Zbornik radova Koridor 10 - Kirilo SaviÄ

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3rd International Scientific and Professional Conference CORRIDOR 10 - a sustainable way of integrations 3 MODEL PREDVIĐANJA TRGOVINSKIH TOKOVA U BUDUĆNOSTI U cilju podrške pred studije izvodljivosti, analiza potražnje je izvršena u odgovarajućim budućim scenarijima, koji se odnose na završetak koridora IV, VIII i X i proširenju trgovinskih sporazuma šengenskog tipa u korist Turske i drugih Severnih afričkih zemalja: za ovaj cilj, primenjen je sistem matematičkih modela u samoj analizi, a rezultati su dati u nastavku. 3.1 Završetak odgovarajućih Pan-Evropskih koridora Prvo, na osnovu modela gravitacije prikazanog u pred-studiji izvodljivosti, prikazane su o/d matrice budućih zahteva (Tabela 4 i Tabela 5) u odnosu na izvoznu i uvoznu trgovinu. Matrice su postavljene pod pretpostavkom scenariju završetka Koridora IV, VIII i X. Zatim su vrednosti iz matrica uzeti za simulaciju predstavljenu ispod (Tabela 6) u smislu željenih linija. Glavni dokaz je značajan porast tokova tranzitne trgovine na Balkanu, na primer, kod Turske tranzitne trgovine u drumskom saobraćaju očekuje se povećanje od 1,74 miliona tona godišnje prema Severu i 2,21 miliona tona godišnje prema Jugu, što će rezultirati povećanjem tranzita Srpske trgovine. Rezultati iz pred-studije izvodljivosti pokazuju da neophodan uslov smanjenja konkurentnosti koridora IV a povćanje efektivnosti koridora X predstavljaju smanje kamionske vozarine koje se primenjuju u Republici Srbiji ali i povećanje efektivnosti i ubrzanje carinskih procedura. destination country origin country Albania Bosnia Herc Bulgaria Croatia Greece Macedonia Montenegro Romania Serbia Turkey Albania 5,671 33,930 218,393 65,857 1,362,708 294,238 14,569 30,425 433,321 642,568 Algeria 3 3,632 132,173 6,618 184,186 236 - 110,105 19,858 647,991 Austria 982 434,952 295,995 567,449 149,148 18,674 947 684,201 331,266 427,186 Belarus 11 16 4,950 1,792 8,342 9,621 - 5,709 7,883 102,565 Belgium 1,291 23,988 276,713 23,488 350,491 32,836 25 287,045 109,445 1,434,925 Bosnia Hercegovina 9,011 - 118,814 2,145,144 23,372 128,393 11,647 121,813 1,352,529 113,610 Bulgaria 22,042 147,500 - 267,702 1,717,034 963,395 979 1,790,166 666,880 1,539,344 Croatia 1,497 5,783,139 100,805 - 107,131 224,502 4,720 43,697 469,998 158,468 Cyprus 149 179 90,450 16,395 576,723 4,366 - 64,371 117,890 821,575 Czech Republic 714 356,944 104,400 106,878 138,321 14,486 4,703 301,378 128,969 229,383 Denmark 226 3,416 22,326 10,682 61,535 1,364 166 40,687 6,258 154,532 Egypt 2,058 12,512 59,764 164,350 149,331 1,650 2 483,701 23,148 632,864 Estonia - 189 1,076 330 7,776 199 0 4,534 1,255 34,506 Finland 11 517 28,151 8,545 87,439 75 0 41,989 5,105 159,409 France 12,786 28,719 226,503 80,772 1,372,799 19,426 273 798,086 220,248 1,431,822 Georgia 0 3 14,339 4,281 17,674 34 - 11,171 1,365 825,901 Germany 8,919 169,259 896,981 358,031 1,724,891 119,045 3,807 1,489,647 814,483 3,281,628 Greece 293,123 11,955 2,516,205 26,391 - 615,402 26,224 878,278 246,297 2,172,949 Hungary 81 257,513 148,755 706,237 184,013 16,817 47,367 2,357,534 468,607 315,139 Ireland 12 523 6,909 4,902 27,582 7 136 11,378 15,657 355,113 Israel 2 227 93,108 6,019 265,980 265 - 160,898 12,947 1,615,554 Italy 473,521 699,188 1,229,808 7,996,769 