Thinking and Deciding

More documents

Recommendations

Info

416 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE errors need not imply acceptance or rejection of any particular moral code. All moral codes recognize the relevance of the effect of our choices on others. People who support some codes may feel that morality is not limited to such effects, but they can hardly object to more systematic instruction in thinking about them.
Page 2:
This page intentionally left blank
Page 8:
Thinking and Deciding Fourth Editio
Page 12:
Contents Preface to the fourth edit
Page 16:
CONTENTS vii Coincidences .........
Page 20:
CONTENTS ix Disappointment and elat
Page 24:
CONTENTS xi Rule utilitarianism . .
Page 28:
Preface to the fourth edition The f
Page 32:
Part I THINKING IN GENERAL
Page 40:
Chapter 1 What is thinking? Beginni
Page 44:
THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 7 Le
Page 48:
THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 9 Go
Page 52:
THE SEARCH-INFERENCE FRAMEWORK 11 I
Page 56:
THINKING ABOUT BELIEFS 13 Science d
Page 60:
HOW DO SEARCH PROCESSES WORK? 15 of
Page 64:
KNOWLEDGE, THINKING, AND UNDERSTAND
Page 68:
Page 72:
Page 76:
Page 80:
Page 84:
Page 88:
CONCLUSION 29 on the highest standa
Page 94:
32 THE STUDY OF THINKING Descriptiv
Page 98:
34 THE STUDY OF THINKING The second
Page 102:
36 THE STUDY OF THINKING 5. Maybe t
Page 106:
38 THE STUDY OF THINKING that you w
Page 110:
40 THE STUDY OF THINKING Tetlock fo
Page 114:
42 THE STUDY OF THINKING Training a
Page 118:
44 THE STUDY OF THINKING that appro
Page 122:
46 THE STUDY OF THINKING must use a
Page 126:
48 THE STUDY OF THINKING The purpos
Page 130:
50 THE STUDY OF THINKING Incentives
Page 134:
52 THE STUDY OF THINKING ably are n
Page 138:
54 THE STUDY OF THINKING Developmen
Page 142:
56 THE STUDY OF THINKING Table 2.1:
Page 146:
58 THE STUDY OF THINKING our goals
Page 152:
Chapter 3 Rationality In the case o
Page 156:
GOOD THINKING AND GOAL ACHIEVEMENT
Page 160:
GOOD THINKING AND GOAL ACHIEVEMENT
Page 164:
RATIONALITY AND EMOTION 67 of how t
Page 168:
RATIONALITY AND EMOTION 69 Because
Page 172:
RATIONALITY AND BELIEF 71 Self-dece
Page 176:
RATIONALITY AND BELIEF 73 From a no
Page 180:
CONCLUSION 75 propose do not help u
Page 186:
78 LOGIC answer. He reasons that al
Page 190:
80 LOGIC Again, this sounds good, b
Page 194:
82 LOGIC For each system of logic,
Page 198:
84 LOGIC S: If you know a person, i
Page 202:
86 LOGIC No A are B. All B are C. T
Page 206:
88 LOGIC answer is, “None of the
Page 210:
90 LOGIC before they were forced to
Page 214:
92 LOGIC The same subject did not c
Page 218:
94 LOGIC be made with such absolute
Page 222:
96 LOGIC Formal syllogisms illustra
Page 228:
Part II PROBABILITY AND BELIEF
Page 236:
Chapter 5 Normative theory of proba
Page 240:
NORMATIVE THEORY OF PROBABILITY 105
Page 244:
WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 107 theory. Th
Page 248:
WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 109 have it. L
Page 252:
WHAT IS PROBABILITY? 111 The person
Page 256:
WELL-JUSTIFIED PROBABILITY JUDGMENT
Page 260:
Page 264:
Page 268:
EVALUATING PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS 11
Page 272:
BAYES’S THEOREM 121 Certain scori
Page 276:
BAYES’S THEOREM 123 Formulas for
Page 280:
BAYES’S THEOREM 125 Figure 5.2: G
Page 284:
BAYES’S THEOREM 127 other, that i
Page 288:
BAYES’S THEOREM 129 males and fem
Page 292:
BAYES’S THEOREM 131 Although the
Page 296:
BAYES’S THEOREM 133 The difficult
Page 300:
CONCLUSION 135 2. p(aids) =.0001, p
Page 306:
138 DESCRIPTIVE THEORY OF PROBABILI
Page 310:
Page 314:
Page 318:
Page 322:
Page 326:
Page 330:
Page 334:
Page 338:
Page 342:
Page 346:
Page 350:
Page 354:
162 HYPOTHESIS TESTING willing to m
Page 358:
164 HYPOTHESIS TESTING not found, s
Page 362:
166 HYPOTHESIS TESTING they are nev
Page 366:
168 HYPOTHESIS TESTING given any ot
Page 370:
170 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Bruner and h
Page 374:
172 HYPOTHESIS TESTING hypothesis.
Page 378:
174 HYPOTHESIS TESTING You open the
Page 382:
176 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Both of thes
Page 386:
178 HYPOTHESIS TESTING would certai
Page 390:
180 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Table 7.2: Z
Page 394:
182 HYPOTHESIS TESTING Table 7.5: T
Page 398:
184 JUDGMENT OF CORRELATION AND CON
Page 402:
Page 406:
Page 410:
Page 414:
Page 418:
Page 422:
Page 426:
Page 430:
200 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING t
Page 434:
202 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING 5
Page 438:
204 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING D
