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Acknowledgments US Department of Transportation - BTS

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Gas PipelineThese statistics originate from Gas Facts, published annually by the American Gas Association (AGA).AGA data arebased on gas utilities participation and reporting to the Uniform Statistical Report and estimates for those companiesnot reporting based on recent historical experience. Varying percentages <strong>of</strong> nonreporters from year to year introduceminor reliability problems for time-series comparisons.TABLE 3-23. Employment in For-Hire <strong>Transportation</strong> and Selected <strong>Transportation</strong>-Related Industries (NAICS)Employment data by industry are from the National Employment, Hours, and Earnings estimates published by theBureau <strong>of</strong> Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. <strong>Department</strong> <strong>of</strong> Labor. These estimates originate from the Current EmploymentStatistics (CES) survey program. The CES is a monthly survey conducted by state employment security agencies incooperation with the BLS. The survey provides employment, hours, and earnings estimates based on payroll records<strong>of</strong> nonfarm business establishments, including government.BLS uses a stratified sample based on a sector's employment size, or the degree <strong>of</strong> variability among itsestablishments, or both. This ensures that BLS captures a more representative survey from employers with largepayrolls. Thus, large establishments are certain <strong>of</strong> selection while smaller ones have less <strong>of</strong> chance.Data CollectionData are collected electronically from about two-thirds <strong>of</strong> the respondents and by mail or fax from the remainder. Theprimary type <strong>of</strong> electronic reporting is touch-tone phone self-response; others are computer-assisted phoneinterviews and phone voice recognition technology. Increasingly, data are collected through electronic datainterchange from a small but growing number <strong>of</strong> companies that have a large number <strong>of</strong> establishments across thecountry. Mail respondents submit Form 790 to the BLS each month. It is then edited and returned to the respondentfor use again the following month. All firms with 250 employees or more are asked to participate in the survey, as wellas a sample <strong>of</strong> smaller firms.EstimationEmployment estimates are made at what is termed the basic estimating cell level and aggregated upward to broaderlevels <strong>of</strong> industry detail by simple addition. Basic cells are defined by industry (usually at the 3- or 4-digit SIC level)and are stratified within industry by geographic region and/or size class in the majority <strong>of</strong> cases. Within the wholesaletrade, retail trade, and services divisions, most industries are stratified into three to five size classes (beginning in1984).Most national employment estimates are multiplied by bias adjustment factors to produce the monthly publishedestimates. Bias adjustment factors are used primarily to compensate for the inability to capture the entry <strong>of</strong> new firmson a timely basis. New firms contribute a substantial amount to employment growth each year, but there is a lagbetween the creation <strong>of</strong> a firm and its inclusion on the sample frame (i.e., the Unemployment Insurance universe file).It is, therefore, necessary to use modeling techniques to capture this segment <strong>of</strong> the population. BLS also performsseasonal adjustments for certain SIC industries.AccuracyBLS does not publish data reliability information along with estimates. Instead, it provides estimation formula and thenecessary parameters so that users can estimate standard errors. For additional information, see the "ExplanatoryNotes and Estimates <strong>of</strong> Error" in the BLS monthly publication Employment and Earnings.The CES survey, which began over 50 years ago, predates the introduction <strong>of</strong> probability sampling as theinternationally recognized standard for sample surveys. Instead, a quota sample has been used since its inception.Quota samples are at risk for potentially significant biases, and recently completed BLS research suggests that,despite the large CES sample size, employment estimates based on that sample at times diverge substantially fromthose that a more representative sample would have been expected to produce. This leads to an over-reliance onbias adjustment in the estimation procedure. Because bias adjustment is primarily based on past experience, it islimited in its ability to accurately reflect changing economic conditions on a timely basis.

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