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Current threats to urban safety and security21criminal desires is to be an object of study. The clandestinecharacter of criminal behaviour therefore ‘masks’ much ofthe important data about motivation and dynamics of crimeitself. The impact of individual crimes on victims is easier todocument.All of this suggests that devoting more effort to understandingthe contexts in which challenges to urban safetyand security occur would be a significant first step towardsimproving evidence. Here it should be possible to build onalready shared conclusions about existing trends. Forexample, if it is known that increased demographic growthwill create a growing housing shortage in cities in developingcountries, there should be no surprise that more and morepeople will illegally occupy public and private land (some ofit vulnerable to natural hazards) because they have no legalalternatives. This will exacerbate the problem of insecurityof tenure. It can be expected that people do not break rulesand risk punishment if they have other ways of meeting theirneeds. 85 Unless sound policy is developed to increase accessto tenure security, it is reasonable to expect more difficultiesfor the urban poor and the increasing probability of moreforced evictions.Methodologies and public understandingWhile perception and evidence can be obstacles to improvingpublic understanding, there are also significant problemsin methods of analysis, as discussed later in this GlobalReport. Methodological problems can be grouped into thefollowing categories:• defining issues relevant to discussing the three threatsto urban safety and security addressed in this report;• specifying origins and sequences of causation;• describing agents, whether perpetrators of crime;individuals or institutions affecting security of tenure orcarrying out evictions; or individuals or institutionsinvolved in preparedness, mitigation or recovery fromdisasters;• identifying victims;• measuring impact;• establishing typologies of impact;• identifying loci of responsibility;• establishing the basis for comparative analysis; and• identifying effective forms of prevention or goodpractice.All three of these challenges to urban safety and securityreflect policy failures, inadequate institutional capacity atboth national and local government levels, and insufficientpublic education for analysis of risk and probabilities ofthreats to urban safety and security, preparedness, responseand remedy. The responsibility for these inadequacies,however, is not strictly limited to urban policies directlyconcerned with human settlements, and particularly slums,but also reflects constraints imposed by macro-economicpolicies and, indeed, the impacts of the global economy.The issues, however, go far beyond financialresources. They are rooted in ideas, public perceptions ofthese issues, and cultural values and understandings of howthe world works. Everyone thinks that they understandthese three issues; therefore, conventional wisdom developsand becomes the basis for public action. Unfortunately, thatconventional wisdom is not always correct and may, in fact,inhibit finding effective solutions. Indeed, it remains to beseen whether conventional wisdom itself is correctible byforceful public leadership and effective public education.This Global Report seeks to present an analytic frameworkand policy recommendations to address these problems.CONCLUDING REMARKSThis chapter has provided an overview of the three threats tourban safety and security that constitute the theme of thisreport. It is apparent from experiences in cities around theworld that some cities are able to stand up and respond tothese threats better than others. Chapter 2 will present aconceptual framework based on the two ideas of vulnerabilityand resilience, which are useful in explaining threats tourban safety and security and in developing public policyoptions for enhancing urban safety and security, respectively.Societies can build the needed resilience required toovercome crime and violence, insecurity of tenure and disasters.Some cities such as Medellin (Colombia), Daidema(Brazil), or New York (US) have demonstrated that crime andviolence can be reduced. Increased global recognition of thehuman right to secure tenure represents a large step forwardtowards reducing tenure insecurity. The success of grassrootsmovements in many countries, notably the SlumDwellers Federation, which started in India, and is nowactive in South Africa and the Philippines, among othercountries, shows that citizen action can play a critical role inthis process. Similarly, the experiences of countries afterdisasters demonstrate that knowledge and education canenhance preparedness. The experience of The Netherlandssince the flooding of 1953 shows that it is possible to anticipateflooding through building dikes and investing ininstitutional and societal learning. 86 Likewise, the responseof Kobe to the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake demonstrateshow rebuilding can provide the opportunity toachieve a much higher level of security through attention tobuilding methods and a stronger building code. 87 Cuba hasdeveloped effective procedures for quick evacuation ofHavana 88 and other urban areas in the face of repeated hurricanes.Women’s organizations in disaster-affected areas haveall demonstrated that they can respond to the disaster, butalso advance the cause of social and community reform. 89Each of these areas of risk and vulnerability also containwhat has been called ‘spaces of hope’. 90While perceptionand evidence can beobstacles to improvingpublicunderstanding,there are alsosignificant problemsin methods ofanalysisSocieties can buildthe neededresilience requiredto overcome crimeand violence,insecurity of tenureand disasters