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Challenges in the Era of Globalization - iaabd

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Proceed<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 12th Annual Conference © 2011 IAABD<br />

Literature Review<br />

Gold was once considered as <strong>the</strong> standard currency, and researches on gold have covered both its<br />

f<strong>in</strong>ancial and goods properties. Jastram (1977) studied <strong>the</strong> changes <strong>of</strong> gold price from 1960 to 1976 and<br />

concluded that gold price had a better market tendency <strong>in</strong> currency deflation than <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>flation.<br />

M.C.Marcuzzo & A. Rosselli (1987) presented a new gold check number formula and modalized <strong>the</strong><br />

fluctuation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> gold market after a study <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> acquirable data <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> gold market from <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> 18 th<br />

century to <strong>the</strong> beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> 19 th century. They put forward <strong>the</strong> equilibrium mechanism <strong>of</strong> gold motion,<br />

that was: <strong>in</strong> world range, gold moved from trade deficit countries to trade favorable balance countries,<br />

which made an adjustment and restoration <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational balance-<strong>of</strong>-payments. By apply<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ory<br />

model and through an empirical study, Larry & Fabio (1996) proved that <strong>the</strong> change <strong>of</strong> exchange was <strong>the</strong><br />

ma<strong>in</strong> cause <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> change <strong>of</strong> gold price. Harmston (1998) showed through a case study that <strong>the</strong> tendency<br />

<strong>of</strong> gold price had a negative correlation with <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> American treasury and long-term governmental<br />

bond. B. Adrangi, A.Chatrath, and R.C.David (2000) explored <strong>the</strong> gold price relevance <strong>of</strong> different<br />

markets through a case study <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> strategic relation between <strong>the</strong> market prices <strong>of</strong> gold and silver.<br />

Graham Smith (2001) presented that gold price had an negative correlation with <strong>the</strong> stock <strong>in</strong>dex <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

ma<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustrial countries (like American Dow-Jones <strong>in</strong>dex). Col<strong>in</strong> Lawrence (2003) put forward that <strong>the</strong><br />

macro economic variance had no statistic dist<strong>in</strong>ctiveness with gold <strong>in</strong>vestment return, which was<br />

<strong>in</strong>dependent from bus<strong>in</strong>ess cycle, but had dist<strong>in</strong>ctive correlativity with f<strong>in</strong>ancial assets <strong>in</strong>dexes. Capie,<br />

Mills and Wood (2004) showed through empirical study that gold price had a negative correlation with<br />

<strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> currency exchange rates. Paul Burton (2005) po<strong>in</strong>ted out that gold ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>ed an average cost<br />

price <strong>of</strong> about $250 per ounce on <strong>the</strong> whole. Zhai M<strong>in</strong> & Hua Renhai (2006) carried out an empirical<br />

study <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> dynamic relation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> spot gold price <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>ese and <strong>in</strong>ternational markets with Johansen<br />

co-<strong>in</strong>tegration test, <strong>the</strong> error analysis model, Granger causal test and <strong>the</strong> impulse response analysis. The<br />

study showed that <strong>the</strong>re existed a long-term balance between <strong>the</strong> gold prices <strong>of</strong> Shanghai Gold Exchange<br />

and London Gold Market, which <strong>in</strong>teracted with each o<strong>the</strong>r and London Gold Market had a stronger<br />

<strong>in</strong>fluence on Shanghai Gold Exchanges. Lev<strong>in</strong> & Wright (2006) held that from a long-term viewpo<strong>in</strong>t,<br />

gold price had a long-term stable positive correlation with American price level, so gold could be used as<br />

<strong>the</strong> hedg<strong>in</strong>g tool <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>flation; from a short-term viewpo<strong>in</strong>t, American <strong>in</strong>flation and its fluctuation rate and<br />

credit risk had an apparent positive correlation with gold price. Liu Shuguang & Hu Zaiyong (2008)<br />

found out <strong>the</strong> consistence <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> price change <strong>of</strong> gold and American dollar through empirical analysis and<br />

proposed that Ch<strong>in</strong>ese government should take gold as part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial assets and <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong><br />

proportion <strong>of</strong> gold <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational reserve.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> research field <strong>of</strong> government regulation, <strong>the</strong>re are lots <strong>of</strong> research f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs that have contributed a<br />

lot to <strong>the</strong> found<strong>in</strong>g and research <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economics control, like Stigler,<br />

1971¡Peltzmam 1976¡Kahn 1980¡Hahn Robert W., & H. John, 1991; Hahn Robert W, 1993;<br />

S.Andrei& V. S. Cass R., 1996; Geroge A.Ste<strong>in</strong>er& John F. Ste<strong>in</strong>er, 1997; Richard A. Posner, 2000;<br />

Schwartz A, 2000; Wang Junhao, 2001; H. Robert W. & S.Cass R., 2002; Skogstad, 2003¢G. Edward &<br />

A. Shleifer, 2003; Djankov Simeon etc, 2003; Andreas 2004¡Ju Yang, 2008,2009.<br />

Though <strong>the</strong>re are so many relative research f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> this field, deficiency and research blank still exist:<br />

<strong>the</strong> government regulation strategies and methods <strong>in</strong> fac<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> challenges <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tegration <strong>of</strong> world<br />

economy, <strong>the</strong> prosperity <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational trade and <strong>the</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> global resources, etc.. Should Africa<br />

<strong>in</strong>crease its gold reserve? What should <strong>the</strong> government do to achieve effective regulation? This paper<br />

attempts to put forward <strong>the</strong> general effective strategies and methods <strong>of</strong> African government regulation on<br />

gold market.<br />

Fur<strong>the</strong>r Analysis<br />

Government regulation on gold market<br />

72

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