2,172,916 170,528 331,111 2,966,802 926,021 6,420,942 Jordan 23 404 7,660 409 22,404 34 - 84,449 4,473 286,565 Latvia 47 14 4,962 3,072 9,945 1,648 - 4,347 3,367 43,373 Lebanon 5 28 18,664 533 97,601 31 - 99,696 4,044 348,515 Libya 3 1,993 528 1,602 30,639 93 - 7,341 256 446,726 Lithuania - 200 10,704 4,133 17,345 865 89 15,310 2,343 69,244 Luxembourg 18 5,523 567 4,231 1,197 2 - 1,644 1,901 22,258 Macedonia 897,876 54,879 852,537 72,112 697,369 - 1,028 39,985 753,188 191,970 Malta 0 0 64,959 200 23,177 3,160 - 66,788 10,538 22,980 Moldova 37 36 19,677 1,172 14,067 323 - 362,311 4,740 99,131 Montenegro 31,262 194,849 6,655 309,277 95,922 32,141 - 73,658 1,175,078 7,184 Morocco 12 112 54,772 11,407 56,077 451 - 58,250 29,623 746,038 Netherlands 174 16,710 172,270 55,799 443,126 12,940 892 409,959 77,149 1,209,887 Norway 30 2,448 10,985 3,702 37,814 901 33 27,042 2,191 60,981 Poland 298 438,449 231,173 92,253 317,579 11,292 183 415,023 131,264 643,607 Portugal 0 834 32,863 4,157 67,491 23,011 0 38,201 60,328 654,054 Romania 4,123 870,689 2,218,705 295,720 1,207,047 52,731 144 - 1,872,315 2,423,823 Russia 18,334 4,364 187,419 16,886 329,906 22,375 75 221,049 193,706 3,641,293 San Marino - - 30 295 876 - - 2,909 24 49 Serbia 167,348 1,271,051 490,068 590,779 168,680 1,580,513 200,360 535,600 - 249,496 Slovakia 113 11,706 123,028 52,818 194,385 10,074 191 263,380 142,487 166,458 Slovenia 642 633,331 247,779 2,758,570 555,023 80,660 15,297 92,114 352,783 114,221 Spain 21,062 12,004 493,024 99,111 895,325 186,246 1,004 687,564 101,934 4,314,538 Sweden 96,228 13,300 45,241 28,460 380,337 4,565 7 77,576 20,457 283,298 Switzerland 344 28,143 54,766 26,538 36,068 4,487 180 50,100 72,779 124,307 Syria 0 335 30,347 2,758 82,183 16 - 245,021 1,510 1,977,988 Tunisia 337 26 119,270 1,025 100,095 0 - 75,691 3,111 482,019 Turkey 50,960 57,037 3,388,356 174,987 854,620 66,461 114 4,995,117 76,968 - Ukraine 24 1,605 110,332 14,259 219,072 4,446 - 373,812 92,766 1,391,867 United Kingdom 26,597 4,625 239,686 48,222 1,043,534 24,717 206 328,971 98,532 2,575,752 Tabela 4 – Buduće o-d matrice (izražene u tona/godina): trgovinski tokovi iz Balkanskih zemalja u scenariju završetka koridora 4, 8 i 10 Belgrade, 2012 141
3rd International Scientific and Professional Conference CORRIDOR 10 - a sustainable way of integrations origin country destination country Albania Bosnia Herc Bulgaria Croatia Greece Macedonia Montenegro Romania Serbia Turkey Albania 5,671 9,011 22,042 1,497 293,123 897,876 31,262 4,123 167,348 50,960 Algeria 15,307 2,344 0 9,316 2,958 - - 2,609 1 1,588,009 Austria 35,384 208,901 594,616 972,619 503,893 46,764 20,107 1,295,349 349,330 720,320 Belarus 632 821 16,168 198,503 4,053 141 0 45,533 48,698 121,678 Belgium 4,900 28,056 305,486 69,869 956,928 7,189 740 368,508 57,349 2,680,499 Bosnia Hercegovina 33,930 - 147,500 5,783,139 11,955 54,879 194,849 870,689 1,271,051 57,037 Bulgaria 218,393 118,814 - 100,805 2,516,205 852,537 6,655 2,218,705 490,068 3,388,356 Croatia 65,857 2,145,144 267,702 - 26,391 72,112 309,277 295,720 590,779 174,987 Cyprus 6,059 469 141,194 3,269 613,916 458 2 129,955 1,982 239,551 Czech Republic 18,171 281,387 311,982 400,326 226,263 27,316 15,374 985,149 183,499 180,382 Denmark 1,581 6,147 47,064 42,009 213,312 5,155 148 93,659 12,388 493,795 Egypt 70,013 29,744 84,295 