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178Natural and human-made disastersNatural hazard Primary hazard Secondary hazardCyclone Strong winds, heavy seas Flood and sea surge, landslide, water pollution,chemical releaseFlood Flooding Water pollution, landslide, erosion, chemical releaseTsunami Flooding Water pollution, landslide, erosion, deposition,chemical releaseEarthquake Ground motion, fault rupture Soil liquefaction, fire, flood, landslide, tsunami, waterpollution, explosion, chemical releaseLandslide Ground failure Flooding following river damming, water pollution,debris flowVolcano Lava flow, pyroclastic flow, ash fall, Fire, air pollution, tsunami, water pollution, groundgas releasesubsidence, explosion, chemical releaseTable 7.6Primary and secondaryhazardsSource: Institute of CivilEngineers, 1999The potential forfeedback betweennatural and humanmadehazards inlarge cities presentsthe scenario for adisaster on anunprecedented scalePowerful players canmove indirecteconomic lossesaround the urbaneconomydiversity can lead to initial ‘primary’ natural hazards triggering‘secondary’ hazards (see Table 7.6). In many cases,secondary hazards can be as devastating as the primaryhazard (or even more). Warnings of this potential includeKobe (Japan) in 1995 and San Francisco (US) in 1906, whereearthquakes were followed by urban fires.Human-made hazards triggered by the impacts ofnatural disasters are called Natech events. There is littlesystematically held data on the vulnerability of industrialfacilities to natural hazards since assessments are undertakenprivately and often considered too sensitive for publicaccess. There is also little recording of Natech incidents, andeven less data on near misses. Again, this information isoften held privately and is not easily accessible for analysis.The seriousness of the threat posed by Natech events inurban contexts can be seen by the following list of eventstriggered by the 1999 Marmara earthquake in Turkey: 23• leakage of 6.5 million kilograms of toxic acrylonitrile –as a result, contaminating air, soil, water and threateningresidential areas;• the intentional air release of 200,000 kilograms ofammonia gas to avoid explosion;• the release of 1.2 million kilograms of cryogenic liquidoxygen caused by a structural failure;• three large fires in Turkey’s largest oil refinery, consumingmore than 180,000 cubic metres of fuel;• a release of liquefied petroleum gas, killing two truckdrivers.Human-made hazards can also lead to unexpected secondaryhazards, potentially turning minor incidents into majorevents. On 10 August 1983, a 30 centimetre diameter watermain ruptured in New York’s Garment District. Water floodedan underground electricity sub-station, causing a fire. The firewas too intense for fire fighters to approach it directly. Theblaze ignited the roof of a 25-storey building and took 16hours to extinguish. Power was not restored for five days. Theresulting blackouts hit 1.9 square kilometres of the GarmentDistrict, disrupting telephones and an international marketweek being hosted in the Garment District at the time. Thecascading events started by this minor incident causeddisruption and loss in increasingly complex systems.Estimated losses were in the tens of millions of dollars. 24The potential for feedback between natural andhuman-made hazards in large cities presents the scenario fora disaster on an unprecedented scale. The economic impactsof such a disaster in a city of regional or global importancecould resonate around the world’s financial system, withcatastrophic consequences worldwide.Ecological damage and the impacts ofrecoveryUrban disaster impacts can be significantly compounded byenvironmental damage, resulting in the loss of ecosystemstability. Perhaps most important is the potential for disasterto result in the pollution of groundwater. Salt water intrusionfollowing storm surges, tsunami and coastal flooding, orthe pollution of groundwater from sewerage, petrol andhazardous chemicals, can render aquifers unsafe forprolonged periods. This was the case in Banda Aceh followingthe Indian Ocean Tsunami. 25Disaster impact assessments seldom include damagescaused in the process of disaster response and recovery. Thisis a serious omission. A recent evaluation has suggested thatthe ecological costs of cleanup and reconstruction followingthe Indian Ocean Tsunami will compete with or even exceedenvironmental losses caused by the wave. 26 In the wake oftyphoon Tokage, which hit Japan from 19 to 21 September2004, 44,780 tonnes of waste were produced by the city ofToyooka, composed mainly of forest debris and householdgoods. Waste treatment took over four months, at anestimated cost of US$20 million – a significant financialburden on the budget of a small city. 27 The use of debris asrecycled material in reconstruction is commonplace in localreconstruction efforts, but rare in large contracted reconstructionwork.An account of the Great Hanshin earthquake that hitKobe City in 1995 concludes that the volume of dioxinsreleased into the atmosphere through the incineration of 2million tonnes of waste equalled the amount generated bythe 1976 industrial disaster in Seveso (Italy), effectivelycausing a human-made disaster. Other environmentalimpacts included the scattering of asbestos and concreteparticles during demolitions, improper lining of landfills usedfor hazardous waste, use of tetrachloroethylene, whichcaused pollution of soil and groundwater, and a missedopportunity to recycle waste. 28Economic effects of disastersThe following discussion focuses on the economic effects ofdisasters. The economic sectors exposed to individual disastertypes and the role of land markets are discussed in turn.■ Economic production and infrastructureThe economic costs of natural and human-made disastersover the past few decades have been phenomenal. Economiclosses from natural disasters, for instance, have increased 15-fold since the 1950s. 29 In a matter of two decades between1974 and 2003, economic damages worth US$1.38 trillionwere caused worldwide by natural disasters. In 2006,economic losses from natural disasters amounted to US$48billion, while human-made disasters triggered economic