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28Understanding Urban Safety and SecurityFigure 2.1Global warming andmeteorologicaldisastersSource: United NationsInternational Strategy forDisaster Reduction, DisasterStatistics,www.unisdr.org/disaster-statistics-occurence.pdfNumber of disasters in the world20015010050FloodWind stormDrought andrelated disastersSlides019701975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005The decliningeffectiveness ofgovernment andpublic authority isa potentiallydevastating result ofglobal environmentaltrendsTable 2.2Distribution of worldpopulation as afunction of distancefrom the nearestcoastlineSource: Gommes et al, 1998Kilimanjaro’s ice cloak is soon to disappear, thesummertime Arctic Ocean could be ice free bycentury’s end, 11,000-year-old shelves aroundAntarctica are breaking up over the course ofweeks, and glaciers there and in Greenlandhave begun galloping into the sea. And thereceding glaciers, at least, are surely driving upsea level and pushing shorelines inland… Risingseas would push half a billion people inland. 19This frightening prospect makes flooding in Mumbai or NewOrleans appear quite limited in impact and significance. Alarge share of the world’s total stock of wealth, includingfixed public assets such as infrastructure, private investmentsin production capacity and cultivation, not to speak ofthe heritage of cities themselves as the crucibles of civilization,are located in coastal areas (see Figure 2.2). The issueof sea-level rise therefore deserves special attention. Recentestimates show dramatic economic losses in countries asdiverse as Japan, Egypt and Poland, all in different ecologicalzones and climates, but all facing potential impacts onmillions of people and losses in the many billions of USdollars. 20In this context, these global environmental forcescompletely change the meaning of urban safety and security.Table 2.2 presents some of this data. One can wonder when‘the rich’ will begin to buy ‘safe’ inland locations and howsuch changes in investment will affect normal patterns ofurban life. Such change does not occur overnight; but oneDistance from Population Accumulated Accumulatedthe coast (km) (million) population (million) percentageUp to 30km 1147 1147 20.6>30 to 60km 480 1627 29.2>60 to 90km 327 1954 35>90 to 120km 251 2205 39.5Beyond 120km 3362 5567 100can imagine that a few major events could easily spark behaviourchanges on a worldwide level. Speculation about theimpacts of such changes is beyond the scope of this GlobalReport; but it deserves attention from researchers.■ Global uncertainty and weakening ofnational institutionsA third type of global factor is the increased uncertaintyarising from the interaction of global forces and the consequentweakening of national and local institutions to managerisks and reduce vulnerabilities. Uncertainty reduces thecapacity to plan and to prepare for change. When the probabilityof events does not depend upon the actions of theparty likely to be affected, or in this case national or localgovernments, it weakens the status and authority of governmentwhen it seeks to manage risks and reducevulnerabilities. The public at large can ask why they shouldaccept the advice of government if the latter does not haveeither better information about a probable event or anymeans to mitigate its impact. In fact, anticipation is the firststep towards mitigation and, therefore, anticipation doesreduce risks and vulnerabilities by removing the role ofsurprise and allowing the possibility of some degree ofpreparedness.The declining effectiveness of government and publicauthority is a potentially devastating result of global environmentaltrends. The constructive responses and solidarityamong victims of flooding in Mumbai in July 2005 may beinterpreted as socially and culturally responsible behaviourin the absence of effective action by the Maharashtra StateGovernment and the Municipal Corporation of Mumbai. Theopposite seems to have occurred in New Orleans as federal,state and local authorities were unable to protect the NewOrleans population, and particularly the poorest peopleamong them, following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. 21 In bothcities, a legacy of the disaster is growing scepticism aboutthe capacity of public institutions to solve problems. This caneasily become a self-fulfilling prophecy as public officials