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220Natural and human-made disastersWorld RegionTraffic accidentmortality rates byworld region, 2002Source: WHO, 2004Pro-poor urbanpolicies need toconsider trafficaccidents as afactor that…can tiphouseholds intopoverty or collapseTable 9.2Motorization rates byHuman DevelopmentIndex (HDI)Notes: * Data is for 2003 ormost recent year available.Motor vehicles include cars,buses and freight vehicles, butdo not include two-wheelers.Population refers to mid-yearpopulation in the year forwhich data is available.Source: UNDP, 2006b; WorldBank, 2006cMortality per 100,000 individualsLow- and middle-High-incomeincome countriescountriesAfrica 28.3 –The Americas 16.2 14.8Asia (Southeast Asia) 18.6 –Asia (Eastern Mediterranean) 26.4 19.0Europe 17.4 11.0Western Pacific 18.5 12.0Table 9.1and Asia that have the highest mortality rates resulting fromtraffic accidents, with high-income countries in Europe andthe Western Pacific having the lowest mortality rates.Studies have shown that traffic accident fatality is high whengross domestic product (GDP) is low and then declines withcontinued GDP growth. 6For those countries where data is available, it is strikingthat mortality rates are much higher than the regionalaverages shown in Table 9.1. Some of the highest mortalityrates (deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles) worldwide occur inAfrican countries such as Ethiopia (195), Uganda (122) andMalawi (193). Two countries, South Africa and Nigeria,account for more than half of Africa’s road fatalities. 7 In thePeople’s Republic of China, despite huge investments toimprove road networks, the rapid development and increasingnumber of vehicles have substantially increased roadaccidents and loss of life. During the period of 2000 to2004, over 500,000 people were killed and around 2.6million injured in road accidents in the People’s Republic ofChina, equivalent to one fatality every five minutes, thehighest in the world. 8High rates of mortality are also found in some LatinAmerican countries (41.7 per 100,000 individuals in ElSalvador; 41 per 100,000 in the Dominican Republic; and25.6 per 100,000 in Brazil), as well as some countries inEurope (22.7 per 100,000 individuals in Latvia; 19.4 per100,000 in the Russian Federation; and 19.3 per 100,000 inLithuania) and Asia (21.9 per 100,000 individuals in theRepublic of Korea; 21 per 100,000 in Thailand; and 19 per100,000 in China). 9Mortality rates are high in low- and middle-incomecountries despite their relatively low levels of vehicle ownershipand use (see Table 9.2). For instance, for every 10,000vehicles in circulation, the average Latin American countryregisters around 18 traffic fatalities per year. In the US,Country Human Number of vehicles Number of vehiclesDevelopment (per 1000 persons), * (per 1000 persons),Index (HDI) 1990 2003High HDI Canada 0.950 605 577Germany 0.932 405 578Japan 0.949 469 582Poland 0.862 168 354Republic of Korea 0.912 79 304UK 0.940 400 442US 0.948 758 808Low HDI Ethiopia 0.371 1 2Kenya 0.491 12 11Swaziland 0.500 66 83Pakistan 0.539 6 8Uganda 0.502 2 5Canada, Japan and several European countries belonging tothe Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD), the average is only 2.4 fatalities per10,000 vehicles. 10 Africa’s global road fatality share is threetimes as large as its motor vehicle share. 11 The Asia–Pacificregion has only around 18 per cent of the world’s motorizedvehicle fleet, but is disproportionately affected by traffichazards, accounting for around 50 per cent of global roaddeaths. 12This provides a strong indication that the scale ofmotorization in a country or city’s transport system is not ofitself a sole indicator for, or a cause of, traffic accidents. Thehigher number of cars in richer countries means that potentialhazard is high; but through road traffic planning, theeducation of different road users and emergency responseteams, risk has been reduced, although it remains a significantchallenge. This observation clearly shows the potentialfor risk management to reduce loss from traffic accidents.Although a substantial increase in road traffic mortalitiesis expected over the next 20 years if current policies arenot adjusted, 13 these trends vary by region. In Europe andNorth America, mortality rates have been in decline sincethe 1960s. Elsewhere, rates have been on the increase, mostnotably in Latin America and the Caribbean and in theMiddle East and North Africa, with a slower increase for sub-Saharan Africa. By 2020, high-income countries areexpected to experience a 30 per cent decline in fatalitiesfrom traffic accidents, while low- and middle-incomecountries will record a phenomenal increase of 80 percent. 14 South Asia alone will experience a 144 per cent risein fatalities from traffic accidents by 2020.Economic impactsEconomic costs of traffic accidents are difficult to calculate,given that there are many indirect impacts to consider. TheWHO estimates that the total economic cost of trafficaccidents is 1 per cent of gross national product (GNP) forlow-income countries, 1.5 per cent in middle-incomecountries and 2 per cent in high-income countries. Low- andmiddle-income countries lose US$65 billion a year in trafficaccidents, more than they receive in development assistance.15 To put this in perspective, the annual averageestimated economic damage due to natural disasters overthe 1990s was US$62 billion. 16 The significance of trafficaccidents when taken in aggregate is thus very clear.Table 9.3 presents calculated economic costs of trafficaccidents in 1997 by continent. Road accidents cost US$65billion in developing and transitional countries, and US$453billion in highly motorized countries (considered equivalentto OECD countries), amounting to a crude estimated total ofUS$518 billion worldwide. 17 As the analysis uses 1997 lossdata, current losses can be expected to exceed these values.Pro-poor urban policies need to consider trafficaccidents as a factor that, like other hazards, can tip householdsinto poverty or collapse. The consequences of trafficaccidents extend far beyond the individuals concerned. Lossof an economically productive member of the family, andperhaps one in whom the family has invested valuable