Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Changes in the climate system
Figure 3.4
Projected changes in annual temperature and precipitation for northern Europe and
southern Europe and for two time periods
Precipitation change (%) Precipitation change (%)
25
20
2040s
Nothern Europe
25
20
2080s
Nothern Europe
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
– 5
– 4 – 2 0 2 4 6 8
Temperature change (°C)
– 5
– 4 – 2 0 2 4 6 8
Temperature change (°C)
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
Precipitation change (%)
Precipitation change (%)
10
5
2040s
Southern Europe
10
5
2080s
Southern Europe
0
0
– 5
– 5
– 10
– 10
– 15
– 15
– 20
– 20
– 25
– 25
– 30
– 30
– 35
– 4 – 2 0 2 4 6 8
Temperature change (°C)
– 35
– 4 – 2 0 2 4 6 8
Temperature change (°C)
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
Note: Projected changes in annual temperature and precipitation for northern and southern Europe for two time periods, relative to 1961–1990.
Each point is from a global model projection in the CMIP5 dataset (as used in the IPCC AR5) using either a high (RCP8.5: red circles) or low
(RCP2.6: green circles) forcing scenario. Only models in the CMIP5 that had projections for both scenarios were used.
Source:
UK Met Office.
3.1.5 Weather- and climate-related extreme events
Climate change is expected to lead to changes in the
frequency and strength of many types of extreme
weather and climate events (IPCC, 2012). Extreme events
(e.g. severe heat waves, extreme rainfall, droughts, etc.)
are rare by definition, which means that there are fewer
data available to analyse past changes in their frequency
or intensity. This makes extreme weather more difficult
to analyse, understand and project. Rare extreme events
tend to have the highest impact and cause the greatest
damage to natural and managed systems and to human
well-being (see Chapters 5 and 6).
Observed changes in extremes and their attribution to
climate change
Since 1950, the number, magnitude and duration of
several weather extremes have changed globally and
in Europe, and there is strong evidence that these
observed changes have generally been caused by human
activities. For example, about 75 % of the present-day
moderate daily hot extremes over land globally can
be attributed to human influence, and this fraction
increases non-linearly with further warming (Fischer
and Knutti, 2015). Furthermore, record-breaking rainfall
events have significantly increased since 1980, and this
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
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