Thinking and Deciding

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582 SUBJECT INDEX odds, 104 omission bias, 299, 407, 476, 514 opportunity cost, 301 optimal risk, 498 order principle, 205 Oregon Health Plan, 312 outcome bias, 47, 65 overconfidence, 371 in entrepreneurs, 522 overweighing <strong>and</strong> underweighing probability, 266 own-waste bias, 430 panic attacks, 69 parallelogram, 22 Pareto optimality, 437 parochialism, 460 Pascal’s wager, 71, 238 Pascal, B., 104 person causation, 429 person tradeoff, 327 personal goals, 472, 473 personal vs. moral, 395 physical contact, 412 physiological measures, 45 pi (π) function, 263 Piaget, J., 393 planning defined, 11 planning fallacy, 378 plans, 471, 475 biases, 476 pleasure, 233 polarization, 209, 210, 439 policies, 471 polio vaccine, 514 positive <strong>and</strong> negative attributes, 301 possibilities, see search-inference framework precedent, 490 predicted utility, 258, 317, 323, 341 prediction, 13, 364 preference reversals, 292, 295, 301 prescriptive models, 3, 31, 54, 174, 517 hypothesis testing, 174 prevention focus, 302 pricing, 293 primacy effect, 205 prisoner’s dilemma, 443 probability accuracy, 137 biases, 159 calibration, 118, 139 coherence, 114 conditional, 114 defined, 104 frequencies, 126 frequency theory, 107 in hypothesis testing, 167 independence, 114 logical theory, 108 multiplication rule, 114 objective, 111 personal theory, 109 scoring rules, 119 subadditivity, 156 probability matching, 152 procedural justice, 418 process tracing, 34 projective tests, 192 prominence effect, 290, 336 promotion focus, 302 proportions vs. differences, 509 prospect theory, 262, 307 pi function, 263 reflection effect, 268 Value function, 267 protected values, 409, 414 protective behavior, 517 protective behavior, 516 prudence, 495 psychometric approach to risk, 503 punishment, 409, 430, 463 without deterrence, 430 pure time preference, 480 Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY), 316, 359
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Thinking and Deciding Fourth Editio
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Contents Preface to the fourth edit
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CONTENTS vii Coincidences .........
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CONTENTS ix Disappointment and elat
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CONTENTS xi Rule utilitarianism . .
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Preface to the fourth edition The f
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Part I THINKING IN GENERAL
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Chapter 1 What is thinking? Beginni
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THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 7 Le
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THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 9 Go
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THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 11 I
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THINKING ABOUT BELIEFS 13 Science d
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HOW DO SEARCH PROCESSES WORK? 15 of
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KNOWLEDGE, THINKING, AND UNDERSTAND
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CONCLUSION 29 on the highest standa
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32 THE STUDY OF THINKING Descriptiv
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34 THE STUDY OF THINKING The second
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36 THE STUDY OF THINKING 5. Maybe t
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38 THE STUDY OF THINKING that you w
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40 THE STUDY OF THINKING Tetlock fo
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42 THE STUDY OF THINKING Training a
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44 THE STUDY OF THINKING that appro
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46 THE STUDY OF THINKING must use a
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48 THE STUDY OF THINKING The purpos
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50 THE STUDY OF THINKING Incentives
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52 THE STUDY OF THINKING ably are n
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54 THE STUDY OF THINKING Developmen
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56 THE STUDY OF THINKING Table 2.1:
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58 THE STUDY OF THINKING our goals
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Chapter 3 Rationality In the case o
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GOOD THINKING AND GOAL ACHIEVEMENT
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GOOD THINKING AND GOAL ACHIEVEMENT
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RATIONALITY AND EMOTION 67 of how t
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RATIONALITY AND EMOTION 69 Because
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RATIONALITY AND BELIEF 71 Self-dece
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RATIONALITY AND BELIEF 73 From a no
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CONCLUSION 75 propose do not help u
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78 LOGIC answer. He reasons that al
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80 LOGIC Again, this sounds good, b
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82 LOGIC For each system of logic,
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84 LOGIC S: If you know a person, i
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86 LOGIC No A are B. All B are C. T
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88 LOGIC answer is, “None of the
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90 LOGIC before they were forced to
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92 LOGIC The same subject did not c
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94 LOGIC be made with such absolute
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96 LOGIC Formal syllogisms illustra
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Part II PROBABILITY AND BELIEF
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Chapter 5 Normative theory of proba
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NORMATIVE THEORY OF PROBABILITY 105
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WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 107 theory. Th
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WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 109 have it. L
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WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 111 The person
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WELL-JUSTIFIED PROBABILITY JUDGMENT
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EVALUATING PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS 11
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BAYES’S THEOREM 121 Certain scori
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BAYES’S THEOREM 123 Formulas for
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BAYES’S THEOREM 125 Figure 5.2: G
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BAYES’S THEOREM 127 other, that i
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BAYES’S THEOREM 129 males and fem
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BAYES’S THEOREM 131 Although the
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BAYES’S THEOREM 133 The difficult
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CONCLUSION 135 2. p(aids) =.0001, p
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138 DESCRIPTIVE THEORY OF PROBABILI
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162 HYPOTHESIS TESTING willing to m
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164 HYPOTHESIS TESTING not found, s
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166 HYPOTHESIS TESTING they are nev
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168 HYPOTHESIS TESTING given any ot
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170 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Bruner and h
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172 HYPOTHESIS TESTING hypothesis.
