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350Enhancing Urban Safety and SecurityTABLE B.2continuedUrban populationRural populationEstimates and projections Rate of change Estimates and projections Rate of change(000) (%) (000) (%)2000 2010 2020 2030 2000– 2010– 2020– 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000– 2010– 2020–2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030TFYR Macedonia 11 1,304 1,479 1,595 1,645 1.26 0.75 0.31 705 567 462 382 -2.17 -2.06 -1.90Ukraine 32,979 30,401 28,406 26,361 -0.81 -0.68 -0.75 16,137 13,727 11,204 8,691 -1.62 -2.03 -2.54United Kingdom 52,423 54,549 56,932 59,621 0.40 0.43 0.46 6,247 5,968 5,559 5,073 -0.46 -0.71 -0.92LATIN AMERICA ANDTHE CARIBBEAN 394,212 473,561 546,342 608,968 1.83 1.43 1.09 128,717 125,210 120,613 113,409 -0.28 -0.37 -0.62Anguilla 11 13 15 16 1.53 1.21 0.80 — — — — .. .. ..Antigua and Barbuda 29 36 46 57 2.33 2.51 2.07 48 51 50 47 0.54 -0.13 -0.67Argentina 32,903 37,025 41,011 44,299 1.18 1.02 0.77 3,993 3,713 3,475 3,235 -0.73 -0.66 -0.71Aruba 43 48 53 59 1.19 0.88 1.04 49 55 56 53 1.12 0.11 -0.45Bahamas 268 315 357 394 1.63 1.26 0.98 34 29 28 26 -1.35 -0.56 -0.75Barbados 133 152 172 188 1.35 1.23 0.90 133 121 106 90 -0.98 -1.32 -1.67Belize 116 146 184 229 2.36 2.31 2.15 127 150 160 157 1.67 0.68 -0.22Bolivia 5,143 6,675 8,265 9,799 2.61 2.14 1.70 3,174 3,356 3,373 3,235 0.56 0.05 -0.42Brazil 141,159 171,757 196,182 214,603 1.96 1.33 0.90 32,699 26,740 23,012 20,902 -2.01 -1.50 -0.96British Virgin Islands 12 15 18 20 2.31 1.74 1.31 9 8 8 7 -0.33 -0.73 -0.96Cayman Islands 40 49 53 56 2.01 0.86 0.63 — — — — .. .. ..Chile 13,246 15,250 16,958 18,246 1.41 1.06 0.73 2,166 1,884 1,681 1,532 -1.39 -1.14 -0.93Colombia 29,989 36,308 42,528 48,298 1.91 1.58 1.27 12,131 12,622 12,518 11,855 0.40 -0.08 -0.54Costa Rica 2,318 3,001 3,656 4,277 2.58 1.97 1.57 1,611 1,664 1,621 1,518 0.33 -0.27 -0.66Cuba 8,410 8,512 8,578 8,648 0.12 0.08 0.08 2,714 2,867 2,853 2,534 0.55 -0.05 -1.19Dominica 55 62 70 77 1.15 1.27 0.93 22 21 20 18 -0.63 -0.69 -1.04Dominican Republic 5,160 6,710 8,130 9,303 2.63 1.92 1.35 3,105 2,812 2,546 2,322 -0.99 -0.99 -0.92Ecuador 7,420 9,255 11,199 13,004 2.21 1.91 1.49 4,885 4,937 4,826 4,516 0.10 -0.23 -0.66El Salvador 3,668 4,577 5,575 6,640 2.21 1.97 1.75 2,613 2,884 2,975 2,877 0.99 0.31 -0.33Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 3 3 3 3 1.36 0.72 0.31 0 0 0 0 -6.38 -4.01 -1.74French Guiana 123 160 200 241 2.58 2.24 1.87 41 49 54 55 1.90 0.94 0.14Grenada 31 34 43 57 0.86 2.37 2.74 70 76 83 84 0.83 0.91 0.07Guadeloupe 428 461 480 492 0.76 0.38 0.25 2 1 0 0 -9.23 -4.83 -1.55Guatemala 5,039 7,030 9,584 12,550 3.33 3.10 2.70 6,127 7,184 7,943 8,148 1.59 1.00 0.25Guyana 213 214 226 250 0.06 0.54 1.01 531 537 499 426 0.12 -0.74 -1.58Haiti 2,827 3,846 5,057 6,372 3.08 2.74 2.31 5,112 5,299 5,271 4,999 0.36 -0.05 -0.53Honduras 2,850 3,906 5,172 6,568 3.15 2.81 2.39 3,575 4,091 4,361 4,315 1.35 0.64 -0.11Jamaica 1,339 1,479 1,642 1,801 0.99 1.05 0.92 1,245 1,224 1,142 1,000 -0.17 -0.69 -1.33Martinique 378 394 398 393 0.41 0.11 -0.12 8 8 7 6 -0.64 -1.03 -1.32Mexico 74,761 87,588 99,803 110,260 1.58 1.31 1.00 25,327 25,683 24,849 22,961 0.14 -0.33 -0.79Montserrat 0 1 1 1 4.55 2.39 2.82 3 4 4 4 1.60 0.37 -0.21Netherlands Antilles 122 135 149 161 1.03 0.98 0.78 54 53 49 44 -0.14 -0.82 -1.12Nicaragua 2,836 3,697 4,677 5,660 2.65 2.35 1.91 2,122 2,370 2,502 2,456 1.10 0.54 -0.18Panama 1,941 2,624 3,233 3,752 3.02 2.09 1.49 1,009 884 794 736 -1.32 -1.08 -0.75Paraguay 3,027 4,232 5,593 7,012 3.35 2.79 2.26 2,443 2,650 2,748 2,735 0.81 0.36 -0.05Peru 18,575 22,158 26,128 30,060 1.76 1.65 1.40 7,378 7,906 8,121 7,871 0.69 0.27 -0.31Puerto Rico 3,630 4,010 4,218 4,343 1.00 0.51 0.29 205 49 23 19 -14.26 -7.59 -2.15Saint Kitts and Nevis 13 15 18 23 0.96 1.91 2.44 27 30 32 32 1.13 0.57 -0.17Saint Lucia 43 47 55 67 0.82 1.60 2.04 111 121 125 119 0.81 0.32 -0.44Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 52 58 66 72 1.23 1.21 0.93 64 64 59 51 -0.11 -0.71 -1.51Suriname 313 349 377 393 1.11 0.77 0.39 121 112 100 86 -0.75 -1.14 -1.54Trinidad and Tobago 139 184 244 316 2.78 2.82 2.62 1,146 1,140 1,102 1,016 -0.05 -0.34 -0.81Turks and Caicos Islands 8 13 15 18 4.13 1.80 1.81 11 15 16 15 3.44 0.21 -0.59United States Virgin Islands 103 106 105 101 0.34 -0.08 -0.47 8 5 4 3 -4.38 -3.07 -2.10Uruguay 3,053 3,309 3,523 3,694 0.81 0.63 0.47 289 266 244 222 -0.81 -0.89 -0.94Venezuela 22,245 27,601 32,279 36,094 2.16 1.57 1.12 2,172 1,475 1,171 1,082 -3.87 -2.31 -0.79NORTHERN AMERICA 249,242 284,289 317,346 346,918 1.32 1.10 0.89 65,725 61,773 57,654 53,160 -0.62 -0.69 -0.81Bermuda 63 65 66 66 0.33 0.13 0.00 — — — — .. .. ..Canada 24,366 27,179 29,990 32,942 1.09 0.98 0.94 6,323 6,501 6,450 6,110 0.28 -0.08 -0.54Greenland 46 49 51 53 0.58 0.53 0.39 10 9 8 7 -1.31 -1.30 -1.28Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 5 5 6 7 0.61 1.01 0.77 1 1 1 1 0.23 0.06 -0.61United States of America 224,763 256,991 287,232 313,851 1.34 1.11 0.89 59,391 55,262 51,195 47,043 -0.72 -0.76 -0.85OCEANIA 21,813 24,925 28,119 31,394 1.33 1.21 1.10 9,135 10,091 10,790 11,149 1.00 0.67 0.33American Samoa 51 67 81 94 2.60 1.92 1.56 6 5 4 4 -2.56 -1.34 -0.20Australia 12 16,624 