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196Natural and human-made disasters…technicaladvances … forhazard mapping …are often lacking indevelopingcountries…environment vis-à-vis an analysis of exposure to hazard andsusceptibility to harm, as well as capacity to respond to disasters.Hazard and risk assessments employ a range oftechniques, from quantitative analysis built around scenariomodelling and mapping to qualitative, non-technicalapproaches, depending upon the kinds of data that need tobe generated.Hazard mappingHazard assessment involves an analysis of the likelihood ofoccurrence of natural or human-made hazards in a specificfuture time period, including their intensity and area ofimpact. 4 Data generated through hazard assessments needsto be presented to decision-makers and communities at riskto raise awareness and enable the design of appropriateinterventions and policies. One approach is the use of mapsto depict the spatial location, size and frequency of hazards.This allows general statements to be made about theexposure of national urban systems and individual cities tohazards.■ Mapping natural hazardAt the global scale, hazard mapping is well advanced forvolcanic, earthquake, flood, wind and landslide hazards. 5Many countries also have national hazard maps, particularlyof geophysical hazards. While global- and national-scalehazard maps can help to identify national legislative or policyplanning priorities, planning at the city level requires moredetailed information. Many cities in middle- and highincomecountries, particularly those which areadministrative or industrial centres, have detailed single andmulti-hazard maps. During the last decade, the number ofcities with seismic hazard maps has increased. 6 Otherhazards, such as flooding and extreme temperatures, varyspatially, requiring more continuous monitoring andmapping, which can be more costly.The advent of geographic information systems (GIS),coupled with satellite imagery of disaster events, haverevolutionized the amount of data that is now availableworldwide. While technical advances have increased thepotential for hazard mapping, they have also generatedinequalities in hazard assessment capacities. Technicalapproaches require financial investment in hardware andhuman resources that are often lacking in developingcountries and are beyond reach for poorer urban authorities.Partnerships between technical advisory bodies and nationalcentres for disaster management offer a potential mechanismfor technology and skill transfer. One example of this isthe Government of India–United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP) Urban Earthquake VulnerabilityReduction Project, shown in Box 8.1. 7Low-impact, high-frequency hazards are less likely tobe mapped, despite their erosive impact on human healthBox 8.1 India’s national hazard map: A foundation for coordinated disaster risk reductionAn example of cooperation in disaster risk reductionbetween an international organization and a national governmentis the Government of India–United NationsDevelopment Programme (UNDP) Disaster RiskManagement Programme. A key subcomponent of thisprogramme is the Urban Earthquake Vulnerability ReductionProject, implemented between 2003 and 2007. The projectaims to raise awareness of earthquake risk in urban areasamong decision-makers and the public and to improve disasterpreparedness.Several of India’s populous cities, including the capital,New Delhi, are located in zones of high seismic risk. Nationaldata on seismic hazard has been used to identify 38 citieswith populations of 500,000 or more that have become thefocus for the project. The map in Figure 8.1 was developedby the project and shows four levels of seismic risk and 60cities from which the 38 partner cities were selected.Key expected outcomes of the project, amongothers, include enhanced disaster risk management capacity,effective administrative and institutional frameworks forearthquake risk management in the most exposed urbancentres, and development of emergency, preparedness andrecovery plans for those urban centres. The project alsointends to build local capacity for risk assessment, preparednessand response.Source: adapted from UNDP India,www.undp.org.in/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=?84&Itemid=264HARYANA MeendDelhiBanhillyUTTARRAJASTHAN Agra PRADESHJodhpurLucknowGarabor KanpurBIHARKeta Allahabad PatnaVaranasiGUJARATAhmadabad Bhopal Jabalpur Ranchi AsansolJamnagar Rajkot IndoreMADAYA JamshedpurPRADESHKolkataVadodaraBhavnagarORISSASuratNagpur DurgRaigarh CuttackNashik MAHARASHTRABasseinAhmadnagarBhubaneswarMumbaiPune WarangalFigure 8.1VishakhapatnamHyderabadIndian earthquakeANDHRA Vijayawadazones indicating 60Belgaum PRADESHGoacities with a populationexceeding 0.5 millionMangalore BangaloreChennaiMysore TAMILNADU PondicherryKozikhode SalemCoimbatore TiruchirapalliKochin MaduraiLAKSHADWEEPJammuHIMACHALPRADESHDehra DunPUNJABKUMAUNKARNATAKATrivandrumCity locationVery high risk zoneHigh risk zoneModerate risk zoneLow risk zoneASSAMGauhati
Policy responses to disaster risk197and livelihoods. This gap has been filled in some neighbourhoodsby community-based hazard and risk mappingprojects. This data, combined with national- and city-levelrecords of past events, can be used to identify priorities forurban planning and construction standards.Less information is available at the global scale forhazards that affect the lifelines to a city such as drought, oremerging hazards such as heat and cold shocks. Global-scaledata can be used to extend analyses of hazard exposurebeyond the municipal boundary to demonstrate the vulnerabilityof cities to disasters affecting their hinterland bydisrupting trade, or blocking access and flows of resourcesand waste.■ Mapping human-made hazardNational directories of human-made hazards are becomingmore common, and many are open to the public. In the UK,the Environment Agency hosts a pollution and hazardouswaste sites inventory. This is searchable by postal code andalso provides information on water quality and flood hazard. 8In the US, Green Media’s Toolshed website includes asearchable scorecard, which provides data on chemicalsbeing released from any of 20,000 industrial facilities, or asummary report for any area in the country. 