ICRISAT Archival Report 2006 - The seedlings of success in the ...

Exploring the dynamics of poverty in India’s Semi Arid tropics
The general trends which were found to be of particular relevance to the visited communities are issues related
to water scarcity, urbanization, and globalization. Also crucial recent village transformation is the decreased
interest in the agriculture, due to the lower potential for profits in this sector.
Overall it would seem that the welfare of households in the villages of Aurepalle and Dokur has increased since
the last VLS iteration. It is impossible to draw any conclusions on the basis of such a short visit and limited
number of observations. Through these visits one, however, is left with the general impression that income and
access to public goods has improved, and that income disparity has not increased and potentially may be
decreasing.
While poverty rates are useful indicators of the level of poverty in a country during a specific period of time,
they do not provide the information concerning the extent of mobility in and out of poverty or about the length
of time people remain in poverty. The degree and cause of poverty experienced by individuals and households
has important policy implications, but is frequently masked by data aggregation and dependence upon stylized
‘facts’.
The purpose of this study is to compliment and extend previous work on trends in poverty and income
distribution. By more closely examining the dynamics of poverty, one can explore which types of households
stay longest below the poverty threshold and whether certain changes in household status are associated with
transitions into or out of poverty.
Conclusions: Results suggest this analytical approach can offer useful insight into poverty dynamics.
Differences exist in the type of events correlated with entry, exit and duration of poverty spells. Suggest
alternative policies needed to remedy each ‘phase’ of poverty. Results suggest policies may be more effective at
preventing entry into poverty than facilitating exit or shortening duration. ‘Medium Term’ poverty appears to be
correlated with different events than long and short term poverty. Further consideration of issue needed
Collaborating Institutions and Scientists:
Purdue University : Kathryn A Boys, Wallace A Tyner
ICRISAT
: MCS Bantilan, KPC Rao
Migration in the VLS : The missing link
The paper focuses predominantly on permanent migration; temporary migration in the context of trends in the
VLS. Within the VLS villages, income and consumption has risen significantly between 1975-1984 and 2001-
2004. The preliminary data has shown that the migrants differ from non-migrants in salient socio-economic
characteristics. Without data on the standard of living of migrants, attrition bias is likely to be substantial. The
impact of migration on consumption and income trends is likely to be a function of the reason for migration;
whilst the size and direction of the bias can be estimated as a function of observable characteristics for some
migrant populations (notably those migrating for work), for other migrant populations (including migrants for
marital reasons or those repatriating with family) estimates of attrition bias using currently available data are
likely to be inaccurate. By tracking migrants, the VLS has taken a step forward to understanding better the
nature of poverty and income dynamics.
From a policy perspective, migration is increasingly being seen as an important livelihood option for poorer
groups, and as a means of poverty reduction (Deshingkar, 2005). The data on migration will help us to better
evaluate the alternative frameworks within which migration has been placed. Migration has been posited to take
a myriad of different forms: as a coping mechanism (Bantilan and Anupama, 2002), as an income diversification
strategy (i.e. a long term plan, a permanent strategy to diversify income in the village) or as a permanent route
out of poverty (i.e. permanent migration out of the village). Whilst econometrically the full identification of the
different mechanisms would not be possible given that the sample consists of only six villages, from a more
qualitative perspective the data will give us insight into the different forces driving migration
Migration in the VLS – how to study it?
Migrant tracking was planned in three main phases. The first phase was to prepare the surveys and to pilot test
the new modules. The first phase was coordinated to coincide with a festival in one of the villages to ensure that
questions could be pre-tested on both temporary and permanent migrants (both of whom are likely to return at
festival time). The second phase involved an incubation period of 6 months during the period of festivals in the
34