Challenges in the Era of Globalization - iaabd

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Proceedings of the 12th Annual Conference © 2011 IAABD Tanzania Investment Centre, and the Tanzania Government budget. Some data was obtained from government departments’ presentations and meeting proceedings, interviews with experts in some industries including the telecommunications industry and banking industry. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistical measures like measures of central tendencies (Mean, Mode, and Median) and measures of dispersions (Standards deviation, variance). Wherever applicable, these statistical tools were used in conducting inference to the population from the sample results (Baradyana & Ame, 2005). All of the study propositions were tested using three different approaches, the absolute values tests, Monthly growth tests and “index like” tests. Absolute value tests which in this study was referred to as “ABSOLUTES”, utilized the actually reported figures without any manipulation, while the month on month growth, which in this study was referred to as “RELATIVES”, measured the growth between absolute value in the preceding period (P=1) from the prior period (P=0). The Month on Month growth (MoM) were calculated as follows: MoM (P=1) = (Values P=1 / Values P = 0) An Index like test, referred to as “INDEXED”, was also conducted although it was not originally proposed. This was based on formula similar to the one used in computing the FTSE market index (FTSE, 2005), where the first month for each of the proposed three phases was set as 100%. The formula for the monthly index was computed as follows. Index (P=1) = Index (P=0) * (Values P=1 / Values P = 0) However the index test only makes sense only where the data have the same nature in terms of sign, that is, either all positives or all negatives. Hence the Index like measure was only used in the parameters that always have the same signs. In comparing the means, macroeconomic indicators were tested for their homogeneity so as to ensure that the tests statistics provides reliable results. The one way ANOVA was used where variances were homogeneous, otherwise the Brown Forsythe and Welch F tests were used (Field, 2008). Data Analysis and Findings The findings for the study propositions highlighted a mixed feeling where in some cases the impact was reflected in the indicators while in some cases it was not. In other cases, although the statistical significance was noted, other qualitative reports nullified the link between the “significance” and the financial crisis. Since each of the propositions was a reflection of a research question, the summary of the findings will be given while concluding on the research questions. It should be noted that the YES or NO answers will be answered in a reflection of what impact was expected (at least from the researchers’ perspective) from the financial crisis, which in almost all cases was the worst scenario (negative impact) to our economy. Conclusion on research questions and objectives 1. Is there any proof that the financial crisis significantly affected the value or volume of financial and/or capital assets traded in the Tanzanian economy? Based on the economic values of the treasury bills and bonds which were the indicators used to test the related proposition, the conclusion is YES, the financial crisis led to fewer number of auctions of smaller volume to manage the bills’ interest earning and boost liquidity in the economy. This finding is substantiated by the qualitative review which revealed that the BOT has had to change its auction system and targets by reducing the number of auctions and value on offer so as to increase the level of liquidity in the economy (for Tzs) that would keep the economy running, managing the inflation rates and lowering the treasury bills interest yield so as to influence the commercial banks rates (BOT, 2009(a)). 54
Challenges in the Era of Globalization Edited by Emmanuel Obuah 2. Is there any proof that the financial crisis significantly affected the level of Foreign Direct investments in Tanzania? This was another YES. Both FDIs and local investments were affected by the crisis with investors facing funding problems leading to investments and projects worth billions of Tzs halted. The projects studied are in the mining and electronic communication sectors. 3. Is there any proof that the financial crisis significantly affected the interest rates in the Tanzanian economy? The answer was a YES along the same line with question one. Since treasury bills’ rates are treated as risk free rates and used in determining the commercial banks rates, and the BOT influenced the bills’ rates and the effect on interests rates was felt where the average interbank lending rate between Phase II and Phase III declined from 8.62% to 6.61% encouraging the banks to borrow from each other and hence increasing their liquidity. On US$ saving rates, the effect was also felt where the average deposit rate increased by 104% from 0.82% to 1.67% reflecting the scarcity of US$ in the economy and the desire by banks to hold US$ deposits. 4. Is there any proof that the financial crisis significantly affected the volume of loans traded in the Tanzanian economy? The answer to this question is was “NO”. The statistics showed that the general levels of loans/credits by banks and especially credit to the private sector increased as opposed to expectation of a decreasing trend. An average monthly credits issued to the private sector during Phase III was Tshs 3.7Bn compared to Tshs 1.99Bn and Tshs 0.96Bn in Phase II and I respectively. The average monthly total domestic credit (loans) were Tshs 3.7Bn compared to Tshs 2.1Bn and Tshs 1.1 billion in Phase II and I respectively. 5. Is there any proof that the financial crisis significantly affected the levels of exchange rates of Tanzanian shillings against major international currencies? The answer was YES. The Tanzanian shilling power was shaken by the financial crisis. Significant differences in exchange rates movements were noted, indicating the depreciation of the shilling. Tshs/USD rate was in ranges of lower 1,300s (Jan. 2007), then appreciated to 1,100s (Oct. 2007), then depreciated to 1,200s (October 2008) and further to mid 1,300s in Jan 2009. The BOT took commendable efforts to manage the exchange rates as well as panic for foreign currency drought. During almost the whole of October 2008, the dollars dried up in the financial market, and most firms had to struggle a lot to purchase dollars to pay their foreign suppliers. 