ICRISAT Archival Report 2006 - The seedlings of success in the ...

Based on the recommendation of the previous socio-economic CCER for ICRISAT to strengthen its strategic
research and to continue to scan and monitor changes in the wider SAT environment, ICRISAT in collaboration
with IFPRI has initiated a joint project to assess the alternative futures for SAT agriculture.
Objectives: Examine detailed scenarios, and project plausible futures for dryland agriculture and the potential
impacts that global economic and environmental changes will have on dryland agriculture.
Methodology: The extended version of the global food and water policy modeling framework of IMPACT-
WATER is being used to explore the future outlooks for dryland crops and gain useful foresights about
alternative adaptation and investment strategies. The model explicitly introduces dryland crops (sorghum,
millets, chickpea, pigeonpea and groundnut) along with a complete set of other crop and livestock commodities
into the global food and water models which allows a more realistic simulation of cross-commodity price and
income effects. In response to certain policy scenarios, the model allows supply, demand for different uses
(food, feed, and other), and prices to be determined within each country and regional sub-models and linked at
the global level through trade. The model also projects area, production and yield trends for each country, subregion
and at the global level.
Main Findings & Policy Implications:
Sorghum: When the historical trends over the last four decades are examined, the area of this crop has been
declining globally but increasing slowly in all sub-regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and North Africa and
West Asia (WANA). The global area of sorghum declined from 50 million ha in the late 1960s to about 44
million ha in the recent past (2003-2005). The harvested area declined gradually in South Asia, North America,
and South America. Despite the global decline in area cultivated, production of sorghum has been growing over
the last four decades. Global production has increased from 40 million t in the early 1960s to about 58 million t
during the last three years (2003-05). Yields in China for example have increased from less than 1 t/ha to over 4
t/ha. Unfortunately, no such transformation has taken place in other developing regions (SSA, South Asia and
WANA). Yields in these areas remain very low (less than 1 t/ha) and generally stagnated or even declined in
some areas. While a slight positive trend is evident in South Asia (since the late 1980s) and SSA (since the late
1990s), sorghum yields declined in the WANA region. The positive yield growth rates for South Asia and SSA
indicate that new varieties (including hybrids in Asia) are beginning to have a visible effect on production. The
low yields in the two regions however mean that much more needs to be done in making sorghum production in
these areas economically attractive to small producers. The IMPACT projections under the business-as-usual
scenario to 2025 (compared to the 2000 baseline) indicate that similar trends would continue globally. Sorghum
area is projected to increase in the ASARECA regions (ECA) from 8 to 10 million ha, in the SADC region from
about 0.85 to 1.12 million ha, in Western and Central Africa (WCA) from about 13 to 16.5 million ha, and in
South Asia decline from 10.3 million to about 8.5 million ha.
Millets: The overall trend in area of millets is similar to that of sorghum. The harvested area declined gradually
in all regions except in SSA and WANA, which explains the decline in the global area of the crop. The global
area declined from 43 million ha in the early 1960s to about 35 million ha in the last three years (2003-2005).
The area of the crop declined in South Asia, China and transition economies (Ukraine and Russia). Despite the
increase in production in the 1960s from 25 million to over 30 million t, the overall pattern in global production
has also largely stagnated around 27 million t since the early 1970s, indicating that the declining area has not
been offset by growth in yields in the major growing regions. Millet yields in China have doubled (from about 1
t/ha to 2 t/ha). Yields also doubled in South Asia where it started from a low base of 0.4 t/ha to about 0.8 t/ha.
The lowest increase comes from SSA which accounts for over half of the global crop area - yields have
improved marginally from about 0.5 t/ha to about 0.6 t/ha over the period of four decades. However, there is an
evident upward trend in the yield of millets in SSA and South which offers some hope for improving food
security and incomes to smallholder farmers in the dry tropics. The IMPACT base model projections to 2025 by
region show the following trends: in ECA the area will increase from about 3.5 to 4.6 million ha, in SADC from
0.83 to 1.1 million ha, in WCA from 15.7 to about 20 million ha, and in South Asia decline from about 13.5 to
11.2 million ha.
Groundnut: The global area of groundnuts registered a substantial increase over the last four decades from about
15 million ha in the early 1960s to over 25 million at the turn of the 21 century. Like wise production has also
increased from less than 15 million t to over 35 million t. The crop area expansion is more evident in China and
lately in all sub-regions of SSA, but declined in South America partly because of competition from soybean as a
source of meal and oils. The trend in South Asia is not so clear; despite the variability over the last few decades,
groundnut area in South Asia seems to be on a slightly upward trend. While groundnut also remains important in
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