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Disaster risk: Conditions, trends and impacts177preparedness of individual cities. This is evident whencomparing the contrasting cases of Kobe (Japan) (hit by a 7.2Richter magnitude earthquake in 1995) and Marmara(Turkey) (hit by a 7.4 Richter magnitude earthquake in1999). The Kobe (or Great Hanshin) earthquake was amongthe worst disasters to have befallen modern Japan since itclaimed 6433 lives. The Marmara earthquake was similarlycatastrophic; but with 18,000 lives lost, was three times asdeadly as the Kobe earthquake. 17 In Kobe, strong engineeringstandards reduced losses; but a lack of planning for socialsystems to identify vulnerable groups and help in response,relief and reconstruction compounded losses. In Marmara,decades of ineffective building and planning regulationmeant many modern buildings were not adequately resistantto earthquakes, and accumulated risk translated into highhuman loss. As in Kobe, failure in social planning also underminedresponse and reconstruction. The Tangshanearthquake in China in 1976 similarly illustrates how differentialvulnerability shapes loss in different humansettlements (see Box 7.4).DISASTER IMPACTSThis section differentiates between and discusses the mainimpacts of disasters. The capacity for disaster impacts tocause knock-on consequences and additional risks throughsecondary human-made disasters and the ecological impactsin the city is also examined.Although the review of natural and human-madedisasters goes some way in indicating their destructivepower, it can only show tip-of-the-iceberg losses. Gaps indata and contradictory statements make comprehensiveassessment of disaster impacts difficult. Even assessments ofdisaster incidence, although made easier by global media, arenot easily undertaken at the global scale, where there is nostandard system for verifying local reports.Systematic gaps in disaster data collection and presentationmean that loss is underestimated in three differentways:• Psychological and livelihood impacts are seldomrecorded, with the majority of disaster impact datafocusing on mortality and economic loss. 18• Macro-economic loss estimates cannot easily capturethe secondary and knock-on consequences of disasterfor economic production and trade.• Disasters affecting small urban settlements and smallscaledisasters in large cities are often overlooked,despite evidence suggesting that, in aggregate, smallscaledisasters may be associated with at least as muchsuffering and loss as the large-scale disasters in citiesthat make front page news. 19At a minimum, psychological trauma, livelihood losses andlosses to productive infrastructure should be included inmeasuring the full impact of disasters.Box 7.4 The Great Tangshan earthquake, ChinaThe most destructive earthquake of the past 400 years occurred in Tangshan (China) in 1976.The magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred in the early morning while the majority of the over1 million residents slept and lasted 14 to 16 seconds. Later in the day, the city was furtherparalysed by an aftershock with a magnitude of 7.1. The official death toll published by theChinese government was about 240,000. More recent estimates place the total for casualties atover 0.5 million.While nearly 50 per cent of the population of the city of Tangshan died during theearthquake, the neighbouring County of Qinglong had only one death out of 470,000 residents.Scientists from the State Seismological Bureau identified six main factors that contributed tothe unprecedented destructiveness of the Tangshan earthquake, including high populationdensity, existence of few earthquake-resistant buildings, occurrence of shock while people weresleeping followed by a strong aftershock later, paralysis of critical infrastructures and thegeological conditions under the city. 20 Yet, the disparity between the death toll in Tangshan andQinglong cannot be accounted for by these factors alone since both counties experiencedsimilar vulnerabilities. The divergence in the death toll between Qinglong and Tangshan comesfrom an additional seventh factor: the difference in earthquake preparedness in the two areas.Tanghsan’s over-reliance on scientific monitoring of seismic activity for nationalpreparedness partly contributed to the massive loss of life during the 1976 earthquake. Twoyears earlier, a report by the Chinese Academy of Science had advised greater preparednessand monitoring in North China. During the following two years, Qinglong County increased thenumber of earthquake monitoring stations and intensified public education using pamphlets,films, posters, drills and community discussions, far beyond those reported to have been undertakenin Tangshan. Qinglong’s successful disaster mitigation was a best-case outcome of thecoordination between public administrators, scientists and the public.Source: Pottier et al, 2007Direct and systemic impacts of disasterDisaster impacts can be classified as either direct orsystemic. Direct impacts include damages directly attributableto the disaster, including lives lost and injuries andphysical damage to infrastructure and buildings. Direct (andother) losses can also be caused by knock-on human-made ornatural disasters. For example, an earthquake can triggerchemical fires or liquefaction. If uncontained, direct impactscan be magnified through failures in critical infrastructureand services in the city, leading to systemic impacts such asoutbreaks of disease, social violence and lack of access toelectricity, potable water or food. For instance, a review ofhealth service infrastructure in Latin America and theCaribbean found that around half of all hospitals are sited inhigh-risk areas. Perhaps not surprisingly, this report alsofound that over the 1980s and 1990s, 100 hospitals and 650health centres have been destroyed in disasters. This is alittle over 5 per cent of all hospitals in this region. 21 In turn,such disruptions can lead to instabilities in the politicaleconomy of the city and undermine economic development.Systemic loss can further be differentiated intoindirect losses and secondary effects. Indirect losses(sometimes called flow losses) are the costs of goods thatwill not be produced and services that will not be providedbecause of a disaster. Secondary effects are generated bymacro-economic distortions. 22Urban areas are characterized by great diversity inland use as well as environmental variability (e.g. in slopeangle and direction, soil properties and land altitude). ThisGaps in data …make comprehensiveassessment ofdisaster impactsdifficult