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Disaster risk: Conditions, trends and impacts175Deaths per million population (annual mean)10005001005010510.50.10.050.010.005Guinea BissauNorwaySt Kitts and NevisSeychellesBahamasMauritiusTrinidad & TobagoCyprusBulgariaNetherlandsIraqVanuatuCanadaGermanySwazilandDjiboutiUnitedKingdomNigeriaHondurasMexicoJapanUnited StatesMozambiqueArmeniaVenezuelaIranIndiaChinaDP KoreaEthiopiaSudanBangladeshLow human developmentMedium human developmentHigh human developmentFigure 7.5National developmentstatus and naturaldisaster mortality(1980–2000)Source: UNDP, 2004Note: HDI ranking forAfghanistan, DemocraticPeople’s Republic of Korea,Iraq, Liberia and Yugoslavia arefrom UNDP HumanDevelopment report 1996, allothers from UNDP HumanDevelopment Report 2002.0.0010.050.10.5151050100Deaths (annual mean)5001000500010,00050,000100,000The UNDP also developed the Disaster Risk Index, apioneer tool for assessing variations in disaster vulnerabilityaccording to levels of development. The index tests 24 socioeconomicvariables against disaster mortality forearthquakes, flooding and windstorm at the national level toidentify those variables that most explained patterns of loss.For all hazard types, exposure of human populations tohazard-prone places was found to be statistically associatedwith mortality. Urban growth was also found to be statisticallyassociated with risk of death from earthquakes. Thiswork provides statistical support for the large amount ofobservational data that connects rapid urban growth withdisaster risk, and, in particular, with losses associated withearthquakes. Disaster risks and impacts are also differentiatedby levels of development and investments in riskreduction at the city level.City-level comparisons of disaster riskThere have been few studies of the global distribution ofdisaster risk for individual cities. Munich Re’s NaturalHazards Risk Index for Megacities is a rare example (seeTable 7.5). 15 The Natural Hazards Risk Index includes 50participating cities and is primarily designed to compareinsurance risk potential. With this caveat in mind, the indexdatabase is applied here to build up a picture of disaster riskat the city level.One achievement of the Natural Hazards Risk Index isits multi-hazard approach, covering earthquake, windstorm,flood, volcanic eruption, bush fires and winter damage(frost). Reflecting Munich Re’s business focus, the conceptualizationand measurement of vulnerability is restricted tobuilt assets, with an additional measure of financialexposure. The multi-hazard approach is enabled throughindividual assessments of vulnerability for each hazard type(for building structures and construction and planningregulations), which are then combined with an overallassessment of the general quality of construction and buildingdensity in the city to arrive at a risk index. There is someconcern over the quality of vulnerability data available forcities; but Munich Re considers the results to be plausibleand reflective of expert opinion on city vulnerability and risk.Using Munich Re’s methodology, results show thatgreatest risk has accumulated in the cities of richercountries. Only one megacity from a non-industrial country,Manila, is in the top ten when cities are ordered by the riskindex. 16 With a view to supporting decision-making withinthe insurance sector, the Natural Hazards Risk Index understandablyidentifies high exposure in cities with largephysical assets and commercial interests. Hence, Tokyo, SanFrancisco and Los Angeles have the highest Natural HazardsRisk Index values.From a human settlements perspective, Munich Re’sNatural Hazards Risk Index is less instructive than the basedata held in Table 7.5. When considering the vulnerability ofcities in terms of the sum of different types of natural hazardexposure, high risk becomes associated with Manila, Tokyo,Kolkata, Osaka–Kobe–Kyoto, Jakarta and Dhaka, all cities inexcess of 10 million inhabitants and with high exposure to atleast two different kinds of natural hazard. There are somecounterintuitive results. For example, San Francisco appearslow on the list, despite high earthquake exposure, becauseof low exposure to other hazard types.Munich Re’s data is also useful for identifying thosecities where a large natural disaster is most likely to impactnegatively upon the national economy. Dhaka, with 60 percent of national GDP produced within the city, and with highexposure to earthquakes, tropical storms and storm surges,is a strong candidate for a city whose risk has national consequences.The impact of disaster is further differentiated accordingto the development paths and levels of disasterThe impact ofdisaster is …differentiatedaccording to thedevelopment pathsand levels of disasterpreparedness ofindividual cities