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Urban crime and violence: Conditions and trends55the same period. EU city averages are significantly higher(2.28 per 100,000) compared to the matching countryhomicide rate average (1.59 per 100,000). High murderrates (near or above 5 per 100,000 individuals) are apparentfor cities in countries undergoing civil strife, such as Belfast(Northern Ireland) and in cities that are in the midst oftransitions between political and economic systems, such asTallinn (Estonia), Vilnius (Lithuania) and Moscow (Russia).The highest reported murder rate is in Washington, DC,which equals or exceeds rates in developing nations. Thiscity has a number of converging risk factors, including significantsocial and economic inequality, a high proportion ofimpoverished citizens and widespread availability of guns.While crime rates vary significantly within regions andcountries, over a recent five-year period, it has beenestimated that 60 per cent of all urban dwellers in developingcountries have been crime victims, with rates of 70 percent in parts of Latin America and Africa. 32 Crime andviolence are typically more severe in urban areas and arecompounded by their rapid growth, especially in developingand transitional nations. In Latin America, where 80 per centof the population is urban, the rapidly expanding metropolitanareas of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Mexico City, Lima andCaracas are responsible for over half of the homicidesreported in their respective countries. 33 The homicide ratein Rio de Janeiro has tripled since the 1970s, while the ratein São Paulo has quadrupled. In the Caribbean, Kingston,Jamaica’s capital, consistently accounts for the vast majorityof the nation’s murders. 34At the global level, discerning violent crime trends iscomplicated by the significant variability across regions (asseen above), within nations and between areas within cities.For example, as is evident in Figure 3.6, violent crime ratesfor some American cities, such as Washington, DC, and SanFrancisco, are widely divergent and Washington’s homiciderate is more comparable to that of Rio de Janeiro’s, whichwas about 45 per 100,000 in 2001. Tokyo’s and Rome’srates are about the same, although they are cultures andcontinents apart. 35Within cities, homicide rates vary significantly. In SãoPaulo, crude homicide rates in 2001 ranged from 1.2 per100,000 in the Jardim Paulista district to 115.8 per 100,000individuals in the Guaianazes district. 36 The reasons for suchvariations are subject to much debate, with rationalesvariously attributed to differences in local drug markets,policing strategies and contextual community cultural andsocial values.More recently, violent crimes, such as homicides andassaults, have been increasing in the US, particularly inmedium-sized cities of between 500,000 and 1 millionpeople. 37 Despite this recent upsurge in violent crime, overallcrime rates in North American cities had been generallydeclining. Large and rapidly growing cities in Asia and theMiddle East, which are constrained by a variety of formal andinformal forces, consistently report significantly lower crimerates than urban places elsewhere. These variable trends,admittedly based on imperfect statistics, suggest that whilecrime and violence may be predictable phenomena in citiesand regions, they are not necessarily their unalterable fates.Rate per 100,000 population2520151050AfricaThe AmericasFear of crime and violenceSoutheastAsiaEuropeCultures of fear of crime and violence are widespread, bothin the developed and developing world. Public opinionsurveys in the US and the UK repeatedly show that peoplerank crime among the top concerns that they have in everydaylife. It should be noted that fear of crime is differentfrom the perception of crime, which is the recognition andknowledge that crime occurs.These concerns are also found in developingcountries, as evidenced in Nairobi (Kenya), where surveyWashington, DC, USMoscow, RussiaTallinn, EstoniaVilnius, LithuaniaNew York, NY, USSan Francisco, CA, USBelfast, N. IrelandPrague, Czech Rep.Warsaw, PolandBratislava, SlovakiaAmsterdam, NetherlandsStockholm, SwedenVienna, AustriaBrussels, BelgiumAnkara, TurkeyLondon, UKWellington, New ZealandEU capital cities’ averageBudapest, HungaryParis, FranceHelsinki, FinlandBerlin, GermanyMadrid, SpainOslo, NorwayDublin, IrelandCopenhagen, DenmarkGeneva, SwitzerlandSydney, AustraliaLisbon, PortugalEdinburgh, ScotlandLjubljana, SloveniaTokyo, JapanRome, ItalyBerne, SwitzerlandOttawa, CanadaAthens and Piraeus, GreeceCanberra, AustraliaLefkosla, CyprusHomicideEasternMediterraneanSuicideWesternPacificFigure 3.5Homicide and suiciderates by World HealthOrganization region(2000)Source: Krug et al, 2002, p11Figure 3.6Recorded homicides inselected citiesSource: adapted from Barclay etal, 20030 10 20 30 40 50Average per year from 1999–2001 (per 100,000 individuals)