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Disaster risk: Conditions, trends and impacts193because of overstretching the ecological basis of theireconomies, leading to political conflict and terminal decline.Future new risks might include those associated with globalenvironmental change and also with the increasing connectivityof urban centres worldwide that enables thetransmission of economic impacts through transport andfinance networks.Global hazard maps can be used to indicate the distributionof risk. Richer countries are most at risk fromabsolute economic loss, whereas poorer countries suffermore human loss, as well as economic loss, as a proportionof GDP. Human-made risk and recorded loss is greatest inlow-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Thelargest concentrations of urban populations, in megacities,represent focal points for urban risk, especially those citiesexposed to multiple hazards and with limited capacity forrisk management.Disaster impacts are seldom fully measured. This is aparticular problem for cities since they house much of theaccumulated cultural heritage of the world. Direct economicloss from damage and human impacts can be accounted for;but longer-term impacts on economies, or individual loss andpsychological trauma, are much more difficult to measure.Disaster losses are often compounded when one eventtriggers a secondary event, or when recovery and reconstructionactivities lead to ecological damage and socialdisruption. The social and political impacts of disasters areespecially sensitive to reconstruction, with this being anopportunity for improvements in governance, as well as inbasic needs.This chapter identified the following aspects of urbanizationthat shape disaster risk:1 Large cities and megacities concentrate and magnifyrisk.2 Smaller cities (less than 500,000 residents) that arehome to just over half of the world’s urban populationalso experience exposure to multiple risks, but arelikely to have limited formal capacity and organized civilsociety with which to build resilience.3 Ongoing demographic and social changes in cities are achallenge since social groups at risk may alter, requiringflexibility in disaster management. Nevertheless, theeconomically poor, politically marginalized and sociallyisolated (often women) are consistently the mostvulnerable.4 Urbanization processes modify the hazard profile of thecity directly – for example, through the urbanization ofhill slopes and floodplains – but also indirectly as theimpacts of climate change hit cities (the sites for a largeproportion of greenhouse gas emissions).5 Building standards are in place in almost all cities, butthey are seldom implemented. This, more than anyother policy challenge, highlights the need for socialpolicy to connect with technical and engineeringsolutions to risk management.6 The increasing numbers of urban residents forced tolive in slums and squatter settlements is an indication ofthe depth of failure of urban governance to provideeven the most basic needs and to protect the political,social, economic and cultural rights of all. Slums andsquatter settlements are places of great hazard, but alsoof great potential. Governance structures that canpartner with this local energy can reduce risk.7 Urban planning is seriously under capacity in mostcities. It is almost impossible for many planning departmentsto keep pace with rapid urbanization. Newtechniques in urban planning are needed that canextend formal practices into the informal housingsector. Meeting the MDGs is dependent upon this.Taking urban disaster risk management seriously requires anintegrated approach. For this reason, it is of concern thatvery few national Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers includerisk management. Although it is not unusual for urban plansto integrate hazard mitigation, the next step is to match thiswith a commitment for vulnerability reduction that includesrelevant social and economic policy.Comparing urban risk at the regional scale re-emphasizesthe centrality of urban governance as a driver for urbanrisk profiles. In those cities where strong government andcivil society sectors take risk reduction seriously, great gainscan be made.NOTES1 One exception is theAustralian government,which defines a small disasteras one where stateexpenditure (on all assistancemeasures) does notexceed AU$240,000(US$185,500), roughlyequivalent to the cost ofrepairing 20 houses.2 Kasperson et al, 1996.3 Blaikie et al, 1994.4 Data is drawn from the EM-DAT, CRED database. Onlyevents that exceed aminimum threshold of 10deaths, 100 people affectedor a call for internationalassistance or declaration ofa state of emergency areincluded. Consequently,many small disasters willhave been excluded. This islikely to have affected dataon transport and is alsoreflected in the absence of acategory for house fires.5 This is a term used in EM-DAT, CRED to describeaccidents involving mechanizedmodes of transport. Itcomprises of four disastersubsets involving air, boat,rail and road accidents.6 The current millennium hasbeen dubbed the ‘urbanmillennium’ given that, in2007, for the first time inhistory, the world’s urbanpopulation will equal therural population (UN-Habitat, 2006e).7 Kreimer et al, 2003.8 IFRC, 2003.9 Ibid.10 A global geography ofnatural disaster risk basedon exposed populations andpast losses (1980 to 2001)illustrates that bothpredominantly rural andurban regions are at riskworldwide. Loss to hydrologicalhazard (floods,landslides and hurricanes) ismost widespread, affectinghuman settlements in China,Southeast Asia and CentralAmerica, and in a band fromEastern Europe throughCentral and Eastern Asia.Loss to geological hazard(earthquakes and volcanoeruptions) is most concentratedin Central Asia andthe Mediterranean andPacific Rim states (e.g. Japan,the US and CentralAmerica). The Americasshow variable loss, with lowlevels of loss in NorthAmerica. Central Asia isexposed to losses from thegreatest number of hazardtypes. Likewise, the BlackSea region, Central Americaand Japan face multiplehazards. Data from Dilley etal, 2005; maps also adaptedfrom this source.11 Ibid.12 Ibid.13 EM-DAT, CRED, Universityof Louvain, Belgium,