Zbornik radova Koridor 10 - Kirilo Savić

3rd International Scientific and Professional Conference
CORRIDOR 10 - a sustainable way of integrations
If actual economically useful life of the project exceeds the chosen time horizon, at the end of the
observed period the residual value is considered in the calculation. The residual value is calculated
by considering the residual market value of fixed assets (as if it were sold at the end of the considered
time horizon) or by computing with standard accounting economic depreciation formula.
When we perform financial analysis we usually consider next costs: investment costs of the project,
maintenance costs of public railway (routine and major) and traffic management costs, as benefits we
consider inflows from the charging of user fee for the use of public railway infrastructure and residual
value.
Basic for determining investment costs are pro forma invoices from design documentation. The
grounds for determining maintenance and traffic management costs are data of infrastructure
manager, the basic for defininga user fee is the Network statement of the Republic of Slovenia.
When preparing economic analysis we consider the same costs as within financial analysis, converted
in economic values by applying conversion factors. As benefits, that single project bring about, we
usually consider prevented exploitation costs, time savings for freight and passengers, prevented
costs of exceptional events (costs of economic losses due to premature death or injuries and other
material costs) prevented external costs and residual value. We also describe benefits that cannot be
monetised.
For evaluation of economic benefits we use data from the following documents:
- The basis for determination of savings in exploitation costs of traction vehicle/unit are data of
transport operator;
- The description of the benefits from the improved traffic safety and prevention of exceptional
events is based on Reports on exceptional events, that are annually prepared by public
railway infrastructure manager in Republic of Slovenia;
- The external costs are adopted from documents External costs of transport, update study
(2004)and Handbook on estimation of external costs in the transport sector (IWW, University
of Gdansk, INFRAS, ISI, February 2008);
- To determine the values of travel time savings and economic losses due to premature death
or personal injury are data from the document HEATCO: Developing Harmonised European
Approaches for Transport Costing and Project Assessment; Proposal for Harmonised
Guidelines (2006).
Sensitivity testing of evaluation elements and assumptions is performed with sensitivity and risk
analyses. Sensitivity analysis allows the determination of the critical variables or parameters of the
model. Such variables are those whose variations, positive or negative, have the greatest impact on a
project’s financial and/or economic performance. A risk assessment consists of studying the
probability that a project will achieve satisfactory performance/benefits.
3. CALCULATION OF PROFITABILITY OF INVESTMENTS, THAT WERE TREATED IN THE
STUDY “PUBLIC RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT NEEDS IN SLOVENIA”
In 2011 Institute of Traffic and Transport Ljubljanadraw up a study“Public railway infrastructure
development needs in Slovenia”. The study examines the possibility of rail transport subsystem
upgrades and gives the basis for long-term plan for the development of public railway infrastructure in
the next 20 year period. That development plan will, on the basis of railway transport subsystem
optimisation and strengthening of its efficiency, enable and encourage further balanced and
sustainable development of transport subsystem as a whole as well as further strengthening of
Slovenian economy competitiveness.
As part of the study we also prepared financial and economic analysis that shows profitability of
planned investments in public railway infrastructure in Republic of Slovenia on lines that are part of
Pan-European corridors V. and X.Financial and economic analyses were made on the basis of
estimation of future traffic flows in Slovenia and its neighborhood and on that ground proposed
investment measures in the upgrading and new-construction of the main corridor railway lines in
Slovenia. Considering capacity of public railway infrastructure and term of saturation of lines,
investment measures were defined, proposed and evaluated within the study, as follows:
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