ICRISAT Archival Report 2006 - The seedlings of success in the ...

Project Title
Climate Change / Variability
and Rural household
strategies to adapt to them in
the Semi-Arid Tropics (SAT)
Consortium
Members
ICRISAT/CRIDA
Stakeholders and
Project Partners
Farmers, Government
departments, Non-
Governmental
organizations, and
R&D institutions
Countries
involved
India
Project Status
Submitted to GEF
US1,000,000
Output target 2007: Mechanistic model adapted for spatial simulation of African sorghum/millet phenology
and biomass partitioning. Model released, along with updated genotype databases and simplified framework
for extrapolating variety performance to larger recommendation domains.
Unique combinations of external and internal forcings make West Africa one of the most climatically sensitive
regions worldwide, and perhaps the most challenging to model. Linkages between local climate and relatively
predictable ocean drivers are less clear-cut and strongly modulated by intricate effects of continentality. This has
translated into high, distinctive seasonal climatic uncertainty, in terms of the onset and the end of the rainy season
(Figure 9A.1).
Sikasso
Mopti
End Of Season
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230
Onset Of Season
End Of Season
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230
Onset Of Season
Figure 9A.1 Relationship between onset and end dates of the rainy season for Sikasso (northern
guinea zone, 11°21’N) and Mopti (sahelian zone, 14°31’N). Normal period: 1971-2000. Average end
date is highlighted by continuous line with ± 2 standard deviations (dashed lines).
Plants and farmers have selected singular adaptation traits to evade this constraint. They have become experts in
resilience, consolidating West Africa into a primary center of biodiversity for sorghum, millet and other crops,
handling the stochasticity of climate, and managing their way out of dramatic droughts as in the 1970s/80s.
Lately, modern climate science has worked to push back the frontier of rainfall predictability, but skill remains
modest at various timescales contrasting with other regions of Africa and the world. Successful application of
seasonal forecasts in sudano-sahelian smallholder agriculture appears today premature in a context of limited
climate predictability, human vulnerability, and decision capacity.
Prospects will improve over the next decade, driven by improvements in coupled land-atmosphere models,
population growth and intensified production systems (Figure 9A.2). Meanwhile there is scope for further
preparatory work to adapt crop models to local farming systems, couple them with GIS technologies to target
regional breeding programs, and invigorate early agrometeorological crop yield assessment using near-real time data
assimilation methods. Progress is still required on these fronts to assess the profitability of potential response
farming options and the sustainability of existing and alternate adaptation strategies in a context of global and
regional change (Figure 9A.3).
317