Thinking and Deciding

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Thinking and Deciding Fourth Edition Jonathan Baron University of Pennsylvania
Page 2: This page intentionally left blank
Page 10: CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridg
Page 14: vi CONTENTS Objections to rationali
Page 18: viii CONTENTS 9 Actively open-minde
Page 22: x CONTENTS Other methods involving
Page 26: xii CONTENTS Why we need self-contr
Page 30: xiv PREFACE TO THE FOURTH EDITION u
Page 36: Part I is about the basics, the fun
Page 42: 6 WHAT IS THINKING? Types of thinki
Page 46: 8 WHAT IS THINKING? Evidence consis
Page 50: 10 WHAT IS THINKING? of a piece of
Page 54: 12 WHAT IS THINKING? plans may exte
Page 58:
14 WHAT IS THINKING? our behavior a
Page 62:
16 WHAT IS THINKING? Recall or exte
Page 66:
18 WHAT IS THINKING? new concepts.
Page 70:
20 WHAT IS THINKING? not move. (Why
Page 74:
22 WHAT IS THINKING? We might be te
Page 78:
24 WHAT IS THINKING? In contrast to
Page 82:
26 WHAT IS THINKING? mainly in the
Page 86:
28 WHAT IS THINKING? parallelogram,
Page 92:
Chapter 2 The study of thinking Des
Page 96:
DESCRIPTIVE, NORMATIVE, AND PRESCRI
Page 100:
METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 35 o
Page 104:
METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 37 1
Page 108:
METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 39 h
Page 112:
METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 41 I
Page 116:
METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 43 a
Page 120:
METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 45 P
Page 124:
METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 47 d
Page 128:
METHODS FOR EMPIRICAL RESEARCH 49 t
Page 132:
DEVELOPMENT OF NORMATIVE MODELS 51
Page 136:
DESCRIPTIVE MODELS AND HEURISTICS 5
Page 140:
CLASSIFICATION OF BIASES 55 table,
Page 144:
CLASSIFICATION OF BIASES 57 BIAS NO
Page 148:
CONCLUSION 59 the power of science.
Page 154:
62 RATIONALITY neglect some of them
Page 158:
64 RATIONALITY terms of their value
Page 162:
66 RATIONALITY A more serious objec
Page 166:
68 RATIONALITY emotions, then, are
Page 170:
70 RATIONALITY “irrational.” On
Page 174:
72 RATIONALITY ignoring evidence ag
Page 178:
74 RATIONALITY Are people ever real
Page 184:
Chapter 4 Logic Nothing is better t
Page 188:
WHAT IS LOGIC? 79 validity of syllo
Page 192:
TYPES OF LOGIC 81 The system of cat
Page 196:
DIFFICULTIES IN LOGICAL REASONING 8
Page 200:
MENTAL MODELS 85 that our conclusio
Page 204:
MENTAL MODELS 87 Some B are A. All
Page 208:
LOGICAL ERRORS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTIN
Page 212:
LOGICAL ERRORS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTIN
Page 216:
EXTENSIONS OF LOGIC 93 with the act
Page 220:
EXTENSIONS OF LOGIC 95 Table 4.1: S
Page 224:
CONCLUSION 97 possibilities can be
Page 232:
Practically all thinking involves b
Page 238:
104 NORMATIVE THEORY OF PROBABILITY
Page 242:
Page 246:
Page 250:
Page 254:
Page 258:
Page 262:
Page 266:
Page 270:
Page 274:
Page 278:
Page 282:
Page 286:
Page 290:
Page 294:
Page 298:
Page 304:
Chapter 6 Descriptive theory of pro
Page 308:
ACCURACY OF PROBABILITY JUDGMENTS 1
Page 312:
Page 316:
Page 320:
Page 324:
HEURISTICS AND BIASES IN PROBABILIT
Page 328:
Page 332:
Page 336:
Page 340:
Page 344:
Page 348:
CONCLUSION 159 says the car is in b
Page 352:
Chapter 7 Hypothesis testing Data!