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174 HYPOTHESIS TESTING You open the
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176 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Both of thes
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178 HYPOTHESIS TESTING would certai
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180 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Table 7.2: Z
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182 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Table 7.5: T
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184 JUDGMENT OF CORRELATION AND CON
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200 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING t
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202 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING 5
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204 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING D
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206 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING b
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208 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING I
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210 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING s
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212 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING t
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214 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING o
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216 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING T
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218 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING (
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224 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING s
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226 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING B
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Part III DECISIONS AND PLANS
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Chapter 10 Normative theory of choi
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NORMATIVE THEORY OF CHOICE 235 We s
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EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 237 that pr
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EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 239 Table 1
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EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 241 are sti
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WHY EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY IS NORM
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THE UTILITY OF MONEY 251 we evaluat
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THE UTILITY OF MONEY 253 Figure 10.
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CONCLUSION 255 7. On the basis of y
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Chapter 11 Descriptive theory of ch
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BIAS IN DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
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BIAS IN DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
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PROSPECT THEORY 263 Probability: Th
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PROSPECT THEORY 265 asserts that on
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PROSPECT THEORY 267 A similar “th
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PROSPECT THEORY 269 care proportion
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PROSPECT THEORY 271 if X ≥ 0 and
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RANK-DEPENDENT UTILITY THEORIES 273
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EMOTIONAL EFFECTS OF OUTCOMES 275 E
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EMOTIONAL EFFECTS OF OUTCOMES 277 T
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EMOTIONAL EFFECTS OF OUTCOMES 279 a
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THE AMBIGUITY EFFECT 281 Table 11.7
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THE AMBIGUITY EFFECT 283 not the wo
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UNCERTAINTY AND REASONS FOR CHOICE
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CONCLUSION 287 imperfect correlatio
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290 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY if his c
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292 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY their be
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294 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY means. T
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296 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY for eval
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298 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY for the
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300 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY Behavior
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302 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY At other
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304 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY We sell
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306 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY either t
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308 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY You are
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Chapter 13 Utility measurement The
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DECISION ANALYSIS AND RELATED METHO
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DECISION ANALYSIS AND RELATED METHO
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 317 Many
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 319 Util
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 321 You
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 323 One
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 325 Figu
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 327 Time
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 329 resp
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 331 When
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 333 betw
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 335 The
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THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 337 bene
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CONCLUSION 339 win the $100, if all
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Chapter 14 Decision analysis and va
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DISCOVERING VALUES 343 why people c
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DISCOVERING VALUES 345 Part 1E2. Gr
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CONJOINT MEASUREMENT 347 Figure 14.
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MAUT AS A TYPE OF DECISION ANALYSIS
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RULES AND TRADEOFFS 357 People who
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THE VALUE OF HUMAN LIFE 359 to ask
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CONCLUSION 361 curriculum deals wit
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364 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT procedure
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366 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT Table 15.
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368 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT judgments
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370 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT mission,
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372 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT formula.
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374 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT 3. y = .6
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376 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT far, the
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378 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT Kahneman
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380 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT Anchoring
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382 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT search yo
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384 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT Table 15.
