Thinking and Deciding

More documents

Recommendations

Info

256 NORMATIVE THEORY OF CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAINTY 8. If X is the amount for person 1, then $50K − X is the amount for person 2. Total utility U = u(X)+u($50K −X). dU dX = .5·X −.5 −.5·($50K −X) −.5 =0,so.5·X −.5 = .5·($50K −X) −.5 , so (multiplying by 2 <strong>and</strong> squaring both sides), X = $50K − X, 2X = $50K, X = $25K. (If we graph these functions, the sum of the two curves should have a smooth peak in the middle.)
Page 2:
This page intentionally left blank
Page 8:
Thinking and Deciding Fourth Editio
Page 12:
Contents Preface to the fourth edit
Page 16:
CONTENTS vii Coincidences .........
Page 20:
CONTENTS ix Disappointment and elat
Page 24:
CONTENTS xi Rule utilitarianism . .
Page 28:
Preface to the fourth edition The f
Page 32:
Part I THINKING IN GENERAL
Page 40:
Chapter 1 What is thinking? Beginni
Page 44:
THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 7 Le
Page 48:
THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 9 Go
Page 52:
THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 11 I
Page 56:
THINKING ABOUT BELIEFS 13 Science d
Page 60:
HOW DO SEARCH PROCESSES WORK? 15 of
Page 64:
KNOWLEDGE, THINKING, AND UNDERSTAND
Page 68:
Page 72:
Page 76:
Page 80:
Page 84:
Page 88:
CONCLUSION 29 on the highest standa
Page 94:
32 THE STUDY OF THINKING Descriptiv
Page 98:
34 THE STUDY OF THINKING The second
Page 102:
36 THE STUDY OF THINKING 5. Maybe t
Page 106:
38 THE STUDY OF THINKING that you w
Page 110:
40 THE STUDY OF THINKING Tetlock fo
Page 114:
42 THE STUDY OF THINKING Training a
Page 118:
44 THE STUDY OF THINKING that appro
Page 122:
46 THE STUDY OF THINKING must use a
Page 126:
48 THE STUDY OF THINKING The purpos
Page 130:
50 THE STUDY OF THINKING Incentives
Page 134:
52 THE STUDY OF THINKING ably are n
Page 138:
54 THE STUDY OF THINKING Developmen
Page 142:
56 THE STUDY OF THINKING Table 2.1:
Page 146:
58 THE STUDY OF THINKING our goals
Page 152:
Chapter 3 Rationality In the case o
Page 156:
GOOD THINKING AND GOAL ACHIEVEMENT
Page 160:
GOOD THINKING AND GOAL ACHIEVEMENT
Page 164:
RATIONALITY AND EMOTION 67 of how t
Page 168:
RATIONALITY AND EMOTION 69 Because
Page 172:
RATIONALITY AND BELIEF 71 Self-dece
Page 176:
RATIONALITY AND BELIEF 73 From a no
Page 180:
CONCLUSION 75 propose do not help u
Page 186:
78 LOGIC answer. He reasons that al
Page 190:
80 LOGIC Again, this sounds good, b
Page 194:
82 LOGIC For each system of logic,
Page 198:
84 LOGIC S: If you know a person, i
Page 202:
86 LOGIC No A are B. All B are C. T
Page 206:
88 LOGIC answer is, “None of the
Page 210:
90 LOGIC before they were forced to
Page 214:
92 LOGIC The same subject did not c
Page 218:
94 LOGIC be made with such absolute
Page 222:
96 LOGIC Formal syllogisms illustra
Page 228:
Part II PROBABILITY AND BELIEF
Page 236:
Chapter 5 Normative theory of proba
Page 240:
NORMATIVE THEORY OF PROBABILITY 105
Page 244:
WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 107 theory. Th
Page 248:
WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 109 have it. L
Page 252:
WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 111 The person
Page 256:
WELL-JUSTIFIED PROBABILITY JUDGMENT
Page 260:
Page 264:
Page 268:
EVALUATING PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS 11
Page 272:
BAYES’S THEOREM 121 Certain scori
Page 276:
BAYES’S THEOREM 123 Formulas for
Page 280:
BAYES’S THEOREM 125 Figure 5.2: G
Page 284:
BAYES’S THEOREM 127 other, that i
Page 288:
BAYES’S THEOREM 129 males and fem
Page 292:
BAYES’S THEOREM 131 Although the
Page 296:
BAYES’S THEOREM 133 The difficult
Page 300:
CONCLUSION 135 2. p(aids) =.0001, p
Page 306:
138 DESCRIPTIVE THEORY OF PROBABILI
Page 310:
Page 314:
Page 318:
Page 322:
Page 326:
Page 330:
Page 334:
Page 338:
Page 342:
Page 346:
Page 350:
Page 354:
162 HYPOTHESIS TESTING willing to m
Page 358:
164 HYPOTHESIS TESTING not found, s
Page 362:
166 HYPOTHESIS TESTING they are nev
Page 366:
168 HYPOTHESIS TESTING given any ot
Page 370:
170 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Bruner and h
Page 374:
172 HYPOTHESIS TESTING hypothesis.
Page 378:
174 HYPOTHESIS TESTING You open the
Page 382:
176 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Both of thes
Page 386:
178 HYPOTHESIS TESTING would certai
Page 390:
180 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Table 7.2: Z
Page 394:
182 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Table 7.5: T
Page 398:
184 JUDGMENT OF CORRELATION AND CON
Page 402:
Page 406:
Page 410:
Page 414:
Page 418:
Page 422:
Page 426:
Page 430:
