Thinking and Deciding

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CONTENTS vii Coincidences ............................. 130 TheMontyHallproblem ....................... 131 Use of Bayes’s theorem in expert systems .............. 132 Conclusion . . . .............................. 134 6 Descriptive theory of probability judgment 137 Accuracy of probability judgments . .................... 137 Frequency judgments ......................... 137 Calibration and inappropriate extreme confidence .......... 139 Improving calibration by conditional assessment . .......... 144 Heuristics and biases in probability . .................... 146 The representativeness heuristic ................... 146 The availability heuristic . . . .................... 153 Subadditivity ............................. 156 Hindsightbias............................. 157 Averaging............................... 158 Conclusion . . . .............................. 159 7 Hypothesis testing 161 Hypotheses in science . . . ......................... 162 Anexamplefrommedicine...................... 162 Testing scientific hypotheses . .................... 165 The psychology of hypothesis testing .................... 168 Concept formation . ......................... 169 Congruence bias . . . ......................... 171 Information bias and the value of information . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Utility and alternative hypotheses ................... 181 Conclusion . . . .............................. 182 8 Judgment of correlation and contingency 183 Correlation, cause, and contingency .................... 183 Accuracy of judgment . . . ......................... 186 Attentional bias . .............................. 186 Attentional bias in judging correlation . ............... 186 Attentional bias in judging contingency ............... 189 Effect of goals on illusion of control . . ............... 191 Effectsofpriorbelief ............................ 192 Illusorycorrelation .......................... 193 Personality traits . . ......................... 193 Prior belief and attentional bias .................... 195 Understanding theory and evidence . . . ............... 196 Conclusion . . . .............................. 198
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Page 8: Thinking and Deciding Fourth Editio
Page 12: Contents Preface to the fourth edit
Page 18: viii CONTENTS 9 Actively open-minde
Page 22: x CONTENTS Other methods involving
Page 26: xii CONTENTS Why we need self-contr
Page 30: xiv PREFACE TO THE FOURTH EDITION u
Page 36: Part I is about the basics, the fun
Page 42: 6 WHAT IS THINKING? Types of thinki
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18 WHAT IS THINKING? new concepts.
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20 WHAT IS THINKING? not move. (Why
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22 WHAT IS THINKING? We might be te
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24 WHAT IS THINKING? In contrast to
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26 WHAT IS THINKING? mainly in the
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28 WHAT IS THINKING? parallelogram,
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Chapter 2 The study of thinking Des
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DESCRIPTIVE, NORMATIVE, AND PRESCRI
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METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 35 o
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METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 37 1
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METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 39 h
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METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 41 I
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METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 43 a
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METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 45 P
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METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 47 d
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METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 49 t
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DEVELOPMENT OF NORMATIVE MODELS 51
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DESCRIPTIVE MODELS AND HEURISTICS 5
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CLASSIFICATION OF BIASES 55 table,
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CLASSIFICATION OF BIASES 57 BIAS NO
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CONCLUSION 59 the power of science.
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62 RATIONALITY neglect some of them
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64 RATIONALITY terms of their value
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66 RATIONALITY A more serious objec
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68 RATIONALITY emotions, then, are
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70 RATIONALITY “irrational.” On
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72 RATIONALITY ignoring evidence ag
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74 RATIONALITY Are people ever real
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Chapter 4 Logic Nothing is better t
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WHAT IS LOGIC? 79 validity of syllo
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TYPES OF LOGIC 81 The system of cat
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DIFFICULTIES IN LOGICAL REASONING 8
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MENTAL MODELS 85 that our conclusio
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MENTAL MODELS 87 Some B are A. All
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LOGICAL ERRORS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTIN
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LOGICAL ERRORS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTIN
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EXTENSIONS OF LOGIC 93 with the act
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EXTENSIONS OF LOGIC 95 Table 4.1: S
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CONCLUSION 97 possibilities can be
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Practically all thinking involves b
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104 NORMATIVE THEORY OF PROBABILITY
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Chapter 6 Descriptive theory of pro
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ACCURACY OF PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS 1
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HEURISTICS AND BIASES IN PROBABILIT
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CONCLUSION 159 says the car is in b
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Chapter 7 Hypothesis testing Data!
