Zbornik radova Koridor 10 - Kirilo SaviÄ

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3rd International Scientific and Professional Conference CORRIDOR 10 - a sustainable way of integrations Country Passenger fare Freight tariff Tariff per rtu China 0.043 0.023 Russia 0.046 0.022 Czech 0.063 0.071 Poland 0.065 0.061 Germany 0.107 0.033 France 0.121 0.036 Canada 0.128 0.018 USA 0.336 0.015 [€ cent] 0.033 0.035 0.067 0.063 0.070 0.079 0.073 0.176 Table 1. Passenger fare, freight tariff and tariff per rtu for different countries The horizontal line in Figure 7 was drawn assuming an acceptable tariff of 10 US$ cents per rail traffic unit, which can be considered high regarding values in Table 1. This being the case, any project falling above the line would require government subsidies. As an example, for the assumptions made, if the construction cost is $6 million/km and the required IRR is 8%, only projects with an initial traffic above 650 million rtu per year would not require government subsidies. Such threshold increases if an IRR of 8% is considered satisfactory. In any case, such traffic levels are well above what can be expected on the Serbian railways. Consequently, for the success of rail projects, relatively high construction (and/or operation) subsidies by governments would be required. The analysis described above, using the graphical financial model adapted for railways, was carried out using assumptions for a hypothetical rail project. However, the results do illustrate the main problems with railway projects. 5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Although rail systems are generally considered as a loss making, the transfer of traffic from road to rail is a declared goal of both the European Union and many individual governments. This transfer is mainly motivated by increased ecological awareness, so the race for sustainable transport became a global phenomenon. Modern European railways operate under the conditions of regulated competition and connection with other modes of transportation via development of Trans-European Traffic Network. Since Serbian railways are part of this network, it is necessary to prepare strategic development plan and to prepare implementation of the projects within the network. But, Serbian Railway Company is also facing other problems, such as need to increase rail productivity and financial viability. This paper presented recently developed World Bank toolkit for financial improvements in rail sector. It can be used for detailed analysis of all financial aspects that can face all, infrastructure, freight and passenger entity. Also, this toolkit allows prediction of future scenarios. This paper examined financial model for new rail projects. The financial analysis is performed on modified toolkit for Public Private Partnership in highways, also developed by the World Bank. The modified model was then used to run an example of sensitivity analysis of tariffs to factors such as the required project internal rate of return, level of government subsidies, construction costs, and initial traffic. Results confirm high dependency of rail system from government subsidy and that it should only be pursued rail investments on which is expected high traffic density. Belgrade, 2012 67
3rd International Scientific and Professional Conference CORRIDOR 10 - a sustainable way of integrations ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia through the research projects “Research of technical-technological, staff and organisational capacity of Serbian Railways, from the viewpoint of current and future European Union requirements” (No. 36012) and “Reconstruction and revitalization of railway infrastructure in accordance with regional development” (No. 680-00-140/2012-09/10). REFERENCES [1] European Commission. White Paper - Roadmap to a single European transport area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system. Brussels, 2011. [2] Popovic Z., Puzavac L. and Lazarevic L. Improving the accessibility of passenger railways in the Republic of Serbia. Rail Technology Review, Vol. 65, Issue 02/2012, Hamburg, Germany, 2012. [3] World Bank, Transport Unit, Infrastructure Department, Europe and Central Asia Region. Railway reform in the Western Balkans. 2005. [4] Center for Strategic & International studies and Hellenic Centre for European Studies. Relinking the Western Balkans - The transportation dimension. Athens, 2010. [5] Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Review of transport of passengers and goods in 2010 and 2011. Belgrade, 2012. [6] Popovic Z., L. Lazarevic, and L. Puzavac. The Potential of Passenger Rail Transportation in the Republic of Serbia. CD-ROM. "The First International Conference on Railway Technology: Research, Development and Maintenance", Civil-Comp Press, Stirlingshire, UK, Paper 168, 2012. [7] Annex 1: Financial Model - Guidance for Users. World Bank. 2011. [8] Financial models. World Bank. http://www.ppiaf.org/sites/ppiaf.org/files/documents/toolkits/highwaystoolkit/6/financial_models /index.html [9] International Navigation Association. Economic aspects of inland waterways. Brussels, 2005. [10] Quiroga L.M. Ganzheitliche Optimierung des Instandhaltungsprozesses der Gleisgeometrie. PhD thesis, Fakultat für Maschinenbau der Technischen Universitat Carolo-Wilhelmina. Braunschweig, 2011. Belgrade, 2012 68
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Zbornik radova Koridor 10 - Kirilo SaviÄ