18,892 21,135 23,183 1.28 1.12 0.92 2,448 2,309 2,182 2,055 -0.58 -0.56 -0.60Cook Islands 12 13 13 13 0.60 0.24 -0.21 7 5 4 3 -3.48 -2.67 -2.45Fiji 392 469 540 612 1.80 1.42 1.25 419 409 379 339 -0.23 -0.77 -1.11French Polynesia 124 142 165 196 1.35 1.56 1.67 112 133 142 137 1.66 0.68 -0.36Guam 145 173 197 219 1.76 1.32 1.06 11 10 9 9 -1.04 -0.73 -0.40Kiribati 39 56 76 96 3.75 2.99 2.39 51 53 53 51 0.33 -0.04 -0.30Marshall Islands 34 49 67 85 3.60 3.04 2.40 18 23 27 28 2.69 1.51 0.43Micronesia (Fed. States of) 24 26 29 35 0.75 1.32 1.67 83 88 88 80 0.56 -0.02 -0.92Nauru 12 14 16 17 1.72 0.93 0.65 — — — — .. .. ..New Caledonia 133 169 205 243 2.34 1.98 1.69 82 89 91 88 0.79 0.21 -0.31New Zealand 3,271 3,620 3,897 4,148 1.01 0.74 0.62 547 552 528 487 0.09 -0.44 -0.81Niue 1 1 1 1 1.15 2.41 1.95 1 1 1 1 -1.54 -0.36 -0.87Northern Mariana Islands 65 86 100 112 2.84 1.50 1.10 5 4 4 4 -1.00 -1.06 -0.44Palau 13 14 16 17 0.69 0.79 0.75 6 6 6 5 0.47 -0.19 -0.95Papua New Guinea 699 901 1,258 1,876 2.53 3.34 4.00 4,599 5,549 6,344 6,907 1.88 1.34 0.85Pitcairn — — — — .. .. .. 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 -1.09Samoa 39 44 51 63 1.29 1.51 1.99 139 145 139 126 0.43 -0.43 -0.93Solomon Islands 66 100 150 223 4.16 4.09 3.94 353 438 503 540 2.15 1.39 0.70
Data tables351TABLE B.2continuedUrban populationRural populationEstimates and projections Rate of change Estimates and projections Rate of change(000) (%) (000) (%)2000 2010 2020 2030 2000– 2010– 2020– 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000– 2010– 2020–2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030Tokelau — — — — .. .. .. 1 1 2 2 0.46 0.93 0.61Tonga 23 26 31 36 1.22 1.67 1.59 77 77 72 62 0.02 -0.72 -1.46Tuvalu 5 5 6 7 1.37 1.44 1.46 5 5 5 4 -0.39 -0.66 -0.97Vanuatu 42 59 85 119 3.55 3.58 3.40 150 172 189 194 1.40 0.89 0.29Wallis and Futuna Islands — — — — .. .. .. 15 17 19 22 1.10 1.46 1.09Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2006Notes:(1) Including the island of Mayotte.(2) Including Agalega, Rodrigues and Saint Brandon.(3) Including Ascension and Tristan da Cunha.(4) For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China.(5) As of 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.(6) As of 20 December 1999, Macao became a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.(7) Including the islands of Guernsey and Jersey.(8) Including Åland Islands.(9) Refers to the Vatican City State.(10) Including Svalbard and Jan Mayen islands.(11) The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.(12) Including Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.
