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Challenges in the Era of Globalization - iaabd

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<strong>Challenges</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Era</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Globalization</strong><br />

Edited by Emmanuel Obuah<br />

An Econometric Investigation <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> Inflation on F<strong>in</strong>ancial Development <strong>in</strong> Nigeria<br />

Babatunde O. Oke, okebabatunde@yahoo.co.uk<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance, Faculty <strong>of</strong> Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Adm<strong>in</strong>istration, University <strong>of</strong> Lagos, Nigeria.<br />

Obaji R. N, ritaobaji@yahoo.co.uk<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Adm<strong>in</strong>istration, Faculty <strong>of</strong> Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Adm<strong>in</strong>istration, University <strong>of</strong> Lagos,<br />

Nigeria.<br />

Abstract<br />

In this paper, we exam<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> l<strong>in</strong>k between f<strong>in</strong>ancial development and <strong>in</strong>flation <strong>in</strong> Nigeria. We set out to fill <strong>the</strong><br />

lacuna exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> literature s<strong>in</strong>ce only very few studies have exam<strong>in</strong>ed this nexus globally and none <strong>in</strong> Nigeria,<br />

to <strong>the</strong> best <strong>of</strong> our knowledge. We employ co<strong>in</strong>tegration and error correction methodology us<strong>in</strong>g annual<br />

macroeconomic data from <strong>the</strong> Central Bank <strong>of</strong> Nigeria (CBN) for <strong>the</strong> period 1972 to 2007. We confirm that <strong>the</strong><br />

relevant variables are co<strong>in</strong>tegrated, mean<strong>in</strong>g that <strong>the</strong>re exists a long run relationship among <strong>the</strong> variables <strong>in</strong><br />

question. Fur<strong>the</strong>r analyses show that <strong>in</strong>flation negatively and significantly affects f<strong>in</strong>ancial development <strong>in</strong> Nigeria<br />

at 5 percent level dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> period under consideration. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, <strong>in</strong>flation is detrimental to f<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />

development <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> country. This result is <strong>in</strong> agreement with a recent study by Bittencourt (2008) for Brazil and an<br />

earlier study by Boyd, Lev<strong>in</strong>e and Smith (2001) for 100 countries over <strong>the</strong> period 1960–1995. The ma<strong>in</strong> policy<br />

implication <strong>of</strong> this study is that, <strong>in</strong> order to achieve a growth enhanc<strong>in</strong>g f<strong>in</strong>ancial development <strong>in</strong> Nigeria,<br />

appropriate policies must be put <strong>in</strong> place to curtail <strong>in</strong>flation. This <strong>in</strong> part expla<strong>in</strong>s why <strong>in</strong>flation target<strong>in</strong>g has been<br />

adopted today by many nations.<br />

INTRODUCTION<br />

Among <strong>the</strong> many controversies <strong>in</strong> economic and f<strong>in</strong>ancial literature are <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ance-growth argument and<br />

<strong>in</strong>flation-growth debate. In <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>, most <strong>the</strong>oretical and empirical literature favour a f<strong>in</strong>ance driven<br />

growth and an <strong>in</strong>flation h<strong>in</strong>der<strong>in</strong>g growth propositions. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, it is generally believe that<br />

f<strong>in</strong>ancial development promotes economic growth while <strong>in</strong>flation is detrimental to economic growth.<br />

In Nigeria, policy makers tend to favour a “f<strong>in</strong>ance-led growth” hypo<strong>the</strong>sis by constantly t<strong>in</strong>ker<strong>in</strong>g with<br />

<strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial system with <strong>the</strong> aim <strong>of</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> sector for optimal performance. Notably, <strong>the</strong><br />

Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) <strong>of</strong> 1986 <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial sector reform, which brought<br />

about a phenomenal <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>stitutions. The recapitalization and<br />

consolidation exercise carried out by <strong>the</strong> monetary authorities <strong>in</strong> 2005 (necessitated by wanton distress <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> bank<strong>in</strong>g sector <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> early 1990s and low capitalization, among o<strong>the</strong>rs) has seen <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>stitutions <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> sector gett<strong>in</strong>g th<strong>in</strong>ner and fitter. F<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>dicators have also improved s<strong>in</strong>ce 2005.<br />

Accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> Central Bank <strong>of</strong> Nigeria (CBN 2006), by 2006 end<strong>in</strong>g, f<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>stitutions <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Nigerian f<strong>in</strong>ancial system comprised <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Central Bank <strong>of</strong> Nigeria (CBN), <strong>the</strong> Securities and Exchange<br />

Commission (SEC), <strong>the</strong> Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), <strong>the</strong> National Insurance<br />

Commission (NAICOM), <strong>the</strong> Nigerian Pension Commission, 25 deposit money banks, 750 community<br />

banks (CBs), 7 micr<strong>of</strong><strong>in</strong>ance banks (MFBs), 112 f<strong>in</strong>ance companies (FCs), 322 bureaux-de-change<br />

(BDCs), 1 stock exchange, 1 community exchange, 5 discount houses, 91 mortgage <strong>in</strong>stitutions, 5<br />

development f<strong>in</strong>ance <strong>in</strong>stitutions, 103 <strong>in</strong>surance companies, and 581 brokers. Moreover, at <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong><br />

2007, broad money (M2) grew by 106.40 percent from N 2814846.1million <strong>in</strong> 2005 to N 5809826.5<br />

59

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