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statistique, théorie et gestion de portefeuille - Docs at ISFA

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218 8. Tests <strong>de</strong> copule gaussienne<br />

ν = 3<br />

ν = 5<br />

ν = 8<br />

ν = 20<br />

ρ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9<br />

d1 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.04 0.07<br />

d2 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.06<br />

d3 0.22 0.17 0.08 0.03 0.01<br />

d4 0.03 0.03 0.08 0.03 0.04<br />

ρ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9<br />

d1 0.46 0.47 0.46 0.52 0.52<br />

d2 0.36 0.34 0.39 0.44 0.43<br />

d3 0.52 0.54 0.47 0.30 0.14<br />

d4 0.37 0.36 0.43 0.45 0.45<br />

ρ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9<br />

d1 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89<br />

d2 0.85 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.88<br />

d3 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.81 0.70<br />

d4 0.86 0.85 0.90 0.89 0.90<br />

ρ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9<br />

d1 0.97 0.99 0.97 0.99 0.99<br />

d2 0.99 0.99 0.97 0.99 0.99<br />

d3 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.97<br />

d4 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99<br />

ν = 4<br />

ν = 7<br />

ν = 10<br />

ν = 50<br />

ρ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9<br />

d1 0.28 0.26 0.32 0.30 0.29<br />

d2 0.18 0.17 0.21 0.21 0.24<br />

d3 0.36 0.33 0.26 0.15 0.03<br />

d4 0.18 0.17 0.23 0.21 0.21<br />

ρ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9<br />

d1 0.78 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.86<br />

d2 0.71 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.82<br />

d3 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.73 0.52<br />

d4 0.75 0.81 0.79 0.80 0.83<br />

ρ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9<br />

d1 0.92 0.93 0.96 0.95 0.94<br />

d2 0.93 0.92 0.95 0.96 0.94<br />

d3 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.88<br />

d4 0.94 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.95<br />

ρ 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9<br />

d1 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99<br />

d2 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99<br />

d3 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99<br />

d4 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99<br />

Table 1: The values p 95%(ν, ρ) shown in this table give the maximum values th<strong>at</strong> the probability p should<br />

take in or<strong>de</strong>r to be able to reject the hypothesis th<strong>at</strong> a Stu<strong>de</strong>nt’s copula with ν <strong>de</strong>grees and correl<strong>at</strong>ion<br />

ρ is undistinguishable from a Gaussian copula <strong>at</strong> the 95% confi<strong>de</strong>nce level. p 95% is the abscissa corresponding<br />

to the ordin<strong>at</strong>e D(p 95%) = 0.95 shown in figures 3 and 4. p is the probability th<strong>at</strong> pairs of<br />

Gaussian random variables with the correl<strong>at</strong>ion coefficient ρ have a distance (b<strong>et</strong>ween the distribution of<br />

z 2 and the theor<strong>et</strong>ical χ 2 distribution) equal to or larger than the corresponding distance obtained for the<br />

Stu<strong>de</strong>nt’s vector time series. A small p corresponds to a clear distinction b<strong>et</strong>ween Stu<strong>de</strong>nt’s and Gaussian<br />

vectors, as it is improbable th<strong>at</strong> Gaussian vectors exhibit a distance larger than found for the Stu<strong>de</strong>nt’s<br />

vectors. Different values of the number ν of <strong>de</strong>grees of freedom ranging from ν = 3 to ν = 50 and of<br />

the correl<strong>at</strong>ion coefficient ρ = 0.1 to 0.9 are shown. L<strong>et</strong> us take for instance the example with ν = 4 and<br />

ρ = 0.3. The table indic<strong>at</strong>es th<strong>at</strong> p should be less than about 0.3 (resp. 0.2) according to the distances d1<br />

and d3 (resp. d2 and d4) for being able to distinguish this Stu<strong>de</strong>nt’s copula from the Gaussian copula <strong>at</strong><br />

the 95% confi<strong>de</strong>nce level. This means th<strong>at</strong> less than 20−30% of Gaussian vectors should have a distance<br />

for their z 2 larger than the one found for the Stu<strong>de</strong>nt’s. See text for further explan<strong>at</strong>ions.<br />

26

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