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ENHANCING URBAN SAFETYAND SECURITY
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First published by Earthscan in the
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INTRODUCTIONEnhancing Urban Safety
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe preparation of
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xEnhancing Urban Safety and Securit
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xiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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xivEnhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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xviEnhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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xviiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Sec
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LIST OF FIGURES, BOXES ANDTABLESFIG
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xxiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Secu
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xxivEnhancing Urban Safety and Secu
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xxviEnhancing Urban Safety and Secu
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xxviiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Se
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xxxEnhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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xxxiiEnhancing Urban Safety and Sec
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4Understanding Urban Safety and Sec
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1CHAPTERCURRENT THREATS TO URBANSAF
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Current threats to urban safety and
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2CHAPTERVULNERABILITY, RISK ANDRESI
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Vulnerability, risk and resilience:
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46Urban crime and violenceBox II.1
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48Urban crime and violenceit has mu
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50Urban crime and violenceFormal an
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52Urban crime and violenceContact c
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54Urban crime and violencePer 100,0
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56Urban crime and violenceBurglary
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58Urban crime and violencePercentag
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60Urban crime and violenceFigure 3.
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62Urban crime and violenceTable 3.3
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64Urban crime and violenceYouth gan
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68Urban crime and violenceType of v
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70Urban crime and violenceFrom a pl
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72Urban crime and violenceOne viole
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74Urban crime and violenceHigh homi
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76Urban crime and violenceAbused ch
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78Urban crime and violenceGenerally
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82Urban crime and violenceporate cr
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4CHAPTERURBAN CRIME AND VIOLENCE:PO
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86Urban crime and violenceUN-Habita
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88Urban crime and violenceBox 4.2 T
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90Urban crime and violenceBox 4.4 T
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92Urban crime and violenceLegislati
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94Urban crime and violenceabove wha
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96Urban crime and violenceCampaigns
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98Urban crime and violenceAvailable
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100Urban crime and violenceBox 4.7
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102Urban crime and violenceIn some
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104Urban crime and violenceInitiati
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106Urban crime and violenceThe most
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108Urban crime and violenceVandersc
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112Security of tenureBox III.1 Secu
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5CHAPTERSECURITY OF TENURE:CONDITIO
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116Security of tenureTable 5.1A gen
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118Security of tenureFully legalDeg
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120Security of tenureBox 5.4 Securi
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122Security of tenureUrban tenurein
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124Security of tenureAt least 2 mil
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126Security of tenureMarket-basedev
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128Security of tenureBox 5.11 Urban
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130Security of tenureOperationMuram
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132Security of tenureControl of lan
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134Security of tenureBox 5.18 Secur
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136Security of tenureNOTES1 Habitat
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138Security of tenureBox 6.1 The Mi
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140Security of tenureIt would be fo
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142Security of tenureBox 6.7 Land t
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144Security of tenureBox 6.10 What
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146Security of tenureBox 6.12 Evict
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148Security of tenureBox 6.15 Const
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150Security of tenureBox 6.18 Viola
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152Security of tenureThe GlobalCamp
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154Security of tenureBox 6.24 Land-
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156Security of tenureThe state is o
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158Security of tenureHousing rights
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Over the last three decades, natura
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Introduction165One of the key trend
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7CHAPTERDISASTER RISK: CONDITIONS,T
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Disaster risk: Conditions, trends a
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8CHAPTERPOLICY RESPONSES TODISASTER
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Policy responses to disaster risk19
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220Natural and human-made disasters
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236Towards safer and more secure ci
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11CHAPTERENHANCING TENURE SECURITYA
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276Enhancing Urban Safety and Secur
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12CHAPTERMITIGATING THE IMPACTS OFD
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Page 334: 300Towards safer and more secure ci
Page 338 and 339: 304Summary of case studiesSince its
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Page 342 and 343: 308Summary of case studiestions wit
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Page 348 and 349: 314Summary of case studiespurposes.
Page 350 and 351: 316Summary of case studiesThese eff
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Page 358 and 359: 324Summary of case studiesProlonged
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Page 364 and 365: 330Statistical annexIslands, Micron
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Page 368 and 369: 334Statistical annexPopulation, urb
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410TABLE C.7continuedEnhancing Urba
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INDEXACHR (Asian Coalition for Hous
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Index435security of tenure 134confl
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Index437domestic abuse see intimate
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Index439hazard management 169hazard
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Index441Kosovo, security of tenure
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Index443participation 38, 296-299pa
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Index445individual 34-35municipal f
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Index447gun ownership 78Homeless Pe
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