Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Climate change impacts on society
5.2.3 Floods and health
Key messages
• River and coastal flooding have affected many millions of people in Europe since 2000. Flooding affects human health
through drowning, heart attacks, injuries, infections, exposure to chemical hazards and mental health consequences.
Disruption of services, including health services, safe water, sanitation and transportation ways, plays a major role in
vulnerability.
• Observed increases in heavy precipitation and extreme coastal water levels have increased the risk of river and coastal
flooding in many European regions.
• In the absence of additional adaptation, the projected increases in extreme precipitation events and in sea level would
substantially increase the health risks associated with river and coastal flooding in Europe.
Relevance
Climate change can increase the severity and frequency
of extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation,
and floods, storms and storm surges. Floods caused
by these events can affect people immediately
(e.g. through drowning and injuries) and after the event
(e.g. through displacement, the destruction of homes,
water shortages, disruption of essential services and
financial loss). The stress that flood victims are exposed
to can also affect their mental health, and effects
can persist a long time after the event. Two‐thirds of
flood‐related deaths worldwide are from drowning
and one‐third are from physical trauma, heart attacks,
electrocution, carbon monoxide poisoning, fire and
infectious diseases. Health system infrastructure
(e.g. hospitals) is vulnerable to extreme weather
events, in particular to flooding. Disruption of services,
including health services, safe water, sanitation and
transportation ways, plays a major role in vulnerability
(Radovic et al., 2012; Stanke et al., 2012; Brown and
Murray, 2013; WHO and PHE, 2013). Information
about economic damages from floods is presented in
Sections 5.1 and 6.3.
Past trends
Most regions in Europe have exhibited an increasing
trend in heavy precipitation over recent decades, in
particular in winter (see Section 3.2.5). The number
of large inland floods in Europe has been increasing
since the 1980s; however, there is not yet conclusive
evidence that climate change has already contributed
to this trend (Zolina et al., 2010; Hov et al., 2013;
Kundzewicz et al., 2013) (see Section 4.3.3).
Estimates for the WHO European Region based on
a combination of data from EM‐DAT and the DFO
indicate that coastal and inland floods killed more
than 2 000 people and affected 8.7 million in the
period 2000–2014. Map 5.1 shows the number of
deaths related to flooding in each EEA member and
cooperating country for the same period, normalised
by their population. The largest numbers are found
in south‐eastern Europe, eastern Europe and central
Europe. Note that, because of the relatively short time
period of 15 years, the value of the indicator can be
significantly affected by a single catastrophic event.
For example, at least 50 people were killed in massive
floods in the Balkan countries in May 2014 (Holt, 2014).
The EM‐DATA database also includes data on people
injured or (otherwise) affected by floods. This
information is not presented here owing to concerns
regarding the consistency with which these data are
assessed and reported across countries and even for
different flood events in the same country.
Projections
Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more
frequent in many regions in Europe, and sea level rise
is projected to accelerate compared with the 20th
century under all emissions scenarios. The PESETA II
project and the ClimateCost project have estimated
the economic and health effects of river and coastal
flooding under various climate change scenarios,
including sea level rise.
For a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) and in
the absence of adaptation, river flooding is estimated
to affect about 300 000 people per year in the EU by
the 2050s and 390 000 people by the 2080s; the latter
figure corresponds to more than a doubling with
respect to the baseline period (1961–1990). The British
Isles, western Europe and northern Italy show a robust
Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 | An indicator-based report
205