32,166 708,223 22,996 36 127,768 23,304 1,917,531 Estonia 0 2,167 6,342 1,774 11,432 113 12 7,361 2,149 543,332 Finland 1,330 3,005 53,350 22,521 354,645 1,702 6 53,748 21,898 552,840 France 11,180 35,927 173,811 115,742 2,075,858 10,514 1,774 872,718 119,778 1,715,481 Georgia 13,112 4 59,004 39 28,375 6 - 525 2,284 715,258 Germany 88,974 255,202 1,084,718 706,826 2,788,554 74,953 12,988 2,628,438 498,502 3,734,250 Greece 1,362,708 23,372 1,717,034 107,131 - 697,369 95,922 1,207,047 168,680 854,620 Hungary 26,448 441,471 547,173 770,556 1,067,621 57,941 10,176 6,309,341 710,802 568,015 Ireland 754 2,102 7,891 3,203 27,472 1,072 30 21,517 4,443 51,799 Israel 1,532 957 26,473 7,097 134,948 1,986 - 48,575 10,121 838,459 Italy 1,709,540 362,675 1,015,770 2,007,790 4,388,941 65,489 100,324 2,488,056 470,109 2,165,978 Jordan 301 93 2,530 31 5,091 246 - 5,246 706 19,120 Latvia 26 67 1,902 1,008 18,117 29 1 4,986 125 10,255 Lebanon 15,686 63 1,280 266 145,566 48 - 2,832 56 362,463 Libya - 525 465 2,119 136,383 406 - 37,304 1,386 592,825 Lithuania 10 316 10,414 11,829 27,916 290 37 41,185 2,454 440,650 Luxembourg 2,339 2,261 7,485 4,151 296,243 328 4 63,784 2,428 115,685 Macedonia 294,238 128,393 963,395 224,502 615,402 - 32,141 52,731 1,580,513 66,461 Malta 5 1 341 257 847 0 - 23,815 15 21,907 Moldova 20,457 685 53,760 1,101 62,355 143 0 398,825 20,290 96,679 Montenegro 14,569 11,647 979 4,720 26,224 1,028 - 144 200,360 114 Morocco 331 431 279,951 331,033 69,920 156 - 214,444 7,691 528,127 Netherlands 11,953 39,239 223,050 144,154 1,248,084 20,014 6,813 630,531 92,476 2,359,595 Norway 743 783 10,255 10,395 134,867 2,590 9 37,615 8,322 440,929 Poland 62,728 51,824 333,559 255,314 475,016 306,388 11,035 2,757,951 234,435 388,661 Portugal 5,289 2,767 9,927 10,081 72,217 495 4 29,812 1,881 153,345 Romania 30,425 121,813 1,790,166 43,697 878,278 39,985 73,658 - 535,600 4,995,117 Russia 424,047 152,175 2,633,612 590,441 1,721,770 44,697 101,269 4,864,609 1,749,851 25,720,208 San Marino 159 - 168 36 1,565 - - 3,027 35 16 Serbia 433,321 1,352,529 666,880 469,998 246,297 753,188 1,175,078 1,872,315 - 76,968 Slovakia 5,079 68,345 123,911 173,948 167,387 23,961 681 1,320,398 662,150 547,494 Slovenia 9,829 315,752 101,535 1,063,404 57,188 73,393 32,942 175,221 334,631 83,932 Spain 12,250 24,238 204,544 153,832 892,420 9,877 3,112 294,157 57,780 1,317,904 Sweden 2,083 11,832 49,257 42,922 236,128 3,818 994 106,610 71,947 2,603,435 Switzerland 19,945 282,725 192,689 41,003 34,451 14,571 2,698 104,232 63,462 166,605 Syria 1,525 2,352 214,905 1,006 290,917 43 - 77,726 115,895 883,222 Tunisia 4,662 427 56,648 53,363 64,829 128 - 28,031 342 495,622 Turkey 642,568 113,610 1,539,344 158,468 2,172,949 191,970 7,184 2,423,823 249,496 - Ukraine 236,520 118,026 4,683,189 190,541 548,281 250,004 - 3,191,540 2,324,259 11,309,373 United Kingdom 10,177 5,891 285,415 35,529 735,225 4,645 1,757 288,357 26,425 3,549,380 Tabela 5 – Buduće o-d matrice (izražene u tona/godina): trgovinski tokovi prema Balkanskim zemaljama u scenariju završetka koridora 4, 8 i 10 Tabela 6 – Trgovinski tokovi između odabranih zemalja na osnovu o-d matrica Tabela 4 i Tabela 5 Belgrade, 2012 142
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Zbornik radova Koridor 10 - Kirilo SaviÄ

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