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198Natural and human-made disastersBox 8.3 Multidisciplinary assessment of urban seismic risk, Bogotá City, ColombiaThe Holistic Vulnerability Index uses a novel methodology forincorporating social as well as physical indicators of vulnerability,and combining these with seismic hazard data to produce anassessment of urban seismic risk. The index has been applied to 19districts of Bogotá City in Colombia. Four variables are included inthe measurement of the physical vulnerability of buildings andpublic infrastructure:• damaged area in square kilometres;• mortality and number of injured;• ruptures to water mains, gas networks and power lines; and• number of telephone exchanges and electricity substationsaffected.Hazard is measured by combining data on the propensity of eachzone for accelerating seismic energy and on soil type influencingproneness to seismic amplification, susceptibility to liquefaction andlandslides. Social vulnerability is measured from the sum of threecompound indexes:Exposure: population exposed, density of population exposed,exposed areas, including built areas, industrial areas and areas undergovernment use (health, education, administration, etc.).Social fragility: areas of illegal or marginal human settlement,annual rate of mortality by natural causes, annual number of crimesper 1000 inhabitants, and level of unsatisfied basic needs.Resilience: number of hospital beds, number of medical professionals,area of space available for emergency housing, number ofemergency and rescue workers, including trained volunteers, overalldevelopment level, preparedness, and emergency planning asappraised by a relevant city authority.Results show the complexity and context specificity of processesleading to seismic risk. Those districts recording the highest levelsof calculated risk included the middle-income districts ofTesaquillo, Chapinero and Usaquen, as well as the low-incomedistricts of San Cristóbal, Usme and Ciudad Bolivar.The advantage of such an approach is that it presents multipleaspects of risk simultaneously to decision-makers. This can be apressure to put the social as well as the physical aspects of vulnerabilitycentre stage in integrated urban planning. The 2000 UrbanMaster Plan for Bogotá took the results of this model into consideration.Source: Carreño, 2007In even the richestcountries, there is alack comprehensivehazards databasesapproach is the Holistic Vulnerability Index, 12 calculated onlyin relation to seismic risk. It measures disaster risk as theprobability of a loss occurring as a consequence of a seismichazard with a defined magnitude over a given time. Itincludes indicators for physical and social vulnerability, thusdemonstrating to decision-makers the need for work on bothfronts. The index has been applied to various districts ofBogotá City (Colombia), and results were considered in thepreparation of the 2000 Urban Master Plan for Bogotá (seeBox 8.3).Assessing human-made hazard riskHuman-made hazard risk assessments tend to be driven by ahazards focus and employ GIS software. Vulnerability issometimes indicated through population distribution, whichreflects the limited availability of geo-referenced social data.However, as has been found with urban heat shocks, socialvariables affecting information flows and access to resourceswill influence individual exposure and susceptibilitythrough, for example, variable abilities to seek timelymedical assistance.Internet tools have the potential to greatly increasepublic access to geographical hazard and social data. Forexample, in the US, the Environmental Protection Agency, 13the Department of Housing and Urban Development 14 andthe New York Public Interest Research Group host internetresources that enable the mapping of hazardous facilities,public projects and Brownfield sites. These become powerfulrisk-mapping tools when combined with data from othersites that provides demographic and socio-economic characteristicsof the proximate populations. 15GIS mapping of technological/industrial hazard andsocial vulnerability is faced with a number of challenges. Ineven the richest countries, there is a lack of comprehensivehazards databases. In some countries, industrial hazard ishidden behind commercial secrecy. Where point source datafor hazards are available, modelling the geographic extent ofexposure and the characteristics of affected populations isproblematic. Developing models for hazards where there hasonly been limited experience of the health consequences ofexposure is difficult. In many instances, little is known of thelong-term health effects of exposure to chemicals that cancross generations. Advances in modelling and the use ofproxy data sources provide ways for technological improvement;but the underlying paucity of data is much harder toaddress without political will.Participatory risk assessmentsPerhaps the most extensive collection of methodologiescomes from participatory risk assessments. This includes avariety of approaches, all drawn from the tradition of participatoryapproaches. 16 Many international and nationalnon-governmental organizations (NGOs) have developedparticipatory methodologies that aim to provide a structuredway for local actors to reflect on the hazards,vulnerabilities and capacities influencing their lives.Examples include the International Federation of the RedCross and Red Crescent’s Vulnerability and CapacityAssessment, 17 as well as ActionAid’s ParticipatoryVulnerability Analysis. 18Impetus for promoting participatory approaches inrisk assessment has been provided by the Hyogo Framework