rivista italiana di economia demografia e statistica - Sieds

70
Volume LXIII nn. 3-4 – Luglio-Dicembre 2009
provenienti dal modello, ai fini di eventuali interventi di politica economica,
appaiono piuttosto ragionevoli: i Paesi con effetto Quantità negativo dovrebbero
incrementare la spesa sociale e i trasferimenti alle famiglie. Relativamente
all’effetto Distribuzione, seppur residuale, emerge invece che nei Paesi dove è
maggiore la platea dei beneficiari di trasferimenti governativi c’è maggiore
probabilità di uscita.
Riferimenti bibliografici
Anderson D.A. e Aitkin M. 1985. Variance component models with binary response:
interviewer variability. Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series B, vol. 47, pp 203-210.
Gelman A. e Hill J. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical
Models. Cambridge University Press.
Goldstein H. 1995. Multilevel Statistical Models. Edward Arnold, London.
Hox J.J. 1995. Applied multilevel analysis. TT-Publikaties, Amsterdam.
Joe H. 2008. Accuracy of Laplace approximation for discrete response mixed models.
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol. 52 (issue 12), pp 5066-5074. Elsevier
Science Publishers B. V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
R Development Core Team. 2005. R: A language and environment for statistical
computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
Snijders T. e Bosker R. 1999. An Introduction to Basic and Advanced Multilevel Modeling.
Sage, London.
SUMMARY
This paper analyses the impact of some European countries’ policies in terms of
monetary social transfers on the reduction of poverty risk in households with
minors. Using micro data collected in Eu-silc 2006 (European Statistics on Income
and Living Conditions), we employ a two-level logistic regression model.
It turns out an overall country effect, which could be splitted into two partitions:
one due to different policies relative to quantitative aspects (Quantity), the other to
distributive ones (Distribution). European countries with a greater positive effect
on the exit from the poverty risk after transfers are the Nordic and the Western
ones; Mediterranean and Baltic ones have the opposite effect. Moreover, the
Quantity effect is larger than the Distribution one.
Generally speaking, the model stresses out that countries with a negative
Quantity effect should increase social expenditure and transfers to households;
concerning the Distribution effect, although residual, in countries with the highest
beneficiaries’ shares of social transfers there is a higher probability of exit.
Andrea CUTILLO, ISTAT, Condizioni e Qualità della Vita.
Daniela LO CASTRO, ISTAT, Condizioni Economiche delle Famiglie.
Isabella SICILIANI, ISTAT,Condizioni Economiche delle Famiglie.