9 More difficultis the mapping of human-made risk associated with industrialfacilities, buildings’ integrity or transport infrastructure.Much of the information needed to build comparativehazard datasets is commercially valuable and therefore notreleased to the public.Local authority land-use planning maps and schedulesinclude information on industrial sites where hazardousactivities are undertaken, and can be used as a basis forurban industrial hazard mapping. This is particularly valuablefor assessing the risk of human-made disasters caused bynatural hazards. More difficult is the acquisition of data oninformal-sector industrial activities, such as tanneries orfireworks factories. These might not represent a significanthazard individually; but, in aggregate, unplanned industrialactivity is a major risk to health from air, water and groundpollution and from fire and explosion hazards. Risk is heightenedbecause of the unregulated nature of informalindustrial activity and its close proximity to densely settledresidential areas.Risk assessments for individual citiesAs noted in Chapter 7, there is limited comparative data onnatural disaster risk and impacts at the city level. Two initiativeshave made major contributions at this level of analysis –namely, the Natural Hazards Risk Index for Megacities byMunich Re (see Chapter 7) 10 and the Earthquake DisasterRisk Index used by GeoHazards International (GHI).GHI developed and applied an Earthquake LethalityEstimation Method in 2000/2001. The method producesresults that indicate the relative severity of earthquake risk,the sources of risk within each city, and the relative effectivenessof potential mitigation options. The same results arealso produced for the exposure of school children to collapseof educational buildings. The method was applied to cities inBox 8.2 Estimating urban loss of life to earthquakesGeoHazards International’s (GHI) Earthquake Lethality Estimation Method estimates thenumber of lives that would be lost if all parts of a city experience earthquake shaking at a levelthat has a 10 per cent chance of being equalled or exceeded in 50 years. The method has beenapplied to assess the risk of life loss in 22 cities in the Americas and Asia. Deaths caused bybuilding collapse, earthquake-induced landslides and fires are included. Capacity for organizedsearch, rescue and emergency medical care is also considered. Results are validated over timethrough a comparison of estimates with actual loss. GHI’s approach is especially noteworthybecause of its emphasis on the safety of school children, which reflects the vulnerability ofschools.Data is collected through meetings with local experts and city officials dealing withseismology, soils and landslides; city planning; building inventory; school buildings; emergencyresponse; medical emergency preparedness; hospital emergency preparedness; and firepreparedness.Results show great variation in the risk of earthquake-induced loss of life in cities. Forexample, in the American region, a person living in Mexicali is almost three times more likely tobe killed by an earthquake than a person living in Quito, and about ten times more likely than aperson living in Santiago. In the Asian region, a person living in Kathmandu is about nine timesmore likely to be killed by an earthquake than a person living in Islamabad and about 60 timesmore likely than a person living in Tokyo.GHI’s approach is also able to identify differences in the immediate causes of death and,thus, guide the subsequent development of mitigation strategies and policies. For example, in acomparison between Delhi and San Salvador, while most of the deaths in Delhi will be due tobuilding collapse and earthquake-induced fires, an important fraction of the deaths in SanSalvador will be due to earthquake-induced landslides.The analysis of school risk also shows differentiated vulnerability across cities. A schoolchild in Kathmandu is 400 times more likely to be killed by an earthquake than a school child inKobe and 30 times more likely than a school child in Tashkent.Source: GHI, 2001the Americas and Asia, differentiated by city size (see Box8.2).The philosophy of GHI is that loss estimation is both aprocess and a product. The process aspect engages decisionmakersat the community and city levels and recognizes thatdata alone is insufficient to effect change in human behaviour.The process of assessment includes local expertise andfavours rapid assessment that can feed into ongoingdecision-making over possibly more accurate, but also morecostly and less participatory, methods. Readily available informationis supported with data from local experts. The finalresults allow a quantitative assessment of the effectivenessof mitigation options under consideration.Including indicators for social vulnerability in riskassessment at the city level is difficult since it requires theavailability of relevant data on population and social indicators.For instance, research on risk of heat waves in Londonhas used census data and is appropriate for those countriesthat have spatially disaggregated and high-quality censusdata. 11 In the majority of cities, especially those that arerapidly expanding in poorer countries, this is not a reliablesource of data. Other methods, such as the use of satelliteinformation on night-time lights and fires, offer an alternative,but still not comprehensive, measurement ofpopulation density in rapidly expanding and poor cities.Comparison of disaster risk between districts within acity has rarely been undertaken. One example of this…there is limitedcomparative data onnatural disaster riskand impacts at thecity level
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ENHANCING URBAN SAFETYAND SECURITY
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First published by Earthscan in the
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INTRODUCTIONEnhancing Urban Safety
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe preparation of
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xEnhancing Urban Safety and Securit
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xiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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xivEnhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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xviEnhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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xviiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Sec
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LIST OF FIGURES, BOXES ANDTABLESFIG
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xxiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Secu
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xxivEnhancing Urban Safety and Secu
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xxviEnhancing Urban Safety and Secu
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xxviiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Se
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xxxEnhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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xxxiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Sec
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4Understanding Urban Safety and Sec
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1CHAPTERCURRENT THREATS TO URBANSAF
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Current threats to urban safety and
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2CHAPTERVULNERABILITY, RISK ANDRESI
