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Security of tenure: Conditions and trends121other vulnerable groups; reduced investments in housingand distortions in the price of land and services; and anundermining of good governance and long-term planning.Moreover, reduced investments in housing may lead toreduced household and individual security in the home itselfas structures become more prone to illegal entry by criminals.Indeed, governments that allow (or encourage) levels oftenure security to decline, that tolerate (or actively support)mass forced evictions, that fail to hold public officialsaccountable for such violations of human rights, and thatplace unrealistic hopes on the private sector to satisfy thehousing needs of all income groups, including the poor,contribute towards the worsening of these circumstances.The result is even less tenure security and less social (andnational) security.If governments and global institutions are seriousabout security, then international security needs to be seenless as a question of military balances of power, unlawfulacts of military aggression and politics through the barrel ofthe gun, and more as questions revolving around security atthe level of the individual, the home and the neighbourhood.Such a perspective of security is grounded in humansecurity, human rights and – ultimately – security of tenure.If governments long for a secure world, they must realizethat without security of tenure and the many benefits that itcan bestow, such a vision is unlikely to ever emerge.SCALE AND IMPACTS OFTENURE INSECURITYWhile, as noted above, reliable and comparative data on thescale of tenure insecurity are globally non-existent, fewwould argue against the fact that the number of slumdwellers is growing, not declining. UN-Habitat has estimatedthat the total slum population in the world increased from715 million in 1990 to 913 million in 2001. And the numberof slum dwellers is projected to increase even further.Unless MDG 7 target 11 on improving the lives of at least100 million slum dwellers by 2020 is achieved, the numberof slum dwellers is projected to reach 1392 million by 2020(see Table 5.2). 17 In fact, if no firm and concrete action istaken, the number of slum dwellers may well reach 2 billionby 2030. 18 This dramatic increase in the global slum populationshould not come as a surprise to anyone, however.Nearly two decades ago, in 1989, a seminal work concluded:If present trends continue, we can expect tofind tens of millions more households living insquatter settlements or in very poor quality andovercrowded rented accommodation owned byhighly exploitative landlords. Tens of millionsmore households will be forcibly evicted fromtheir homes. Hundreds of millions more peoplewill build shelters on dangerous sites and withno alternative but to work in illegal or unstablejobs. The quality of many basic services (water,sanitation, waste disposal and healthcare) willdeteriorate still further and there will be a risein the number of diseases related to poor andcontaminated living environments, includingthose resulting from air pollution and toxicwastes. 19As indicated in Table 5.2, cities in developing countries arehosts to massive slum populations. The proportion of urbanpopulations living in slums is highest in sub-Saharan Africa(72 per cent) and Southern Asia (59 per cent). In somecountries of sub-Saharan Africa, more than 90 per cent ofthe urban population are slum dwellers. While circumstancesvary, a clear majority of those living in slums,squatter settlements, abandoned buildings and other inadequatehomes do not possess adequate levels of formal tenuresecurity, or access to basic services such as electricity andwater.Table 5.3 provides rough estimates of the scale ofurban tenure insecurity worldwide. While the data should betreated as indicative only, it does provide an approximationof the scale of various forms of tenure insecurity andregional variations. Table 5.3 indicates that more than onequarter of the world’s urban population experience variouslevels of tenure insecurity, although it should be noted thatthe level of insecurity varies considerably. For example,many of the renters in developing countries may well havequite high levels of tenure security compared to renters inthe slums of many developing countries. At the nationalReliable andcomparative data onthe scale of tenureinsecurity are …non-existentMore than onequarter of theworld’s urbanpopulationexperience variouslevels of tenureinsecurityTotal slum populationSlum population as a(millions)percentage of urban population1990 2001 2005 2010 2020 1990 2001World 715 913 998 1246 1392 31.3 31.2Developed regions 42 45 47 48 52 6.0 6.0Transitional countries* 19 19 19 19 18 10.3 10.3Developing regions 654 849 933 1051 1331 46.5 42.7Northern Africa 22 21 21 21 21 37.7 28.2Sub-Saharan Africa 101 166 199 250 393 72.3 71.9Latin America and the Caribbean 111 128 134 143 163 35.4 31.9East Asia 151 194 212 238 299 41.1 36.4Southern Asia 199 253 276 308 385 63.7 59.0Southeast Asia 49 57 60 64 73 36.8 28.0West Asia 22 30 33 38 50 26.4 25.7Oceania 0 0 1 1 1 24.5 24.1* Commonwealth of Independent StatesTable 5.2The urbanization ofpoverty: The growth ofslum populations(1990–2020)Source: UN-Habitat, 2006e,pp188, 190