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Urban crime and violence: Conditions and trends69countries. For instance, while in Latin America, a householdliving in a city of 1 million or more people is 78 per centmore likely to be victimized by crime than a household livingin a city of between 50,000 and 100,000 people, the correspondingfigure for the US is 28 per cent. 146 The linkbetween crime and city size in developing countries can beexplained by three factors. 147 First, returns on crime arelikely to be higher in larger cities due to the greater concentrationof wealthier victims, more opportunities to commitvarious types of crime, and a more developed second-handmarket for the disposal of stolen items. Second, the chancesof arresting a criminal might be lower in larger cities becauselarge cities spend less on law enforcement per capita, orhave lower levels of community cooperation with the police,or require more police officers per inhabitant to effect anarrest. Finally, larger cities have a greater proportion ofcrime-prone individuals/potential criminals.The blanket association between size, density andcrime has been the basis of attempts to stop or limit the sizeof new residential developments in many cities and to haltthe expansion of existing residential areas, especially slums.As suggested by cities such as Cairo, New York, Hong Kongand Singapore, there are many exceptions when urban areasare compared on the basis of population size alone.Differential crime rates suggest that city size alone does not‘cause’ crime and violence since some of the largest citiessuch as New York have comparatively low rates, thus disprovingconventional wisdom. 148 Although vastly different inscale, a study of Madagascar communes suggested that crimewas positively associated with low population densities andfeelings of insecurity and isolation, contrary to expectationsabout the link between urban size, density and crime. 149There are many dimensions to connections betweenpopulation density and crime. Confounding factors such asculture, socio-economic development, governance and thestrength of civil society controls are arguably as importantdeterminants of crime and violence rates as populationdensity. Within cities of all sizes, crime is concentratedwithin certain, generally known, geographic areas andpopulation density is just one of many variables that play arole in its occurrence. There is evidence that populationdensity is variably related to the occurrence of differenttypes of crimes. For example, some US-based researchsuggests that high-density cities have fewer burglaries thanlower-density cities. According to this research, motorvehicle thefts are also higher in denser cities. 150 Reasons forthe differential effects are ascribed to opportunity, risk,effort and reward factors that are related to residential structuraltype and the opportunity for surveillance of propertythat may be planned or fortuitous. For example, becausehigh-density residences are typically located in apartmentcomplexes, they are more risky and difficult for burglars toenter than detached suburban houses with rear doors andwindows, which burglars favour because of reduced surveillancepossibilities.In sum, city size and density measures are importantrelative to predicting crime rates, but are incomplete determinantsof criminal or violent behaviour, and may beovershadowed by other, more local, social and environmentalBox 3.3 Rapid urban growth and crime: The example ofSão Paulo, BrazilSão Paulo’s population exploded at an annual rate of 5 per cent from 1870 to 2000, with thecity and its peripheral areas now hosting over 18 million people. The population of central SãoPaulo expanded by 171 per cent between 1940 and 1960, and its suburban areas grew by 364per cent in the same period, largely due to rural in-migration. Existing civil institutions wereoverwhelmed by the pace and size of population growth and were incapable of dealing withdemands for services in the hundreds of illegal subdivisions that sprang up, where standards ofdue process of law are low or non-existent and levels of retributive justice and vigilantism arehigh. Crime increased along with the rapid pace of urbanization, such that in 1999, the cityrecorded 11,455 murders, more than 17 times that of New York City’s 667 murders. One ofSão Paulo’s rapidly growing suburban municipalities, Diadema, reached a murder rate of 141 per100,000 individuals in 2003, one of the world’s highest rates. 151factors and by qualitative and economic forces relating tosocial inclusion and cohesion.Poor urban planning, design andmanagementOnly relatively recently has research pointed to the urbanenvironment as posing risk factors associated with crime andviolence. There is increasing evidence that poor planning,design and management of the urban environment putscitizens at risk of death, injury and loss of property. Placebasedcrime prevention and reduction theories of defensiblespace, 152 crime prevention through environmental design(CPTED), 153 situational crime prevention 154 and environmentalcriminology 155 have increasingly been supported byempirical research suggesting that physical design andmanagement of the built environment play a role in facilitatingor diminishing opportunities for crime and violence.While there is no way of accurately counting the number ofincidents related to physical design or management, it hasbeen estimated that 10 to 15 per cent of crimes haveenvironmental design and management components. 156Globally, this amounts to millions of incidents eachyear. Thus, land-use juxtapositions, street layouts, buildingand site design, transportation system planning, infrastructureimprovements – especially lighting and facility andlandscape maintenance, as well as activity and space scheduling– have been shown to have variable impacts on crimeopportunity and on the subsequent incidence and fear ofcrime. 157 The lack of integration of crime prevention strategieswithin comprehensive city planning practices has beencited as a factor in facilitating opportunities for urbancrime. 158 Physical planning can make a difference in terms ofcrime prevention/reduction, to more effective policing, toinformal surveillance and to the protection of persons andproperty. For example, street widening programmes canopen up previously impenetrable urban areas to police andemergency service vehicles, and the creation of new housingor commercial developments can change traffic generationpatterns and may provide increased economic and residentialopportunities. Site design that provides increasedprospects for people to observe their surroundings canreduce criminal opportunity.There is increasingevidence that poorplanning, design andmanagement of theurban environmentputs citizens at riskof death, injury andloss of propertyIt has beenestimated that10 to 15 per cent ofcrimes haveenvironmentaldesign and managementcomponents