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Challenges in the Era of Globalization - iaabd

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Proceed<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 12th Annual Conference © 2011 IAABD<br />

autocorrelation while <strong>the</strong> Jarque-Bera test for residual <strong>in</strong>dicates that <strong>the</strong> normality assumption is not<br />

violated. Also, <strong>the</strong>re is absence <strong>of</strong> both heteroskedasticity and ARCH effect <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> residuals, with <strong>the</strong><br />

latter ensur<strong>in</strong>g that <strong>the</strong>re is no loss <strong>of</strong> efficiency. Moreover <strong>the</strong> Ramsey Reset test shows that <strong>the</strong> model is<br />

well specified and that valid <strong>in</strong>ferences can be made from <strong>the</strong> results <strong>of</strong> this study.<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

-5<br />

-10<br />

-15<br />

-20<br />

Fig 4: CUSUM Test<br />

1.6<br />

1.6<br />

1.2<br />

1.2<br />

0.8<br />

0.8<br />

0.4<br />

0.4<br />

0.0<br />

0.0<br />

-0.4<br />

-0.4<br />

Fig 5: CUSUM <strong>of</strong> squares test<br />

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005<br />

1980<br />

1980<br />

CUSUM 5% Significance<br />

1985<br />

C U S 1985 U M<br />

C U S U M<br />

1990<br />

o f S q1990<br />

u a r e s<br />

o f S q u a r e s<br />

Additional tests conducted to ascerta<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> model for stability <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> parameters <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> equation also prove<br />

satisfactory. Both <strong>the</strong> CUSUM test (fig 4) and CUSUM <strong>of</strong> squares test (fig 5) f<strong>in</strong>d parameter stability.<br />

The CUSUM test (Brown, Durb<strong>in</strong>, and Evans, 1975) <strong>in</strong> fig 4 plots <strong>the</strong> cumulative sum as well as <strong>the</strong> 5%<br />

1995<br />

1995<br />

5 %<br />

5 %<br />

2000<br />

2005<br />

S2000<br />

ig<br />

n if<br />

ic<br />

a n 2005 c e<br />

S ig<br />

n if<br />

ic<br />

a n c e<br />

66

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