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statistique, théorie et gestion de portefeuille - Docs at ISFA

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98 3. Distributions exponentielles étirées contre distributions régulièrement variables<br />

so th<strong>at</strong> the binding function can be expressed as<br />

b † (c,d) = c · e −( u d ) c<br />

<br />

−1 u<br />

c Γ 0, , when c > 0 (89)<br />

d<br />

In the case when c goes to zero and c and d are rel<strong>at</strong>ed by equ<strong>at</strong>ion (47), we can still calcul<strong>at</strong>e b † . In<strong>de</strong>ed,<br />

we can first show th<strong>at</strong><br />

<br />

u<br />

c ∼<br />

d<br />

1<br />

<br />

1<br />

c T<br />

T<br />

ln xi<br />

−1 =<br />

u<br />

1<br />

c · ˆb. (90)<br />

Now, using the asymptoptic rel<strong>at</strong>ion<br />

we conclu<strong>de</strong> th<strong>at</strong><br />

∑<br />

i=1<br />

e x · Γ(0,x) ∼ x −1 , as x → ∞, (91)<br />

b † (ĉ, ˆ<br />

d) = ˆb, as ĉ → 0. (92)<br />

This result is in fact n<strong>at</strong>ural because the PD mo<strong>de</strong>l can be seen formally as the limit of the SE mo<strong>de</strong>l for<br />

c → 0 un<strong>de</strong>r the condition<br />

as previously exposed in section 4.1<br />

<br />

u<br />

c c · → β,<br />

d<br />

as c → 0 , (93)<br />

Now, following Mizon and Richard (1986), the mo<strong>de</strong>l (SE) with pdf f1 is said to encompass the mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />

(PD) with pdf f2 if the best represent<strong>at</strong>ive of (PD) -with param<strong>et</strong>er b ∗ - is also the distribution nearest to the<br />

best represent<strong>at</strong>ive of (SE) -with param<strong>et</strong>ers (c ∗ ,d ∗ ). Thus, (SE) is said to encompass (PD) if and only if<br />

b ∗ = b † (c ∗ ,d ∗ ).<br />

The reverse situ<strong>at</strong>ion can be consi<strong>de</strong>red in or<strong>de</strong>r to study the encompassing of the mo<strong>de</strong>l (SE) by the mo<strong>de</strong>l<br />

(PD). Such situ<strong>at</strong>ion occurs if and only if<br />

c ∗<br />

D.1.3 Wald encompassing test<br />

d ∗<br />

<br />

c † (b∗ )<br />

=<br />

d † (b∗ )<br />

<br />

. (94)<br />

We first test the encompassing of (PD) into (SE), namely the null hypothesis H0 = {b ∗ = b † (c ∗ ,d ∗ )}.<br />

Un<strong>de</strong>r this null hypothesis, it can be shown (Gouriéroux and Monfort 1994) th<strong>at</strong> the random variable<br />

√ T ˆb − b † (ĉ, ˆ<br />

d) is asymptotically normally distributed with zero mean and variance V given by<br />

V = K −1<br />

C12]K −1<br />

22 [C22 −C21C −1<br />

11<br />

+ K −1 −1<br />

22<br />

[C21C11 − ˜C21K −1<br />

11<br />

22 +<br />

]C11[C −1<br />

11 C12 − K −1<br />

11<br />

˜C12]K −1<br />

22<br />

where the expression of the coefficients involved in V will be given below. Thus, un<strong>de</strong>r H0, the random variable<br />

ξT = T ˆb − b † (ĉ, d) ˆ<br />

ˆV −1 ˆb − b † (ĉ, d) ˆ<br />

, where ˆV −1 is a consistent estim<strong>at</strong>or of V −1 , follows asymptotically<br />

a χ2-distribution with one <strong>de</strong>grees of freedom.<br />

The m<strong>at</strong>rix K11 is given by<br />

K11(i, j) = −E0<br />

∂ 2 ln f1(x|c ∗ ,d ∗ )<br />

∂αi∂α j<br />

34<br />

(95)<br />

<br />

, i, j = 1,2, (96)

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