African Water Development Report 2006 - United Nations Economic ...

African Water Development Report 2006(b) The conflicts caused by the social measuresapplied to overcome the natural resourcescarcity (internal conflicts, often directed atthe State and, therefore, a dangerous impetusfor external conflict).Countering the widely held opinion that waterscarcity entails prime risks of internationalconflicts over shared water resources, it is arguedthat the risk of conflicts within countriesis in fact larger, and that the risk of internationalconflict is derived from the necessity to avoidconflicts within countries, caused not by waterscarcity itself, but by the institutional changerequired to adapt to water scarcity. The potentialrisks of conflict are thus better analyzed ascaused by a social resource scarcity, rather thanby a natural resource scarcity of water (OhlssonL., 2002). Scarcity by definition entails increasedcompetition for a resource with increased economicvalue, and implies diminishing resourcesand/or pressure on the supply of available resourcesfrom an increasing demand. Attempts toovercome scarcities can be sought through twodistinct mechanisms: supply-side regulation anddemand-side regulation, in order to avoid competition,which is a potential source of conflict.Two levels of conflict are easily identified: nationaland international.In order to develop appropriate policy responses,there is a need for an understanding of how waterscarcity will develop in the medium term -up to around 2025.Availability of water resourcesThere is general awareness that water is a scarceresource. At the same, time there is also a commonperception that an abundance of water couldbe mobilized if socio-economic and technologicalconstraints could be overcome. It will be beneficialto both science and policy to have a clearerperception of how much annual water flow overthe continent is actually appropriated and howmuch is left for future demand increases. Froma conflict-analysis point of view, however, evapotranspiration(through rain-fed agriculture) isnot a cause of conflict. Conflicts are about gettingmore water for societal use, particularly forirrigated agriculture. Of more immediate policyinterest therefore is the calculation of availablerunoff, that is, the renewable flow replenishingall rivers, lakes, and groundwater reservoirs, fromwhich all water for irrigated agriculture, societaluse and industrial needs are taken.Three categories of water use can be identified.According to Ohlsson L. (2002), these are:This simple analytic framework supports thischapter’s argument, as Ohlsson L. (2002) statesthat:(a) Attempts to increase supply are the drivingforce for water conflicts between countries;(b) Attempts to manage demand will, by definition,alleviate this pressure;(c) The driving force for conflicts within countriesat present are attempts to increasesupply, resulting in competition betweendifferent sectors of society and differentpopulation groups;(d) But that attempts to increase supply will bynecessity be superseded by demand regulation.(a) Withdrawals or abstractions, that is, watertaken from rivers, lakes, and aquifers, forhuman activities (also known as water demandor water use);(b) Consumption; water that is withdrawn insuch a way that it cannot later be reused(mainly by agriculture but also as a result of,for example, pollution);(c) Human needs; for what is known as “instreampurposes” (mainly to maintain wetlandsand aquatic eco-systems, water-coursesas transportation routes, or for aestheticand recreational purposes).Water scarcityAs a rule of thumb, hydrologists use the level of262