Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

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Climate change impacts on society upon the results of the other projects and further stakeholder consultation (see Table 5.7). The ToPDAd project has also assessed climate change vulnerability and adaptation options of selected transport systems in Europe ( 109 ) (ToPDAd, 2015). Some future changes in climate may have positive impacts on certain transport modes or in European regions. This can be true of a decrease in the ice cover of oceans and rivers, particularly in the Arctic, where an increase in average temperature would open up new transport routes. Warmer weather conditions would probably decrease maintenance costs for transport infrastructure in central and northern Europe (Ciscar et al., 2014). However, in Europe as a whole, the decreasing trend in winter extremes is overcompensated by the expected increases in warm extremes and heavy precipitation events (Koetse and Rietveld, 2009). Further warming implies a need for improvements in the heat tolerance of the transport system during summer, especially in countries that already experience high temperatures (Leviäkangas and Saarikivi, 2012). Although the results provided by climate models do not allow for a detailed geographical identification of transport impacts, all research projects mentioned previously include an attempt to locate key challenges in the different European regions. Map 5.20 summarises the projected changes in the probabilities of adverse and extreme weather events for each climate region until 2050. The threshold values used for the most harmful extreme weather phenomena are available in Table 5.8. Some of those projections are associated with significant uncertainties related to projections as well as related to zonal boundaries. Furthermore, some changes have been made to the original map from the EWENT project in order to improve consistency with the regionalisation used in the Executive Summary of this report. In particular, the Baltic States changed from the Temperate Eastern region to the Northern region, and they may experience features of both regions. Furthermore, the Temperate Eastern and Temperate Central regions have been combined; the further one goes towards East in the combined region, the more likely is the increase of heat waves. A decrease in cold spells, extreme snowfall and frozen precipitation have a positive impact on road, rail and air transportation, reducing the cost of maintenance and producing beneficial side effects. However, even with a general decreasing trend in winter extremes, winter extremes are still expected to have an impact on transportation owing to interannual variability, and would still need to be considered in maintenance and investment for improving preparedness for many European countries. An increase in warm extremes and heavy precipitation events are likely to have negative impacts on transport. During summer, especially in countries that already experience high temperatures, further warming implies a need for improvements in the heat tolerance of the transport system. Increases in heat waves in the Mediterranean and in eastern Europe and cold spells in northern Europe are the main stressors identified until 2050 (Leviäkangas and Saarikivi, 2012). Although research on the potential economic impacts of climate change on transport is rapidly expanding, results are still constrained by a variety of sources of uncertainty: the initial uncertainty of future climate, the limited reliability of long-term forecasts on demand for the various transport modes, and the weak basis available to estimate the expected impacts (damage, accidents, travel costs, time delay, etc.) on the future transport system. The WEATHER project (Przyluski et al., 2011) estimated that annual direct transport costs related to extreme weather events in 1998–2010 were EUR 2.5 billion and that annual indirect costs added EUR 1 billion; the project also estimated a 20 % increase until the period 2040–2050. All transport modes and logistics were included in this estimate, with the sole exception being urban public transport. The EWENT project followed a different approach, including estimates on accidents, travel time and costs as well as on transport infrastructure and maintenance. The results found only small differences between 2010 and 2040–2070; the main changes would be a significant reduction in annual accident costs (EUR 3.4 billion) and a significant increase in annual logistics costs (EUR 4 billion); the drivers of these changes were related more to trends in demand and technology than to the impacts of extreme weather events (Nokkala et al., 2012). The PESETA II project provides another estimate, limited to road and rail transport; the impact on transport in terms of welfare loss as a percentage of GDP would be negligible (below 0.1 %) and would be much lower than in other sectors, such as water or health, in all of the scenarios considered until 2050 (Nemry and Demirel, 2012; Ciscar et al., 2014). It is worth noting that discrepancies in the figures estimated by the various projects is a logical consequence of differences in their underlying hypotheses and definitions regarding key concepts such as extreme weather event thresholds and occurrence, or transport system disruption and its consequences. ( 109 ) http://www.topdad.eu. 256 Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
Climate change impacts on society Table 5.7 Summary of transport vulnerabilities to extreme weather events Extreme weather event Heat waves Cold spells Heavy precipitation (large-scale systems) Snowfall Large-scale storms and winds Impacts on transport modes Road Rail Water-borne Aviation Damage to pavements Rail buckling Low river flow (due Damage to runway to drought), imposing pavement Vehicle failure (tyres) Material fatigue restrictions on loading Forest fires Increased instability of capacity, navigation Forest fires reducing embankments problems and speed visibility Fatigue of drivers reduction Take-off weight Overheating of limitations equipment Forest fires causing damage to infrastructure Reduced surface friction Road maintenance Technical failure of vehicles and infrastructure Deterioration of pavement Reduced visibility and surface friction Floods and landslides Reduced visibility and surface friction Obstacles on roads owing to snowdrift and broken branches Difficult driving conditions due to gusts Obstacles on the road owing to fallen trees and other objects Ice on trains and catenary Warm and early winters followed by a rapid decrease in air temperature may result in rougher ice cover formation and lead to ice jams and damage to navigation signs and infrastructure Flooding and landslides damaging infrastructure Scour to structures Increased instability of embankments Damage to infrastructure such as signals, catenary, etc. (e.g. owing to falling trees) High river flows, resulting in problems for passage of bridges, dike instability (speed limitations) and restrictions to the height of vessels Severe storms and extreme waves may affect maritime navigation Reduced runway friction Runway maintenance Deterioration of pavement Technical failure of vehicles and infrastructure Icing of aircraft Reduced visibility and runway friction Floods Reduction in airport throughput Runway clearance Reduced visibility and runway friction Snowdrift Runway maintenance Icing of aircraft Ground operations affected Increased turbulence with strong wind gusts Obstacles on the runways Safety risks for ground operations Safety regulations (wind threshold may lead to runway closure) Disruption to operations Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report 257
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EEA Report No 1/2017 Climate change