Page 356:
HYPOTHESES IN SCIENCE 163 to admini
Page 360:
HYPOTHESES IN SCIENCE 165 disease,
Page 364:
HYPOTHESES IN SCIENCE 167 how the p
Page 368:
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF HYPOTHESIS TESTIN
Page 372:
Page 376:
Page 380:
Page 384:
Page 388:
Page 392:
Page 396:
Chapter 8 Judgment of correlation a
Page 400:
CORRELATION, CAUSE, AND CONTINGENCY
Page 404:
ATTENTIONAL BIAS 187 Table 8.2: Inc
Page 408:
ATTENTIONAL BIAS 189 observations i
Page 412:
ATTENTIONAL BIAS 191 .9 − .7 cond
Page 416:
EFFECTS OF PRIOR BELIEF 193 know th
Page 420:
EFFECTS OF PRIOR BELIEF 195 lated s
Page 424:
EFFECTS OF PRIOR BELIEF 197 evidenc
Page 428:
Chapter 9 Actively open-minded thin
Page 432:
EXAMPLES OF ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED TH
Page 436:
MYSIDE BIAS AND IRRATIONAL BELIEF P
Page 440:
Page 444:
Page 448:
Page 452:
EFFECT OF ACTIVE OPEN-MINDEDNESS ON
Page 456:
DETERMINANTS AND RELATED PHENOMENA
Page 460:
Page 464:
Page 468:
Page 472:
FACTORS THAT MODERATE BELIEF PERSIS
Page 476:
Page 480:
Page 484:
CONCLUSION 227 Are the biases discu
Page 492:
Part II was concerned with thinking
Page 498:
234 NORMATIVE THEORY OF CHOICE UNDE
Page 502:
Page 506:
Page 510:
Page 514:
Page 518:
Page 522:
Page 526:
Page 530:
Page 534:
Page 538:
Page 542:
Page 546:
258 DESCRIPTIVE THEORY OF CHOICE UN
Page 550:
Page 554:
Page 558:
Page 562:
Page 566:
Page 570:
Page 574:
Page 578:
Page 582:
Page 586:
Page 590:
Page 594:
Page 598:
Page 602:
Page 608:
Chapter 12 Choice under certainty T
Page 612:
PROMINENCE AND NONCOMPENSATORY STRA
Page 616:
OTHER REVERSALS: COMPATIBILITY AND
Page 620:
EFFECTS OF THE OPTIONS AVAILABLE ON
Page 624:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 297 think about t
Page 628:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 299 jects may be
Page 632:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 301 When we evalu
Page 636:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 303 a promotion f
Page 640:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 305 The extra-cos
Page 644:
MENTAL ACCOUNTING 307 Mr. Munn and
Page 648:
CONCLUSION 309 Most of these heuris
Page 654:
312 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Most of the
Page 658:
314 UTILITY MEASUREMENT dollar. Hig
Page 662:
316 UTILITY MEASUREMENT My answer i
Page 666:
318 UTILITY MEASUREMENT we can mean
Page 670:
320 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Simple dire
Page 674:
322 UTILITY MEASUREMENT I could con
Page 678:
324 UTILITY MEASUREMENT be useful f
Page 682:
326 UTILITY MEASUREMENT Of course t
Page 686:
328 UTILITY MEASUREMENT is equivale
Page 690:
330 UTILITY MEASUREMENT their healt
Page 694:
332 UTILITY MEASUREMENT money as 0
Page 698:
334 UTILITY MEASUREMENT really deci
Page 702:
336 UTILITY MEASUREMENT pay about t
Page 706:
338 UTILITY MEASUREMENT from SGs. I
Page 710:
340 UTILITY MEASUREMENT at maximizi
Page 714:
342 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES ot
Page 718:
344 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ke
Page 722:
346 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES of
Page 726:
348 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES de
Page 730:
350 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ta
Page 734:
352 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES It
Page 738:
354 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Ta
Page 742:
356 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES si
Page 746:
358 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES Th
Page 750:
360 DECISION ANALYSIS AND VALUES of
Page 756:
Chapter 15 Quantitative judgment Qu
Page 760:
THE LENS MODEL 365 Table 15.1: Data
Page 764:
THE LENS MODEL 367 In addition to t
Page 768:
THE LENS MODEL 369 (von Winterfeldt
Page 772:
THE LENS MODEL 371 because it belie
Page 776:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 373 proba
Page 780:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 375 The t
Page 784:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 377 pende
Page 788:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 379 1963.
