African Water Development Report 2006 - United Nations Economic ...

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Box 10.1: Africa Intertropical Convergence ZoneLatest Text SummaryMANAGING RISKSWhat a ride for the western region of the African ITCZ during the period from August 11-20 2005! Though Figure10.4 shows a near constant latitude, compared to the previous dekad, the region averaged from 10 degrees westto 10 degrees east, this is highly misleading for the fact that the position is averaged for the ten day period. The factis that two strong Easterly Waves that passed through the region, beginning on 14 August, brought rainfall to muchof western Africa, and caused a very large daily fluctuation in the ITCZ. For example, the ITCZ near 5 degreeswest longitude fluctuated from nearly 28 degrees north on 16 August to around 18 degrees north on 17 August.Strong northerly winds accompanied this movement, with dry air plunging southward to southern Burkina Faso onthe 16th. For the record, the ITCZ was located near 18.8N during the dekad, compared to a normal position ofaround 18.7N, and a position last dekad of 19.0N. From the latest analysis, it appears that the ITCZ has reachedits maximum northerly peak, at least in the eastern parts of Africa, though it is yet to be determined if such is thecase in the west.Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service, NOAAENSO and African Rainfall AnomaliesClimate variability over Africa is also determinedby prevailing patterns of sea surface temperature,atmospheric winds, regional climate fluctuationsin the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and by theEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.An El Niño condition occurs whenthe sea surface temperature changes by at least0,50C above normal while a La Niña event occurswhen the sea surface temperature changesby at least 0,50C below normal. El Niño conditionsbring droughts in some parts of the worldand floods in others just as does La Niña. This,together with the strength of the Trade Winds,force warm water to move eastwards towardsthe North and South American western coasts(El Niño) or westwards towards Asia (La Niña).During the past 50 years of monitoring sea-surfacetemperature changes related to the El Niño/La Niña events, the cycle has created El Niñoconditions 31 per cent of the time and La Niñaconditions 23 per cent of the time. Indian andAtlantic Oceans Sea Surface Temperatures arepart of the global ENSO teleconnection and aregenerally found to correlate to El Niño and LaNiña events.Over West Africa, El-Niño events tend to resultin enhanced north-easterlies / reduced monsoonflow, coupled to weakened upper easterlies, andhence dry conditions over West Africa close tothe surface position of the ITCZ, in July-Septemberas well as January-March. For instance,a strengthening of the African Easterly Jet, ornortherly wind anomalies across the Sahara, areshown to be related to drought conditions in theSahel ( July-September) and gulf of Guinea area( January-March), once the remote effect of SSTanomalies is removed.The ENSO also influences Southern Africa’s climatebringing either heavy rains often accompaniedby severe floods as in 1999/2000, or droughtas in 1982/83 when much of Southern Africawas severely affected (NDMC 2000). Four of themost powerful El Niño events in the past centuryoccurred since 1980 and the SADC region experienceda dry cycle during those periods. In thecase of an El Niño condition, Southern/SouthEastern Africa has less rainfall and is warmerthan usual, while in the case of a La Niña condition,there is more rainfall and it is cooler thanusual. Floods and Droughts in Southern Africa233
African Water Development Report 2006are normally linked to the fluctuations in frequency-magnituderelationship of the climaticfluxes over the subregion, attributed to the anomalousbehaviour of the ITCZ and SST’s over theIndian Ocean, induced by the El Niño SouthernOscillation (ENSO). El Niño /La Niña eventscommence 8-10 months prior to changes in theAtlantic and Indian Oceans and this can providesome long-range forecasting lead-time.La Niña appears to have the greatest influence onrainfall in Southern Africa and wet episodes tendto occur throughout the subcontinent during thefirst few months of the post-La Niña year. Thestrongest La Niña signals occur in Southern Africaand in extra-tropical North Africa. Some influencealso appears along the Guinea. Strong positiveanomalies occur toward the end of the La Niñayear and/or the beginning of the post-La Niñayear and the positive anomaly is evident throughouta six to eight-month period. This is roughly thetiming of the maximum negative anomaly in theseregions during the El Niño cycle.Unlike the positive anomalies, the negativeanomalies are generally relatively weak and arenot temporally persistent. The strongest negativeanomalies generally occur toward the end of theLa Niña year or the end of the year preceding it.As with El Niño, the La Niña signal is strongestduring the second half of the episode (i.e. thecold phase), but in contrast to El Niño, rainfall isabnormally high. La Niña’s influence on rainfalloccurs most consistently in southwestern Africa(Namibia and western South Africa, from 15°Sto 32°S), with increased rainfall occurring in thefirst few months of the post-La Niña year in 14of 17 events. Further east, in a sector stretchingfrom southern Tanzania (10°S) to South Africa(32°S), positive anomalies occur at roughlythe same time but less consistently. In the twonorthern African sectors, positive anomalies occurredin this same season just as consistently,but were generally weak. In the western highlandsof equatorial Africa positive anomalies alsooccurred in the second half of La Niña episodes,but during the summer season.Potential Hazards in AfricaThe people of Africa are exposed to a wide rangeof disasters that ahve seriously aggravated theContinent’s economic situation. Economic lossesand human sufferings from floods, drought,desertification, locust infestation, infectiousdiseases, epidemics, and armed conflicts are thedominant disasters that the people in the Africancountries face, and they have rendered the peopleutterly vulnerable. Disasters have aggravated Africa’seconomic situation. The cumulative effectof disasters include loss of property, injury, death,mounting food import bills, health hazards, environmentaldegradation, backward economicdevelopment, displaced people, refugees, and nutritionaldeficiency. Today, 175 million Africansout of a total population of 744 million (23.5 percent) are suffering from chronic hunger; this isan increase of 50 per cent from 25 years ago. Inmany African countries, up to half of the populationsuffers from absolute poverty. It is projectedthat Africa will be the only Continent to remainat the current level of poverty for another decade.More than 50 million Africans have beenaffected by disasters such as drought, floods, fire,war, epidemics, industrial and transport accidentsduring the last decade. The main naturaldisasters, Africa-wide, are related to climaticextremes. Droughts are endemic in both SouthernAfrica and the Sahelian region of westernand northern Africa. In some cases droughts areexacerbated by human-induced changes in landcover. “Climate change is projected to increasethe risk of drought over much of Southern Africain the 21st century, partly through alteringthe frequency of El Niño events,” Floods canoccur in arid areas as well as humid areas. Intropical, near-coastal regions, they generally resultfrom cyclones that can drop a year’s worthof rainfall in a day. Because coastal zones are flatand densely populated, and cyclones are large inextent, hundreds of people can be affected. Africais generally not very windy, but tropical cyclonescan have a destructive force, and severeconvective storms sometimes generate tornadoesin the humid interior. “Dust storms are a feature234
