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186Natural and human-made disastersClimate change hasfar reaching consequencesfor theincidence andimpacts of disastersin cities… if sea levels riseby just one metre,many coastal megacities with populationsof more than10 million people …will be under threatSlums are characterizedby inadequateand insecure livingconditions thatgenerate hazard…tating fires. In São Paulo in 1974, 189 people died in a fire ina 25-storey building. 66 The close proximity of residential,commercial and industrial land uses in a city can generatenew cocktails of hazard that require multi-risk management.Calcutta and Baroda are just two cities where the closeproximity of manufacturing, hazardous materials storage andresidential areas has been a cause for concern. 67 The growthof slums whose residents’ livelihoods are tied to solid wastedumps is a similarly common cause of hazard in large citiessuch as Manila, where 300 people were killed by a landslidein the city’s Patayas dump. 68■ The impact of climate changeClimate change has far reaching consequences for theincidence and impacts of disasters in cities. Cities are particularlyvulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as this iswhere much of the population growth over the next twodecades will take place and where a large and growingproportion of those most at risk from climate changereside. 69Rising global temperatures and the resultant changesin weather patterns and sea levels have direct impacts oncities. In particular, cities located along the world’s coastlineswill face an increased number of extreme weatherevents such as tropical cyclones, flooding and heat waves. 70There has been a 50 per cent rise in extreme weather eventsassociated with climate change from the 1950s to the1990s, and the location of major urban centres in coastalareas exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards is a significantrisk factor: 21 of the 33 cities which are projected tohave a population of 8 million or more by 2015 are located invulnerable coastal zones and are increasingly vulnerable tosea-level rise. 71 Around 40 per cent of the world’s populationlives less than 100 kilometres from the coast, withinreach of severe coastal storms. In effect, close to 100 millionpeople around the world live less than 1 metre above sealevel. Furthermore, recent research shows that 13 per centof the world’s urban population lives in low elevation coastalzones, defined as less than 10 meters above sea level. 72Thus, if sea levels rise by just 1 metre, many coastalmegacities with populations of more than 10 million people,such as Rio de Janeiro, New York, Mumbai, Dhaka, Tokyo,Lagos and Cairo will be under threat. Indeed, several projectionshave indicated that sea levels are expected to rise by 8to 88 centimetres during the 21st century due to climatechange. 73Climate change also has less dramatic and directeffects on cities. In sub-Saharan Africa, climate change andthe consequent extreme climatic variations is a key factorwhich causes rural populations to migrate to urban areas,thereby fuelling rapid and often uncontrolled urbangrowth. 74 In turn, this exacerbates other disaster risk factorssuch as the spread of settlements into easily accessible yethazardous locations and unsafe building practices.While cities remain vulnerable to the effects ofclimate change, they are also key contributors to globalwarming. Cities are responsible for 80 per cent of the carbonemissions that cause climate change through energy generation,vehicles, industry and the burning of fossil fuels andbiomass in household and industrial energy consumption. 75Levels of greenhouse gas emissions are higher in many citiesof developed countries than in developing country cities. Forinstance, emissions from cities in North America andAustralia are often 25 to 30 times higher than those of citiesin low-income countries. 76■ The vulnerability of urban slumsSome 998 million people lived in urban slums in 2006, and ifcurrent trends continue, it is predicted that some 1.4 billionwill live in slums by 2020. 77 It is not unusual for the majorityof urban residents in cities to be excluded from the formalhousing market. In Manila, informal settlements at risk tocoastal flooding make up 35 per cent of the population; inBogota, 60 per cent of the population live on steep slopessubject to landslides; and in Calcutta, 66 per cent of thepopulation live in squatter settlements at risk from floodingand cyclones. 78Slums are characterized by inadequate and insecureliving conditions that generate hazard; but they are alsohome to many people with few resources and, thus, highvulnerability. At an individual and household level, vulnerabilityto natural and human-made hazard is shaped by thekinds of physical, economic, social and human capital assetsthat people can command. Capacity to increase, protect ordiversify an asset profile is largely determined by cultural,administrative and legal institutions and opportunities, suchas security of tenure, access to markets, customary hospitalityor the effectiveness of the rule of law. Many people inslums have fewer assets and supporting institutions thanthose living in formalized residential areas and are consequentlyhighly vulnerable to harm from natural andhuman-made hazards, as well as from other risks associatedwith crime, violence and insecurity of tenure. Box 7.10describes such risk conditions for those living in one of Riode Janerio’s slums.The most important physical asset for the urban pooris housing. Housing provides personal security, but can alsobe a livelihood resource if it is the locus of home-basedenterprises. Those with no home at all are perhaps the mostvulnerable. During Hurricane Mitch in 1998, a disproportionatenumber of the victims were street children. 79 Forthose with homes, lack of secure tenure has many consequencesfor their quality of life. 80Lack of secure tenure, discussed in greater detail inPart III of this Global Report, reduces people’s willingness toupgrade and therefore mitigate local environmental hazard.Renters as well as those living in squatter settlements are atrisk from eviction, generating uncertainty before disasterand often resulting in homelessness post-disaster due tocompeting higher-value land uses. It is not unusual for disastersto be followed by the redevelopment of inner-citylow-income rental or squatter areas during reconstruction,often (and famously, in the case of Mexico City) withwidespread protest.When people are excluded from the formal housingmarket through poverty, they are forced to live in places ofrisk. People often choose to face environmental hazards andincrease their chances of earning a living than live in a more