200 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING t
Page 434:
202 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING 5
Page 438:
204 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING D
Page 442:
206 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING b
Page 446:
208 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING I
Page 450:
210 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING s
Page 454:
212 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING t
Page 458:
214 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING o
Page 462:
216 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING T
Page 466:
218 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING (
Page 470:
Page 474:
Page 478:
224 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING s
Page 482:
226 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING B
Page 488:
Part III DECISIONS AND PLANS
Page 496: Chapter 10 Normative theory of choi
Page 500: NORMATIVE THEORY OF CHOICE 235 We s
Page 504: EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 237 that pr
Page 508: EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 239 Table 1
Page 512: EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 241 are sti
Page 516: WHY EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY IS NORM
Page 532: THE UTILITY OF MONEY 251 we evaluat
Page 536: THE UTILITY OF MONEY 253 Figure 10.
Page 540: CONCLUSION 255 7. On the basis of y
Page 546: 258 DESCRIPTIVE THEORY OF CHOICE UN
Page 594:
282 DESCRIPTIVE THEORY OF CHOICE UN
Page 598:
Page 602:
Page 608:
Chapter 12 Choice under certainty T
Page 612:
PROMINENCE AND NONCOMPENSATORY STRA
Page 616:
OTHER REVERSALS: COMPATIBILITY AND
Page 620:
EFFECTS OF THE OPTIONS AVAILABLE ON
Page 624:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 297 think about t
Page 628:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 299 jects may be
Page 632:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 301 When we evalu
Page 636:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 303 a promotion f
Page 640:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 305 The extra-cos
Page 644:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 307 Mr. Munn and
Page 648:
CONCLUSION 309 Most of these heuris
Page 654:
312 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Most of the
Page 658:
314 UTILITY MEASUREMENT dollar. Hig
Page 662:
316 UTILITY MEASUREMENT My answer i
Page 666:
318 UTILITY MEASUREMENT we can mean
Page 670:
320 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Simple dire
Page 674:
322 UTILITY MEASUREMENT I could con
Page 678:
324 UTILITY MEASUREMENT be useful f
Page 682:
326 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Of course t
Page 686:
328 UTILITY MEASUREMENT is equivale
Page 690:
330 UTILITY MEASUREMENT their healt
Page 694:
332 UTILITY MEASUREMENT money as 0
Page 698:
334 UTILITY MEASUREMENT really deci
Page 702:
336 UTILITY MEASUREMENT pay about t
Page 706:
338 UTILITY MEASUREMENT from SGs. I
Page 710:
340 UTILITY MEASUREMENT at maximizi
Page 714:
342 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES ot
Page 718:
344 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ke
Page 722:
346 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES of
Page 726:
348 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES de
Page 730:
350 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ta
Page 734:
352 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES It
Page 738:
354 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ta
Page 742:
356 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES si
Page 746:
358 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Th
Page 750:
360 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES of
Page 756:
Chapter 15 Quantitative judgment Qu
Page 760:
THE LENS MODEL 365 Table 15.1: Data
Page 764:
THE LENS MODEL 367 In addition to t
Page 768:
THE LENS MODEL 369 (von Winterfeldt
Page 772:
THE LENS MODEL 371 because it belie
Page 776:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 373 proba
Page 780:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 375 The t
Page 784:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 377 pende
Page 788:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 379 1963.
Page 792:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 381 Elimi
Page 796:
CLASSIFICATION 383 more eggs. ‘Ho
Page 800:
FUNCTIONAL MEASUREMENT AND CONJOINT
Page 804:
CONCLUSION 387 quality. The numbers
Page 810:
390 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE We th
Page 814:
392 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Relat