Page 442:
206 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING b
Page 446:
208 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING I
Page 450:
210 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING s
Page 454:
212 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING t
Page 458:
214 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING o
Page 462:
216 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING T
Page 466:
218 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING (
Page 470:
Page 474:
Page 478:
224 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING s
Page 482:
226 ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED THINKING B
Page 488:
Part III DECISIONS AND PLANS
Page 496:
Chapter 10 Normative theory of choi
Page 500:
NORMATIVE THEORY OF CHOICE 235 We s
Page 504:
EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 237 that pr
Page 508:
EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 239 Table 1
Page 512:
EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY 241 are sti
Page 516:
WHY EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY IS NORM
Page 520:
Page 524:
Page 528:
Page 532:
THE UTILITY OF MONEY 251 we evaluat
Page 536:
THE UTILITY OF MONEY 253 Figure 10.
Page 540:
CONCLUSION 255 7. On the basis of y
Page 544:
Chapter 11 Descriptive theory of ch
Page 548:
BIAS IN DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Page 552:
BIAS IN DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Page 556:
PROSPECT THEORY 263 Probability: Th
Page 560:
PROSPECT THEORY 265 asserts that on
Page 564:
PROSPECT THEORY 267 A similar “th
Page 568:
PROSPECT THEORY 269 care proportion
Page 572:
PROSPECT THEORY 271 if X ≥ 0 and
Page 576:
RANK-DEPENDENT UTILITY THEORIES 273
Page 580:
EMOTIONAL EFFECTS OF OUTCOMES 275 E
Page 584:
EMOTIONAL EFFECTS OF OUTCOMES 277 T
Page 588:
EMOTIONAL EFFECTS OF OUTCOMES 279 a
Page 592:
THE AMBIGUITY EFFECT 281 Table 11.7
Page 596:
THE AMBIGUITY EFFECT 283 not the wo
Page 600:
UNCERTAINTY AND REASONS FOR CHOICE
Page 604:
CONCLUSION 287 imperfect correlatio
Page 610:
290 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY if his c
Page 614:
292 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY their be
Page 618:
294 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY means. T
Page 622:
296 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY for eval
Page 626:
298 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY for the
Page 630:
300 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY Behavior
Page 634:
302 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY At other
Page 638:
304 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY We sell
Page 642:
306 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY either t
Page 646:
308 CHOICE UNDER CERTAINTY You are
Page 652:
Chapter 13 Utility measurement The
Page 656:
DECISION ANALYSIS AND RELATED METHO
Page 660:
DECISION ANALYSIS AND RELATED METHO
Page 664:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 317 Many
Page 668:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 319 Util
Page 672:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 321 You
Page 676:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 323 One
Page 680:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 325 Figu
Page 684:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 327 Time
Page 688:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 329 resp
Page 692:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 331 When
Page 696:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 333 betw
Page 700:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 335 The
Page 704:
THE MEASUREMENT OF UTILITY 337 bene
Page 708:
CONCLUSION 339 win the $100, if all
Page 712:
Chapter 14 Decision analysis and va
Page 716:
DISCOVERING VALUES 343 why people c
Page 720:
DISCOVERING VALUES 345 Part 1E2. Gr
Page 724:
CONJOINT MEASUREMENT 347 Figure 14.
Page 728:
MAUT AS A TYPE OF DECISION ANALYSIS
Page 732:
Page 736:
Page 740:
Page 744:
RULES AND TRADEOFFS 357 People who
Page 748:
THE VALUE OF HUMAN LIFE 359 to ask
Page 752:
CONCLUSION 361 curriculum deals wit
Page 758:
364 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT procedure
Page 762:
366 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT Table 15.
Page 766:
368 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT judgments
Page 770:
370 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT mission,
Page 774:
372 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT formula.
Page 778:
374 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT 3. y = .6
