להורדה - מכון ירושלים לחקר ישראל

כל הזכויות שמורות למכון ירושלים לחקר ישראלtime there has been a dramatic increase in the proportions of the Ultra-Orthodox(^1Haredi") population, also due to very high fertility rates. Today, more thanhalf of the residents of Jerusalem are either not Jewish or Haredi. In addition tohaving large families, the level of income of these two population groups, and ofthe city, is further diminished by their low rate of participation in the labor force(mostly of women among the Palestinians, and of men among the Haredim) andlow earning potential.The poverty of the population results in a poor city and municipality, hencelow tax revenue, poor services and an eroded economic base; these, in turn, bringabout a chain reaction that includes the departure of families with higher incomeand socioeconomic status — as well as a concomitant high tax burden - out tosurrounding metropolitan areas or even further away.A careful analysis of trends over the last decade shows that the increase inthe proportion of the Palestinian population contributed only about 10 percentto the deterioration of income and rise in poverty in Jerusalem; all the rest isexplained by developments among the Jewish majority, most of it by the rise inthe proportion of the Haredi population and the decline in its income level. Theoutward migration of strong elements within the non-Haredi, general, population,contributes to the decline in the socioeconomic level of this group too.If current demographic, work habits and migration trends continue, by 2020the Haredipopulation will become almost half of the Jewish population and thepresent economic trends will only accelerate. This future image can already beobserved: in 2005 children attending Haredi schools in grades 1-6 comprised56% of all Jewish children attending school in the city, though they accounted foronly 15% back in 1975.In addition to the demographic developments, one can attribute part of thedeterioration in the status of Jerusalem to the neglect and deterioration of thecity center, to some extent a result of the intensive development of satelliteneighborhoods at its outskirts. Another part of the decline is attributable to theongoing precarious security situation in the city (which has improved somewhatonly recently) and the general political uncertainty in the region. On top of allthese, there is a dearth of housing and employment opportunities. The generalpicture is one of a city in decline - an image that itself exacerbates the negativetrends.vi