Page 818:
394 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE appea
Page 822:
396 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Moral
Page 826:
398 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE conse
Page 830:
400 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE must
Page 834:
402 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Suppo
Page 838:
404 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE is na
Page 842:
406 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE freed
Page 846:
408 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE again
Page 850:
410 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE optio
Page 854:
412 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Natur
Page 858:
414 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE If th
Page 862:
416 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE error
Page 866:
418 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE the idea o
Page 870:
420 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE subject ha
Page 874:
422 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE to maximiz
Page 878:
424 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE people for
Page 882:
426 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE We can thu
Page 886:
428 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE subjects a
Page 890:
430 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE great deal
Page 894:
432 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE but not ex
Page 898:
434 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE that the c
Page 902:
436 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE being, any
Page 906:
438 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE to take ou
Page 910:
440 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE Conclusion
Page 914:
442 SOCIAL DILEMMAS: COOPERATION VE
Page 918:
Page 922:
Page 926:
Page 930:
Page 934:
Page 938:
Page 942:
Page 946:
Page 950:
Page 954:
Page 958:
Page 962:
Page 966:
Page 972:
Chapter 19 Decisions about the futu
Page 976:
THE CHOICE OF PERSONAL GOALS 473 Mo
Page 980:
GOOD REASONS FOR STICKING TO PLANS
Page 984:
BAD REASONS FOR STICKING TO PLANS:
Page 988:
DISCOUNTING 479 Figure 19.1: Subjec
Page 992:
DISCOUNTING 481 noted. If you have
Page 996:
DISCOUNTING 483 The high subjective
Page 1000:
DISCOUNTING 485 in nine months, or
Page 1004:
DISCOUNTING 487 bly, in order to ge
Page 1008:
SELF-CONTROL 489 Why we need self-c
Page 1012:
SELF-CONTROL 491 offered the fourth
Page 1016:
ADAPTATION, CONTRAST, AND HEURISTIC
Page 1020:
MORALITY AND PRUDENCE 495 Morality
Page 1024:
Chapter 20 Risk Decisions under unc
Page 1028:
NORMATIVE THEORY 499 each individua
Page 1032:
NORMATIVE THEORY 501 example, to re
Page 1036:
RISK REGULATION AND THE INTUITIONS
Page 1040:
RISK REGULATION AND THE INTUITIONS
Page 1044:
OTHER BIASES IN RISK JUDGMENTS 507
Page 1048:
Page 1052:
Page 1056:
Page 1060:
Page 1064:
INSURANCE AND PROTECTIVE BEHAVIOR 5
Page 1068:
INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS 519 abi
Page 1072:
INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS 521 Con
Page 1076:
INDIVIDUAL AND SEX DIFFERENCES 523
Page 1080:
CONCLUSION 525 ficials thought that
Page 1086:
528 REFERENCES Alpert, W., & Raiffa
Page 1090:
530 REFERENCES Baron, J. (1997b). C
Page 1094:
532 REFERENCES Behn, R. D., & Vaupe
Page 1098:
534 REFERENCES Social Psychology, 6
Page 1102:
536 REFERENCES Davis, W. A. (1981).
Page 1106:
538 REFERENCES Elster, J. (1983). S
Page 1110:
540 REFERENCES for osteoporosis: Wh
Page 1114:
542 REFERENCES Harris, R. J., & Joy
Page 1118:
544 REFERENCES Oregon did. Journal
Page 1122:
546 REFERENCES Kahneman, D., & Tver
Page 1126:
548 REFERENCES Kuhn, D., Phelps, E.
Page 1130:
550 REFERENCES Lopes, L. L. (1987a)
Page 1134:
552 REFERENCES Mischel, W., Shoda,
Page 1138:
554 REFERENCES Parks, C. D., & Vu,
Page 1142:
556 REFERENCES Reuben, D. B. (1984)
Page 1146:
558 REFERENCES Schwartz, S. M., Bar
Page 1150:
560 REFERENCES Solnick, J. V., Kann
Page 1154:
562 REFERENCES 51, 176-197. Toulmin
Page 1158:
564 REFERENCES Walster, E., Walster
Page 1164:
Author Index Abelson, R. P., 148 Ab
Page 1168:
AUTHOR INDEX 569 Dawes, R. M., 156,
Page 1172:
AUTHOR INDEX 571 Huber, P. W., 519
Page 1176:
AUTHOR INDEX 573 Miyamoto, J. M., 3
Page 1180:
AUTHOR INDEX 575 Simon, H. A., 37,
Page 1184:
Subject Index 2 4 6 problem, 172 ab
Page 1188:
SUBJECT INDEX 579 culture, 428, 451
Page 1192:
SUBJECT INDEX 581 invariance, 116,
Page 1196:
SUBJECT INDEX 583 quantitative thin
show all

Thinking and Deciding

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?