Page 782:
376 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT far, the
Page 786:
378 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT Kahneman
Page 790:
380 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT Anchoring
Page 794:
382 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT search yo
Page 798:
384 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT Table 15.
Page 802:
386 QUANTITATIVE JUDGMENT each leve
Page 808:
Chapter 16 Moral judgment and choic
Page 812: WHAT ARE MORAL JUDGMENTS? 391 From
Page 816: TYPES OF JUDGMENT 393 of opposing a
Page 820: TYPES OF JUDGMENT 395 if people tri
Page 824: UTILITARIANISM AS A NORMATIVE MODEL
Page 844: BIASES IN MORAL JUDGMENT? 407 effec
Page 848: BIASES IN MORAL JUDGMENT? 409 Other
Page 852: BIASES IN MORAL JUDGMENT? 411 in or
Page 856: BIASES IN MORAL JUDGMENT? 413 Secon
Page 860: CONCLUSION 415 Conclusion Any nonut
Page 866: 418 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE the idea o
Page 870: 420 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE subject ha
Page 874: 422 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE to maximiz
Page 878: 424 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE people for
Page 882: 426 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE We can thu
Page 886: 428 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE subjects a
Page 890: 430 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE great deal
Page 894: 432 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE but not ex
Page 898: 434 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE that the c
Page 902: 436 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE being, any
Page 906: 438 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE to take ou
Page 910: 440 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE Conclusion
Page 914:
442 SOCIAL DILEMMAS: COOPERATION VE
Page 918:
Page 922:
Page 926:
Page 930:
Page 934:
Page 938:
Page 942:
Page 946:
Page 950:
Page 954:
Page 958:
Page 962:
Page 966:
Page 972:
Chapter 19 Decisions about the futu
Page 976:
THE CHOICE OF PERSONAL GOALS 473 Mo
Page 980:
GOOD REASONS FOR STICKING TO PLANS
Page 984:
BAD REASONS FOR STICKING TO PLANS:
Page 988:
DISCOUNTING 479 Figure 19.1: Subjec
Page 992:
DISCOUNTING 481 noted. If you have
Page 996:
DISCOUNTING 483 The high subjective
Page 1000:
DISCOUNTING 485 in nine months, or
Page 1004:
DISCOUNTING 487 bly, in order to ge
Page 1008:
SELF-CONTROL 489 Why we need self-c
Page 1012:
SELF-CONTROL 491 offered the fourth
Page 1016:
ADAPTATION, CONTRAST, AND HEURISTIC
Page 1020:
MORALITY AND PRUDENCE 495 Morality
Page 1024:
Chapter 20 Risk Decisions under unc
Page 1028:
NORMATIVE THEORY 499 each individua
Page 1032:
NORMATIVE THEORY 501 example, to re
Page 1036:
RISK REGULATION AND THE INTUITIONS
Page 1040:
RISK REGULATION AND THE INTUITIONS
Page 1044:
OTHER BIASES IN RISK JUDGMENTS 507
Page 1048:
Page 1052:
Page 1056:
Page 1060:
Page 1064:
INSURANCE AND PROTECTIVE BEHAVIOR 5
Page 1068:
INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS 519 abi
Page 1072:
INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS 521 Con
Page 1076:
INDIVIDUAL AND SEX DIFFERENCES 523
Page 1080:
CONCLUSION 525 ficials thought that
Page 1086:
528 REFERENCES Alpert, W., & Raiffa
Page 1090:
530 REFERENCES Baron, J. (1997b). C
Page 1094:
532 REFERENCES Behn, R. D., & Vaupe
Page 1098:
534 REFERENCES Social Psychology, 6
Page 1102:
536 REFERENCES Davis, W. A. (1981).
Page 1106:
538 REFERENCES Elster, J. (1983). S
Page 1110:
540 REFERENCES for osteoporosis: Wh
Page 1114:
542 REFERENCES Harris, R. J., & Joy
Page 1118:
544 REFERENCES Oregon did. Journal
Page 1122:
546 REFERENCES Kahneman, D., & Tver
Page 1126:
548 REFERENCES Kuhn, D., Phelps, E.
Page 1130:
550 REFERENCES Lopes, L. L. (1987a)
Page 1134:
552 REFERENCES Mischel, W., Shoda,
Page 1138:
554 REFERENCES Parks, C. D., & Vu,
Page 1142:
556 REFERENCES Reuben, D. B. (1984)
Page 1146:
558 REFERENCES Schwartz, S. M., Bar
Page 1150:
560 REFERENCES Solnick, J. V., Kann
Page 1154:
562 REFERENCES 51, 176-197. Toulmin
Page 1158:
564 REFERENCES Walster, E., Walster
Page 1164:
Author Index Abelson, R. P., 148 Ab
Page 1168:
AUTHOR INDEX 569 Dawes, R. M., 156,
Page 1172:
AUTHOR INDEX 571 Huber, P. W., 519
Page 1176:
AUTHOR INDEX 573 Miyamoto, J. M., 3
Page 1180:
AUTHOR INDEX 575 Simon, H. A., 37,
Page 1184:
Subject Index 2 4 6 problem, 172 ab
Page 1188:
SUBJECT INDEX 579 culture, 428, 451
Page 1192:
SUBJECT INDEX 581 invariance, 116,
Page 1196:
SUBJECT INDEX 583 quantitative thin
show all

Thinking and Deciding

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?