Zbornik radova Koridor 10 - Kirilo Savić

3rd International Scientific and Professional Conference
CORRIDOR 10 - a sustainable way of integrations
Figure 2 shows that in 1990 rail network used to carry almost three times higher traffic volume than
today. From 2000, t-km was increasing, with abrupt decrease in 2009 due to global recession. Current
freight traffic is about two times smaller than in 1990. Passenger traffic is in almost constant decrease
since 2000, so current p-km value is about eight times lower than in 1990.
The most important challenge for Serbian railways is to achieve higher productivity and therefore to
reduce operating subsidy from government i.e. to reduce the strain on the National budget. The overall
challenge is to produce a financially viable rail sector.
3. WORLD BANK TOOLKIT FOR FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE RAIL SECTOR
In 2011, the World Bank (WB) published "Railway Reform: Toolkit for Improving Rail Sector
Performance" [7]. The financial model in the toolkit demonstrates some key assumptions in
development of financial modeling for railway operations. This toolkit is harmonized with the EU
“acquis communautaire”, so it provides separated financial analysis of freight, passenger and
infrastructure operations. Therefore, users of the toolkit can be public and private railway operators,
government agencies, international organizations or similar. As there are railway operators that cover
different tasks, the toolkit also provides integrated analysis. The financial model structure included in
the toolkit, which consists of six modules, is shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Financial model structure in the World Bank Toolkit [7]
The first module is actually input for the financial model. It includes all necessary assumptions
regarding economic context, rail network and all revenues and costs. The second module deals with
the calculations for each entity.
Next two modules present results of calculations numerically and graphically, respectively, in
separated and consolidated form. Financial statements and charts show key operational and financial
results. The fifth module provides summaries of assumptions and outputs and a list of key operating
and financial ratios. The sixth module provides scenario analysis for sensitivity testing of key variables
and model calibration [7]. It is possible to do a consolidated scenario analysis, or separated for freight,
passenger and infrastructure entities.
The Toolkit can be used for analysis of different scenarios, one of which may be the analysis of
operating subsidies. Key variables that can be changed in this analysis are: multiplier and growth rate
for either freight tariff, or passenger fare or track access charge (depending on entity), multiplier and
growth rate for traffic, staff multiplier and capital expenditure multiplier. Influence of changes in key
variables is traced through cash flow and operating profit. Figure 4 shows interface for scenario
analysis of freight.
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