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statistique, théorie et gestion de portefeuille - Docs at ISFA

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102 3. Distributions exponentielles étirées contre distributions régulièrement variables<br />

Thus, we g<strong>et</strong> from equ<strong>at</strong>ion (117):<br />

and from equ<strong>at</strong>ions (124) and (118):<br />

ĉ <br />

1<br />

2 S2 − S 2 1<br />

1<br />

2S1S2 − 1<br />

3S3 ˆηT<br />

ˆb − 1 = ĉ · S2 1<br />

1 − 2S2 + ĉ<br />

2 [S1S2 − 1<br />

S1 + ĉ<br />

2S2 + ĉ2<br />

6 S3<br />

, (135)<br />

3 S3]<br />

. (136)<br />

Now, accounting for the fact th<strong>at</strong> the variables ξ1 = S1 − b−1 , ξ2 = S2 − 2b−2 and ξ3 = S3 − 6b−3 are<br />

asymptoticaly Gaussian random variables with zero mean and variance of or<strong>de</strong>r T −1/2 , we obtain, <strong>at</strong> the<br />

lowest or<strong>de</strong>r in T −1/2 :<br />

ĉ = b 2<br />

<br />

2ξ1 − b<br />

2 ξ2<br />

<br />

, (137)<br />

and<br />

which shows th<strong>at</strong><br />

S2 1<br />

1 − 2S2 + ĉ<br />

2 [S1S2 − 1<br />

3S3] S1 + ĉ<br />

2 S2 + ĉ2<br />

6 S3<br />

ˆηT<br />

ˆb<br />

− 1 = b2<br />

<br />

<br />

= 2ξ1 − b<br />

2 ξ2<br />

<br />

, (138)<br />

2ξ1 − b<br />

2 ξ2<br />

2<br />

. (139)<br />

We now use the fact th<strong>at</strong> ξ1, ξ2 are asymptotically Gaussian random variables with zero mean. We find their<br />

variances:<br />

Var(ξ1) = 1<br />

T b2 , Var(ξ2) = 20<br />

T b4 , and Cov(ξ1,ξ2) = 4<br />

.<br />

T b3 (140)<br />

Using equ<strong>at</strong>ion (139), the random variable b(2ξ1 − bξ2/2) is in the limit of large T a Gaussian rv with zero<br />

mean and variance 1/T , i.e., ζT is asymptoticaly distributed according to a χ 2 distribution with one <strong>de</strong>gree<br />

of freedom.<br />

Thus, the test consists in accepting H0 if ζT ≤ χ2 1−ε (1) and rejecting it otherwise. (ε <strong>de</strong>notes the asymptotic<br />

level of the test).<br />

38

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