categories of indirect health impacts and the tertiary effects on health and survival that arise from more diffuse disruptions, dislocations and conflicts, which are likely to increase in future decades and are indicated by upward-pointing arrows in Figure 5.5 (McMichael, 2013). Climate change will act mainly by exacerbating health problems that already exist, and the largest risks will apply in populations that are currently most affected by climate-related diseases. The potential health benefits from milder winters in some regions are, however, not expected to outweigh the risk of negative health effects through direct and indirect, immediate and delayed risks of climate change (McMichael et al., 2012). In Europe, climate change can increase water scarcity and quality, and can pose additional challenges for providing sustainable water and sanitation services (EEA, 2011b; Ludwig et al., 2011; Sinisi and Aertgeerts, 2011; IPCC, 2014a). Nearly half of over 50 infectious diseases that the EU Member States are currently required to report can be directly or indirectly affected by climate change; other climate-sensitive diseases, including many vector-borne diseases, are considered priority infectious diseases in relation to climate change in Europe (Lindgren et al., 2012). All people are affected by climate change, but the effect of climate change on people's health depends largely on their vulnerability ( 80 ) (e.g. age, pre-existing diseases, exposure, location) and their ability to adapt, linked to ecological, social, economic and cultural factors, including education and access to health systems, among others (EEA, 2010). Vulnerable population groups include the elderly and children, the urban poor, traditional societies, subsistence farmers and coastal populations (WHO, 2011). Vulnerabilities vary both within and across European regions. Areas with high adaptive capacities may be able to mitigate some of the health-related risks of climate change. In the European Union, areas with projected high vulnerabilities to infectious disease transmission include regions in Bulgaria, Greece, southern Italy, and Romania (Suk et al., 2014). Populations in some European areas are at a higher risk from climate change than others, depending on their exposure to climatic hazards and their vulnerability. Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves, and can increase economic losses and the number of people affected by such extreme heat events, having impacts on health and well-being, labour productivity, crop production and air quality, and increasing the risk of wildfires in southern Europe (Kovats et al., 2014). Arctic populations are particularly ( 80 ) The term 'vulnerability' is being used in different ways in the climate change context (see Section 1.4 for a more detailed discussion). Its use in this section follows its general use in epidemiology and public health, where it describes the relationship between exposure to a health hazard and the health effect. Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 199
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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