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386 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT each leve
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Chapter 16 Moral judgment and choic
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WHAT ARE MORAL JUDGMENTS? 391 From
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TYPES OF JUDGMENT 393 of opposing a
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TYPES OF JUDGMENT 395 if people tri
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UTILITARIANISM AS A NORMATIVE MODEL
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BIASES IN MORAL JUDGMENT? 407 effec
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BIASES IN MORAL JUDGMENT? 409 Other
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BIASES IN MORAL JUDGMENT? 411 in or
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BIASES IN MORAL JUDGMENT? 413 Secon
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CONCLUSION 415 Conclusion Any nonut
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Chapter 17 Fairness and justice Thi
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EQUITY THEORY: THE DESIRE FOR JUSTI
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UTILITARIANISM AND FAIRNESS 421 has
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UTILITARIANISM AND FAIRNESS 423 tha
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INTUITIONS 425 Error, power, and br
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INTUITIONS 427 The principle of max
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INTUITIONS 429 the punitive effects
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INTUITIONS 431 A second bias in jud
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INTUITIONS 433 Subjects may (again)
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NEGOTIATION 435 when subjects did w
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NEGOTIATION 437 outcomes for one pa
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NEGOTIATION 439 candid about what w
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Chapter 18 Social dilemmas: Coopera
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LABORATORY VERSIONS 443 Table 18.1:
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LABORATORY VERSIONS 445 Table 18.3:
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NORMATIVE AND PRESCRIPTIVE THEORY O
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MOTIVES IN SOCIAL DILEMMAS 449 effi
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MOTIVES IN SOCIAL DILEMMAS 451 doll
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MOTIVES IN SOCIAL DILEMMAS 453 fair
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MOTIVES IN SOCIAL DILEMMAS 455 The
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TRUST 457 Trust In the “minimum
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VOTERS’ ILLUSIONS 459 what is bes
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VOTERS’ ILLUSIONS 461 contributor
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SOLUTIONS TO SOCIAL DILEMMAS 463 Pe
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SOLUTIONS TO SOCIAL DILEMMAS 465 ea
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SOLUTIONS TO SOCIAL DILEMMAS 467 so
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CONCLUSION 469 affect others who ar
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472 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE time
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474 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE argu
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476 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE carr
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478 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE Disc
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480 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE This
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482 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE that
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484 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE Figu
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486 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE mere
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488 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE so t
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490 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE We c
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492 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE Emot
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494 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE Give
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496 DECISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE Conc
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498 RISK determinants of these prob
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500 RISK Torts A fourth mechanism i
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502 RISK different amounts, each wi
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504 RISK and whether the acceptable
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506 RISK Government agencies often
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508 RISK fell into a lake and a wom
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510 RISK times more likely than chr
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512 RISK Although Option 2 leads to
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514 RISK other things. People seem
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516 RISK A similar example comes fr
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518 RISK shey, Meszaros, and Kunreu
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520 RISK Benartzi and Thaler (1995)
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522 RISK will accrue to the enterpr
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524 RISK tant in explaining sociall
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References Adams, J. S. (1965). Ine
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REFERENCES 529 Attneave, F. (1953).
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REFERENCES 531 Baron, J., & Miller,
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REFERENCES 533 ior and Organization
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REFERENCES 535 Chapman, G. B., & Jo
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REFERENCES 537 Doherty, M. E., Myna
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REFERENCES 539 Fischhoff, B., Slovi
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REFERENCES 541 Grether, D. M., & Pl
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REFERENCES 543 Houston, D. A., Sher
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REFERENCES 545 Josephs, R. A., Larr
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REFERENCES 547 Kleinmuntz, D. N., F
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REFERENCES 549 Lichtenstein, S., Fi
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REFERENCES 551 McDaniels, T. L. (19
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REFERENCES 553 Nisbett, R. E., Fong
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REFERENCES 555 Polya, G. (1945). Ho
Page 1144: REFERENCES 557 Scheffler, I. (1965)
Page 1148: REFERENCES 559 Sieff, E. M., Dawes,
Page 1152: REFERENCES 561 Svenson, O. (1981).
Page 1156: REFERENCES 563 Ubel, P. A., Baron,
Page 1160: REFERENCES 565 Woodworth, R. S., &
Page 1166: 568 AUTHOR INDEX Bezembinder, T. G.
Page 1170: 570 AUTHOR INDEX Gabriel, S. E., 33
Page 1174: 572 AUTHOR INDEX Landes, W. M., 500
Page 1178: 574 AUTHOR INDEX Rachlin, H., 484 R
Page 1182: 576 AUTHOR INDEX Vevea, J. L., 453
Page 1186: 578 SUBJECT INDEX morality as self-
Page 1190: 580 SUBJECT INDEX fear, 453, 492, 5
Page 1196: SUBJECT INDEX 583 quantitative thin
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