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Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © J
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Contents 3 Changes in the climate s
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Contents 6 Multi-sectoral vulnerabi
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Acknowledgements Acknowledgements R
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Acknowledgements Chapter 6: Multi-s
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Executive summary Executive summary
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Executive summary ES.1 Introduction
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Executive summary EU climate policy
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Executive summary dispersal of inva
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Executive summary Human health The
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Executive summary Table ES.1 Key ob
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Executive summary For 34 out of the
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Executive summary precipitation, th
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Executive summary as a result of cl
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Executive summary thereby deliverin
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Introduction 1.1.2 Content and data
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Introduction 1.1.3 Changes compared
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Introduction Table 1.4 Overview of
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Introduction collaboration between
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Introduction The primary characteri
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Introduction Table 1.7 Data coverag
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Introduction 1.3 Uncertainty in obs
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Introduction • attribution of an
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Introduction Article 4.4 of the UNF
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Policy context 2 Policy context 2.1
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Policy context In addition, the 203
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Policy context EU Adaptation Strate
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Policy context Map 2.1 Overview of
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Policy context Baltic Marine Enviro
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Policy context includes recommendat
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Changes in the climate system Figur
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Changes in the climate system asses
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system incre
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Changes in the climate system in Eu
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Changes in the climate system Box 3
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Changes in the climate system Proje
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 3.2.4
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Changes in the climate system Map 3
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Changes in the climate system 1871-
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Changes in the climate system 3.3 C
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Strengthening the knowledge base 7
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Strengthening the knowledge base
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8 Abbrev
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms Table 8.
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Abbreviations and acronyms 8.2 Acro
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References References Executive sum
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References EEA, 2004, Impacts of Eu
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References Adaptation to Climate Ch
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References EEA, 2015a, National mon
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References high-resolution climate
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References Fischer, E. M., Sedláč
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References Geophysical Research Let
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References Barletta, V. R., Sørens
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References Discussions 15(14), 20 0
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References Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T
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References L. R., Delgado Granados,
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References Chust, G., Allen, J. I.,
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References antropogent karbon i de
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References face of climate change',
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References Gerritsen, H., 2005, 'Wh
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References Andersen, K. K. and Chri
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References EEA, 2012b, Towards effi
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References Naturwissenschaften Schw
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References Arneth, A., Harrison, S.
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References northern margin of its d
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References Hegland, S. J., Nielsen,
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References weather', Agricultural a
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References 'The new assessment of s
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References Schweiger, O., Settele,
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References 'Warming experiments und
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References Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A
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References Burkart, K., Canário, P
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References Gertler, M., Durr, M., R
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References the environmental condit
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References Semenza, J. C., Sudre, B
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References Brisson, N., Gate, P., G
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References Lesk, C., Rowhani, P. an
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References Vitali, A., Segnalini, M
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References Rübbelke, D. and Vögel
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References Nemry, F. and Demirel, H
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References Pons, M., López-Moreno,
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References indicators of impacts an
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References Roudier, P., Andersson,
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References Global Environmental Cha
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References Chierici, M. and Fransso
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References the Pyrenees from a set
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References change on olive crop eva
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References Steeneveld, G. J., Koopm
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European Environment Agency Climate
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