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Reduction and Elimination in Philosophy and the Sciences

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tual sequences, <strong>and</strong> relative frequencies <strong>the</strong>re<strong>in</strong>, is ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />

matter.” H. Cramér takes a similar stance: “[Limit<strong>in</strong>g<br />

frequencies] <strong>in</strong>volve a mixture of empirical <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>oretical<br />

elements, which is usually avoided <strong>in</strong> modern axiomatic<br />

<strong>the</strong>ories.” (quoted <strong>in</strong> Gillies 2000, 100)<br />

As <strong>the</strong> quote by Cramér suggests, <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> problem<br />

of limit<strong>in</strong>g frequencies seems <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>extricable mixture of<br />

ontic <strong>and</strong> epistemic elements. This squares badly with <strong>the</strong><br />

usual dist<strong>in</strong>ction between epistemic <strong>and</strong> ontic accounts of<br />

probability 2 . Subjective <strong>in</strong>terpretations of probability – <strong>in</strong><br />

terms of degrees of belief – can readily account for <strong>the</strong><br />

smooth<strong>in</strong>g out of <strong>the</strong> discrete probability distributions.<br />

However, it seems odd to <strong>in</strong>terpret probabilities as degrees<br />

of belief with<strong>in</strong> objective sciences like physics. But thus far,<br />

nobody has yet managed to justify <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>f<strong>in</strong>ite limit on <strong>the</strong><br />

basis of a purely objective account. Notwithst<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se<br />

difficulties, <strong>the</strong> scientific practice <strong>in</strong> statistical reductions<br />

forces us to make sense of <strong>the</strong> notion of limit<strong>in</strong>g<br />

frequencies. Maybe <strong>the</strong> lesson is to ab<strong>and</strong>on <strong>the</strong> hard<br />

dist<strong>in</strong>ction between ontic <strong>and</strong> epistemic accounts<br />

altoge<strong>the</strong>r.<br />

2 Excellent overviews of <strong>the</strong> different accounts of probability are Galavotti<br />

2005 <strong>and</strong> Gillies 2000.<br />

258<br />

Limit<strong>in</strong>g Frequencies <strong>in</strong> Scientific <strong>Reduction</strong>s — Wolfgang Pietsch<br />

Literature<br />

Batterman, Robert 2002 The Devil <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Details: Asymptotic Reason<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>in</strong> Explanation, <strong>Reduction</strong>, <strong>and</strong> Emergence, New York:<br />

Oxford University Press.<br />

Boltzmann, Ludwig 1872 “Weitere Studien über das Wärmegleichgewicht”,<br />

Wiener Berichte 66, 275-370.<br />

Galavotti, Maria C. 2005 Philosophical Introduction to Probability,<br />

Stanford: CSLI.<br />

Gillies, Donald 2000 Philosophical Theories of Probability, London:<br />

Routledge.<br />

Hajek, Alan 2007 “Interpretations of Probability”, <strong>in</strong>: Edward N.<br />

Zalta (ed.) Stanford Encyclopedia of <strong>Philosophy</strong>,<br />

http://plato.stanford.edu.<br />

Hoyn<strong>in</strong>gen-Huene, Paul 2007 “Reduktion und Emergenz”, <strong>in</strong>: Andreas<br />

Bartels <strong>and</strong> Manfred Stöckler (eds.) Wissenschafts<strong>the</strong>orie.<br />

E<strong>in</strong> Studienbuch, Paderborn: mentis, 177-197.<br />

Nagel, Ernest 1974 “Issues <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Logic of Reductive Explanations”,<br />

repr<strong>in</strong>ted <strong>in</strong>: Mart<strong>in</strong> Curd <strong>and</strong> J.A. Cover (eds.), <strong>Philosophy</strong><br />

of Science. The Central Issues, London: Norton, 905-921.<br />

Nickles, Thomas 1973 "Two concepts of <strong>in</strong>ter<strong>the</strong>oretic reduction",<br />

The Journal of <strong>Philosophy</strong>, 70/7: 181–201.

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