6. Is there any proof that the financial crisis significantly affected the levels of employment in Tanzania? This is directly related to question 2 and the answer was YES. A number of projects that would create employment were put on hold; some companies closed operations with others failing to get funds for expansion and a number of other negative effects on the economic activities. All these caused redundancies and layoffs of the actual and potential employment opportunities. 7. Is there any proof that the financial crisis significantly affected the levels of Tanzanian government debt? There were some statistically significant means’ differences noted on tests results on debt indicators. However, the significance resulted mainly from the relatively low debt levels in Phase II which was contributed by the HIPC and MDRI debt relief programs and this low level of debt was followed by a subsequent normal level which again turned to be significant due to an unusual low level in Phase II. The average monthly balance of foreign debt which forms a significant part of the debt was US$ 5.934Bn in Phase III compared to US$ 5.956Bn and US$ 7.82Bn in Phase II and Phase I respectively. No incidents of failed government’s obligation on debt servicing were reported. Hence the conclusion to this question and based on the scope of the study is NO effect noted on government debt. 8. Is there any proof that the financial crisis significantly affected the levels of Tanzania’s exports of goods and services? The review of the exports and international trade indicators in general, indicated 55
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Challenges in the Era of Globalizat
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Table of Contents Challenges in the
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Lennart Bangens, Goteborg, Sweden C
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Local Steering Committee Jacob Musi
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Track 1: Accounting, Finance, and I
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Figure 1: Lagos off shore survey po
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Abstract Challenges in the Era of G
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Table: Model Fitness Regression Sta
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Conclusion Challenges in the Era of
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37. Provision of sound education fo
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The cost structure Challenges in th
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Abstract The Changing Requirements
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The Model, Data and Variable Defini
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Track 8: Gender and Economic Develo
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Empirical results Challenges in the
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Abstract Gender, poverty and sustai
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Figure 1.1: Spread of directorships
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Theoretical Framework Challenges in
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Single 18.1 Masters and above 35.3
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Source: Field survey, 2010 Table 3:
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Track 9: Global Studies and Politic
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Conclusions and Implications Challe
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Abstract Exploring Organisational R
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district hospitals: Evidence from N
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Defining the Organisational Culture
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Table 1: A Summary of Operating Ban
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Discussion and Conclusion Challenge
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Abstract What does Globalization me
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7. I see globalization as providing
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Research Methods approach Challenge
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Statement of the Problem Challenges
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Convenient location of banks Challe
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Banks in Ghana Challenges in the Er
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References: Challenges in the Era o
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Figure 5: Causal loop diagram inclu
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The study seeks to: • examine typ
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Figure 2: Customer Perception of MT
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Relationship Commitment Total 1264.
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Factor Item Loading Imaginative 0.4
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Figure 1: Components of Data Analys
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Abstract Marketing Nigerian medicin
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References Challenges in the Era of
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Conclusion Dissatisfied 6 3.4 3.6 7
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Abstract Customer satisfaction with
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Methodology Challenges in the Era o
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Discussion Challenges in the Era of
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Postgraduate 19 Internet experience
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Average daily Internet hours z P-va
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Conclusion Challenges in the Era of
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GOVERNMENT MoFED SECTORS Structure
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Results Challenges in the Era of Gl
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Football Spectatorship Challenges i
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