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HYPOTHESES IN SCIENCE 163 to admini
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HYPOTHESES IN SCIENCE 165 disease,
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HYPOTHESES IN SCIENCE 167 how the p
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THE PSYCHOLOGY OF HYPOTHESIS TESTIN
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Chapter 8 Judgment of correlation a
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CORRELATION, CAUSE, AND CONTINGENCY
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ATTENTIONAL BIAS 187 Table 8.2: Inc
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ATTENTIONAL BIAS 189 observations i
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ATTENTIONAL BIAS 191 .9 − .7 cond
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EFFECTS OF PRIOR BELIEF 193 know th
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EFFECTS OF PRIOR BELIEF 195 lated s
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EFFECTS OF PRIOR BELIEF 197 evidenc
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Chapter 9 Actively open-minded thin
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EXAMPLES OF ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED TH
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MYSIDE BIAS AND IRRATIONAL BELIEF P
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EFFECT OF ACTIVE OPEN-MINDEDNESS ON
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DETERMINANTS AND RELATED PHENOMENA
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FACTORS THAT MODERATE BELIEF PERSIS
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CONCLUSION 227 Are the biases discu
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Part II was concerned with thinking
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234 NORMATIVE THEORY OF CHOICE UNDE
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258 DESCRIPTIVE THEORY OF CHOICE UN
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Chapter 12 Choice under certainty T
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PROMINENCE AND NONCOMPENSATORY STRA
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OTHER REVERSALS: COMPATIBILITY AND
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EFFECTS OF THE OPTIONS AVAILABLE ON
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MENTAL ACCOUNTING 297 think about t
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MENTAL ACCOUNTING 299 jects may be
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MENTAL ACCOUNTING 301 When we evalu
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MENTAL ACCOUNTING 303 a promotion f
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MENTAL ACCOUNTING 305 The extra-cos
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MENTAL ACCOUNTING 307 Mr. Munn and
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CONCLUSION 309 Most of these heuris
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312 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Most of the
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314 UTILITY MEASUREMENT dollar. Hig
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316 UTILITY MEASUREMENT My answer i
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318 UTILITY MEASUREMENT we can mean
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320 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Simple dire
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322 UTILITY MEASUREMENT I could con
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324 UTILITY MEASUREMENT be useful f
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326 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Of course t
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328 UTILITY MEASUREMENT is equivale
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330 UTILITY MEASUREMENT their healt
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332 UTILITY MEASUREMENT money as 0
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334 UTILITY MEASUREMENT really deci
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336 UTILITY MEASUREMENT pay about t
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338 UTILITY MEASUREMENT from SGs. I
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340 UTILITY MEASUREMENT at maximizi
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342 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES ot
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344 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ke
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346 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES of
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348 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES de
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350 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ta
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352 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES It
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354 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ta
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356 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES si
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358 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Th
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360 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES of
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Chapter 15 Quantitative judgment Qu
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THE LENS MODEL 365 Table 15.1: Data
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THE LENS MODEL 367 In addition to t
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THE LENS MODEL 369 (von Winterfeldt
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THE LENS MODEL 371 because it belie
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THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 373 proba
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THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 375 The t
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THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 377 pende
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THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 379 1963.
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THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 381 Elimi
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CLASSIFICATION 383 more eggs. ‘Ho
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FUNCTIONAL MEASUREMENT AND CONJOINT
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CONCLUSION 387 quality. The numbers
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390 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE We th
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392 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Relat
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394 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE appea
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396 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Moral
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398 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE conse
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400 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE must
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402 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Suppo
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404 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE is na
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406 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE freed
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408 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE again
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410 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE optio
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412 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Natur
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414 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE If th
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416 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE error
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418 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE the idea o
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420 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE subject ha
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422 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE to maximiz
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424 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE people for
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426 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE We can thu
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428 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE subjects a
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430 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE great deal
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432 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE but not ex
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434 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE that the c
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436 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE being, any
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438 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE to take ou
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440 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE Conclusion
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442 SOCIAL DILEMMAS: COOPERATION VE
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Chapter 19 Decisions about the futu
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THE CHOICE OF PERSONAL GOALS 473 Mo
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GOOD REASONS FOR STICKING TO PLANS
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BAD REASONS FOR STICKING TO PLANS:
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DISCOUNTING 479 Figure 19.1: Subjec
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DISCOUNTING 481 noted. If you have
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DISCOUNTING 483 The high subjective
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DISCOUNTING 485 in nine months, or
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DISCOUNTING 487 bly, in order to ge
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SELF-CONTROL 489 Why we need self-c
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SELF-CONTROL 491 offered the fourth
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ADAPTATION, CONTRAST, AND HEURISTIC
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MORALITY AND PRUDENCE 495 Morality
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Chapter 20 Risk Decisions under unc
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NORMATIVE THEORY 499 each individua
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NORMATIVE THEORY 501 example, to re
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RISK REGULATION AND THE INTUITIONS
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RISK REGULATION AND THE INTUITIONS
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OTHER BIASES IN RISK JUDGMENTS 507
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INSURANCE AND PROTECTIVE BEHAVIOR 5
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INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS 519 abi
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INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS 521 Con
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INDIVIDUAL AND SEX DIFFERENCES 523
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CONCLUSION 525 ficials thought that
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528 REFERENCES Alpert, W., & Raiffa
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530 REFERENCES Baron, J. (1997b). C
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532 REFERENCES Behn, R. D., & Vaupe
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534 REFERENCES Social Psychology, 6
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536 REFERENCES Davis, W. A. (1981).
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538 REFERENCES Elster, J. (1983). S
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540 REFERENCES for osteoporosis: Wh
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542 REFERENCES Harris, R. J., & Joy
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544 REFERENCES Oregon did. Journal
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546 REFERENCES Kahneman, D., & Tver
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548 REFERENCES Kuhn, D., Phelps, E.
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550 REFERENCES Lopes, L. L. (1987a)
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552 REFERENCES Mischel, W., Shoda,
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554 REFERENCES Parks, C. D., & Vu,
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556 REFERENCES Reuben, D. B. (1984)
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558 REFERENCES Schwartz, S. M., Bar
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560 REFERENCES Solnick, J. V., Kann
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562 REFERENCES 51, 176-197. Toulmin
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564 REFERENCES Walster, E., Walster
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Author Index Abelson, R. P., 148 Ab
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AUTHOR INDEX 569 Dawes, R. M., 156,
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AUTHOR INDEX 571 Huber, P. W., 519
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AUTHOR INDEX 573 Miyamoto, J. M., 3
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AUTHOR INDEX 575 Simon, H. A., 37,
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Subject Index 2 4 6 problem, 172 ab
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SUBJECT INDEX 579 culture, 428, 451
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SUBJECT INDEX 581 invariance, 116,
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SUBJECT INDEX 583 quantitative thin
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