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AFRICANWATERDEVELOPMENTREPORT2006
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CONTENTSWater for Sustainable Socio
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis is the final v
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The African Water Development Repor
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INTRODUCTION - WATER FOR SUSTAINABL
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WATER FORSUSTAINABLESOCIO-ECONOMICD
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African Water Development Report 20
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INTERNATIONALAND AFRICANMILESTONESN
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INDICATORS -MEASURING THEPROGRESS O
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(i) Specific for a certain stress o
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Water and ecosystemWater and indust
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Purpose: Global water security prov
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Table 5.1: Adopted targets and indi
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Human Development Index (HDI): This
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The Environmental Sustainability In
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Significant Indicators - Libya1. Li
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ReferencesAfrica Facts: http://www.
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FRESHWATERRESOURCES INAFRICAThe mai
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annual flows of rivers and groundwa
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Fig. 4.3: Actual Renewable Water in
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Box 4.1: Water Availability and Ser
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Table 4.9: Surface Water by Watersh
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Table 4.12: Dynamics of Water Use,
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Figure 4.7: Major Groundwater Withd
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Annual freshwater withdrawals in Ea
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Fig. 4.12: Percentage of Domestic,
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Table 4.15: Desalination capacities
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Although some African countries hav
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Fig. 4.17: Water Poverty Index by S
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The problem of wastewater disposal
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FRESHWATER RESOURCES IN AFRICASourc
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Water Conference, December 3-7, 200
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PROTECTINGECOSYSTEMSIN AFRICAThe pr
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abstracted and flow regulated. Irri
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Fig. 6.2: Freshwater Ecosystem Area
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Figure 6.3: Water Availability and
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Table 6.4: Indication of the Microb
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Fertilisers are also a potential th
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Box 6.2Pollution Control - The Ethi
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Fig. 6.2: Freshwater Ecosystem Area
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Region/Country Mammals Birds Flower
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espective of the fact that some oth
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Protected areas in Africa occupy sl
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past few decades, population densit
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Fig. 6.12: Urban Ecosystem and Buil
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Fig. 6.13 Environmental Sustainabil
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Case Study: Sediment Control andAqu
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Fig 6.15: Comparison of Rainfall, D
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South Africa and Bophuthatswana. (D
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of interdependent factors which adv
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Referencesafrol News, 2001: Lake Ch
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United Nations Population Divison (
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Page 262 and 263: SHARING WATERFOR REGIONALINTEGRATIO
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Page 268 and 269: Box 11.3Emerging Principles Underly
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ENSURING THEKNOWLEDGE BASESince anc
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polluted due to overgrazing, and ce
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Box 16.2: Indigenous Knowledge on C
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The present day call for integrated
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cipitation monitoring; determinatio
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processes and situations or to an o
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Capacity Building in AfricaFrom the
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The requisite enabling environment
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African countries can obviously not
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the science and technology of the s
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Box 16.9: Research Institutions in
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Global Water Partnership ToolboxThe
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(a) Journal of Hydraulic Research:
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Key Outputs: The first steps for th
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Figure 16.6: Number of Radios per 1
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particular relevance to data collec
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of water in agriculture through imp
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The UNESCO Water Portal is intended
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IWRM Course Participants according
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5.. Alemayehu Tafesse (Ethiopia), 2
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GLOWA info gsf website: http://www.
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IMPLEMENTATIONOF TARGETS UNDERTHE A
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Public Participation;(d) Informatio
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a regional framework for Africa as
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Programme SubRegion Estimated Costs
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