Download the file - United Nations Rule of Law

70Urban crime and violenceFrom a planning andpublic policystandpoint, then,where crimes occurand how places aredesigned andmanaged are at leastas important as whothe perpetrators areCrime and violenceare stronglyassociated with thegrowth andproportion of youthfulpopulations and,especially, youngmalesEvidence also suggests that permeable street layoutsthat encourage vehicular traffic flows across the urban fabrictend to enhance certain crime opportunities since morepotential offenders will see more potential targets. This issaid by some to increase the cost of policing. 159 On the onehand, access and escape routes for offenders are facilitatedby gridiron-based patterns, reducing the risk of being caught,as well as facilitating the efforts to commit robberies andburglaries. 160 On the other hand, permeable street patternsknit cities together in the face of increasingly privatizedgated communities and tend to reduce dependence upon theautomobile, especially when urban mass transit isutilized. 161 While the evidence is not conclusive and themechanisms are imperfectly understood, studies have linkedthese elements with the routine movement, behaviour andinteractions of offenders and targets in cities. 162From a planning and public policy standpoint, then,where crimes occur and how places are designed andmanaged are at least as important as who the perpetratorsare. This is so because crime and violence tends to reoccurin relatively limited numbers of places in cities that provideniches for offending. Moreover, these places are generallyknown to citizens and police, and occurrences are thereforereasonably predictable. Most other places are reasonablysafe. Chapter 4 identifies some of the approaches that citiesacross the world have taken in integrating place-based crimereduction strategies within existing or new planning andpublic policy processes in attempting to grapple with thesechallenges.Demographics: Youthful population growthA wealth of international data suggests that crime andviolence are strongly associated with the growth andproportion of youthful populations and, especially, youngmales. Cross-national research using data on 44 countriesfrom 1950 to 2000 reveals that ‘the percentage of youngpeople in the populations and prosperity are jointly moreimportant in explaining the variability of homicide’. 163 Thenumber of children under 16 years per area (child density)has been noted as the single most important variable inexplaining vandalism in certain housing estates in theUK. 164 In Nairobi (Kenya), where bank robbery, violent carrobbery, house breaking, and street muggings and snatchingare the main criminal activities, a distinctive attribute of theperpetrators is their youthfulness – criminals in their teensand 20s. 165For people between the ages of 14 and 44 years old,violence has been identified as a major cause of death, 166and in some distressed communities it is the primary causeof mortality of young people. This is a particularly salientissue for young males. Chapter 1 noted, for example, thatviolence was among the highest causes of death amongAfrican–American males in the US; the homicide death ratefor African–American males aged 15 to 24 is 12 times therate for white males in the same age category and twice therate for Hispanic males. 167 The firearm-related death rate forAfrican–American males aged 15 to 19 is four times the ratefor white males in the same category. 168 Age and gender arefundamental factors in determining vulnerability to smallarms violence, generally. These risk factors are particularlysignificant when comparing firearms-related homicidesamong nations as shown in Figure 3.20.Across countries, Small Arms Survey and WHO datareport that males aged 15 to 29 account for about half of allfirearm-related homicides and, as Figure 3.20 indicates,rates tends to be much higher for them than for the generalpopulation in the top five selected nations. This trend isconsistent over time. The Small Arms Survey estimates thetotal number of annual global deaths from gun-relatedhomicides for men aged 15 to 29 as falling between 70,000and 100,000. 169Other factors associated with youth crimeYouth crime and violence rates are associated with otherfactors, such as level of policing, conviction and imprisonmentrates, drug cultures and a host of situational elementsthat condition people, especially young men, to theirsurrounding world. For example, the Small Arms Surveyconcludes that youth demographics alone are insufficient inexplaining the variability of rates of violence amongnations. 170 It cited a US study suggesting that more andbetter trained police, increased prison populations, theebbing crack epidemic and the effects of legalized abortionshave had more impact on crime rates than youthful populations.171 For young males, local situational factors related tomasculine identity, achievement of status, prestige and socialand economic empowerment are important elements inexplaining the variability of violent crime rates around theworld. 172■ Youth unemploymentIn addition to the risk factors described above, unemploymentis a fundamental issue related to crime and violencerates among young people. The World Bank estimates that74 million people between the ages of 15 and 24 areunemployed, which accounts for 41 per cent of allunemployed persons. 173 In connecting these dots, mostresearch suggests that unemployed youths are disproportionatelymore likely to be perpetrators, as well as victims, ofcrime and violence. Unemployment, and especially longtermunemployment, undermines human capital so thatwork abilities and motivations ‘atrophy’. Unemployment isalso correlated with other aspects of social disadvantage,such as low socio-economic status, family dysfunction andprior criminal history. In this sense, the link betweenemployment, youth and criminal behaviour is part of aprocess and a constellation of issues rather than the mark ona line as an incident or event. 174Few factors have affected the prospects of youngpeople more than the globalization of employment markets.A recent address to the Goethe-Institut in Johannesburgclaimed that ‘supply shock’ has affected world labourmarkets, and especially youthful job-seekers, as millions ofnew workers have been added to world job markets due tothe influx of new labour from nations of the former SovietUnion, the restructuring of China’s economy, India’s