Page 792:
THE MECHANISM OF JUDGMENT 381 Elimi
Page 796:
CLASSIFICATION 383 more eggs. ‘Ho
Page 800:
FUNCTIONAL MEASUREMENT AND CONJOINT
Page 804:
CONCLUSION 387 quality. The numbers
Page 810:
390 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE We th
Page 814:
392 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Relat
Page 818:
394 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE appea
Page 822:
396 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Moral
Page 826:
398 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE conse
Page 830:
400 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE must
Page 834:
402 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Suppo
Page 838:
404 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE is na
Page 842:
406 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE freed
Page 846:
408 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE again
Page 850:
410 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE optio
Page 854:
412 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE Natur
Page 858:
414 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE If th
Page 862:
416 MORAL JUDGMENT AND CHOICE error
Page 866:
418 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE the idea o
Page 870:
420 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE subject ha
Page 874:
422 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE to maximiz
Page 878:
424 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE people for
Page 882:
426 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE We can thu
Page 886:
428 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE subjects a
Page 890:
430 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE great deal
Page 894:
432 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE but not ex
Page 898:
434 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE that the c
Page 902:
436 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE being, any
Page 906:
438 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE to take ou
Page 910:
440 FAIRNESS AND JUSTICE Conclusion
Page 914:
442 SOCIAL DILEMMAS: COOPERATION VE
Page 918:
Page 922:
Page 926:
Page 930:
Page 934:
Page 938:
Page 942:
Page 946:
Page 950:
Page 954:
Page 958:
Page 962:
Page 966:
Page 972:
Chapter 19 Decisions about the futu
Page 976:
THE CHOICE OF PERSONAL GOALS 473 Mo
Page 980:
GOOD REASONS FOR STICKING TO PLANS
Page 984:
BAD REASONS FOR STICKING TO PLANS:
Page 988:
DISCOUNTING 479 Figure 19.1: Subjec
Page 992:
DISCOUNTING 481 noted. If you have
Page 996:
DISCOUNTING 483 The high subjective
Page 1000:
DISCOUNTING 485 in nine months, or
Page 1004:
DISCOUNTING 487 bly, in order to ge
Page 1008:
SELF-CONTROL 489 Why we need self-c
Page 1012:
SELF-CONTROL 491 offered the fourth
Page 1016:
ADAPTATION, CONTRAST, AND HEURISTIC
Page 1020:
MORALITY AND PRUDENCE 495 Morality
Page 1024:
Chapter 20 Risk Decisions under unc
Page 1028:
NORMATIVE THEORY 499 each individua
Page 1032:
NORMATIVE THEORY 501 example, to re
Page 1036:
RISK REGULATION AND THE INTUITIONS
Page 1040:
RISK REGULATION AND THE INTUITIONS
Page 1044:
OTHER BIASES IN RISK JUDGMENTS 507
Page 1048:
Page 1052:
Page 1056:
Page 1060:
Page 1064:
INSURANCE AND PROTECTIVE BEHAVIOR 5
Page 1068:
INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS 519 abi
Page 1072:
INVESTORS AND ENTREPRENEURS 521 Con
Page 1076:
INDIVIDUAL AND SEX DIFFERENCES 523
Page 1080:
CONCLUSION 525 ficials thought that
Page 1086:
528 REFERENCES Alpert, W., & Raiffa
Page 1090:
530 REFERENCES Baron, J. (1997b). C
Page 1094:
532 REFERENCES Behn, R. D., & Vaupe
Page 1098:
534 REFERENCES Social Psychology, 6
Page 1102:
536 REFERENCES Davis, W. A. (1981).
Page 1106:
538 REFERENCES Elster, J. (1983). S
Page 1110:
540 REFERENCES for osteoporosis: Wh
Page 1114:
542 REFERENCES Harris, R. J., & Joy
Page 1118:
544 REFERENCES Oregon did. Journal
Page 1122:
546 REFERENCES Kahneman, D., & Tver
Page 1126:
548 REFERENCES Kuhn, D., Phelps, E.
Page 1130:
550 REFERENCES Lopes, L. L. (1987a)
Page 1134:
552 REFERENCES Mischel, W., Shoda,
Page 1138:
554 REFERENCES Parks, C. D., & Vu,
Page 1142:
556 REFERENCES Reuben, D. B. (1984)
Page 1146:
558 REFERENCES Schwartz, S. M., Bar
Page 1150:
560 REFERENCES Solnick, J. V., Kann
Page 1154:
562 REFERENCES 51, 176-197. Toulmin
Page 1158:
564 REFERENCES Walster, E., Walster
Page 1164:
Author Index Abelson, R. P., 148 Ab
Page 1168:
AUTHOR INDEX 569 Dawes, R. M., 156,
Page 1172:
AUTHOR INDEX 571 Huber, P. W., 519
Page 1176:
AUTHOR INDEX 573 Miyamoto, J. M., 3
Page 1180:
AUTHOR INDEX 575 Simon, H. A., 37,
Page 1184:
Subject Index 2 4 6 problem, 172 ab
Page 1188:
SUBJECT INDEX 579 culture, 428, 451
Page 1192:
SUBJECT INDEX 581 invariance, 116,
Page 1196:
SUBJECT INDEX 583 quantitative thin
show all

Thinking and Deciding

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?