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Vulnerability, risk and resilience:
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46Urban crime and violenceBox II.1
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48Urban crime and violenceit has mu
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50Urban crime and violenceFormal an
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52Urban crime and violenceContact c
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54Urban crime and violencePer 100,0
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56Urban crime and violenceBurglary
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58Urban crime and violencePercentag
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60Urban crime and violenceFigure 3.
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62Urban crime and violenceTable 3.3
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64Urban crime and violenceYouth gan
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68Urban crime and violenceType of v
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70Urban crime and violenceFrom a pl
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72Urban crime and violenceOne viole
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74Urban crime and violenceHigh homi
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76Urban crime and violenceAbused ch
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78Urban crime and violenceGenerally
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82Urban crime and violenceporate cr
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4CHAPTERURBAN CRIME AND VIOLENCE:PO
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86Urban crime and violenceUN-Habita
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88Urban crime and violenceBox 4.2 T
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90Urban crime and violenceBox 4.4 T
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92Urban crime and violenceLegislati
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94Urban crime and violenceabove wha
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96Urban crime and violenceCampaigns
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98Urban crime and violenceAvailable
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100Urban crime and violenceBox 4.7
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102Urban crime and violenceIn some
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104Urban crime and violenceInitiati
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106Urban crime and violenceThe most
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108Urban crime and violenceVandersc
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112Security of tenureBox III.1 Secu
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5CHAPTERSECURITY OF TENURE:CONDITIO
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116Security of tenureTable 5.1A gen
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118Security of tenureFully legalDeg
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120Security of tenureBox 5.4 Securi
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122Security of tenureUrban tenurein
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124Security of tenureAt least 2 mil
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126Security of tenureMarket-basedev
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128Security of tenureBox 5.11 Urban
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130Security of tenureOperationMuram
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132Security of tenureControl of lan
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134Security of tenureBox 5.18 Secur
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136Security of tenureNOTES1 Habitat
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138Security of tenureBox 6.1 The Mi
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140Security of tenureIt would be fo
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142Security of tenureBox 6.7 Land t
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144Security of tenureBox 6.10 What
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Page 203 and 204: Disaster risk: Conditions, trends a
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246Towards safer and more secure ci
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11CHAPTERENHANCING TENURE SECURITYA
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276Enhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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12CHAPTERMITIGATING THE IMPACTS OFD
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304Summary of case studiesSince its
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306Summary of case studies• The e
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308Summary of case studiestions wit
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310Summary of case studiesenvironme
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312Summary of case studiesothers. O
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314Summary of case studiespurposes.
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316Summary of case studiesThese eff
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318Summary of case studiesdevelopme
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320Summary of case studiestion exer
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322Summary of case studiesHousing r
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324Summary of case studiesProlonged
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326Summary of case studiesmomentum
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330Statistical annexIslands, Micron
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332Statistical annexNOMENCLATURE AN
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334Statistical annexPopulation, urb
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336Statistical annexSOURCES OF DATA
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410TABLE C.7continuedEnhancing Urba
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INDEXACHR (Asian Coalition for Hous
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Index435security of tenure 134confl
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Index437domestic abuse see intimate
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Index439hazard management 169hazard
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Index441Kosovo, security of tenure
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Index443participation 38, 296-299pa
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Index445individual 34-35municipal f
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Index447gun ownership 78Homeless Pe
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