ICRISAT Archival Report 2006 - The seedlings of success in the ...

Unfortunately, for most countries good long-term records to capture the high variability associated with the climate
systems in the region are not available. Where available, there are also problems with the quality of the available
data which include missing values and temporal continuity. Further, crop simulation models used to quantify the
impacts of climate variability on crop production require daily data for a range of parameters that often include
maximum and minimum temperature and solar radiation and very limited number of the rainfall recording stations
collect data on these parameters. Attempts were made to generate the required daily data using a stochastic weather
generator MARKSIM and to assess whether or not simulated patterns match the observed pattern for 20 locations in
Kenya. In general the predictions were found to be good for many stations (Table 9A.3). However, for Katumani
and Machakos FTC stations the predicted rainfall values were found to be much higher than the observed.
Preliminary analysis suggested that a part of the error is related to the differences in actual and derived values from
the layer. For these two locations the derived altitude values are much higher than the actual values (>200 m).
However, good relationship between observed and predicted was observed in case of Nthangu and Mbooni stations
where the derived altitudes are less than actual by about the same magnitude. Further analysis with data from
Ethiopia and Mozambique to determine under what conditions the weather generators can be applied.
Farmer perceptions and knowledge about climate variability management:
Surveys to assess how small farmers presently negotiate climate variability and how they might change their
decisions in the light of additional information were carried out in Kenya, Ethiopia and Madagascar. Analysis of the
information collected from Kenya has indicated the following insights:
i. Almost all farmers ranked climate variability as one of the five major constraints limiting crop production
in their area. Other constraints include soil type, crop choices/rotations, input costs, and availability of
credit
ii. Farmers in general perceived higher risk than the one that is actually indicated by the historical climate data
and results of crop simulation analysis. On average farmers rated nearly 53% of the short rain seasons as
poor while historical climate data indicated that only 22% of the seasons received less than 200 mm
rainfall, the minimum required for harvesting a maize crop without failure.
iii. More than 90% of the farmers considered forecast information as the most useful climate information if it
is true in 4 out of 5 years and is available timely in a format that can be used by them with little or no
external assistance
iv.
Almost all farmers are aware of traditional forecasts and some have confidence in them but most do not use
them.
v. Farmers have clear ideas on how to make use of the climate information especially the seasonal climate
forecast information, if they have access to necessary resources. They have also identified a range of season
specific management options that are of potential benefit and do not require many resources.
vi.
vii.
viii.
ix.
Nearly 75% farmers believe that normally their decisions are based on the basis of normal to above normal
rainfall expectations. Though farmers are aware of management options that can reduce risk in below
normal years and increase production in above normal years, most farmers plan and conduct their farm
operations with normal conditions in mind.
Nearly 50% of the farmers are aware of the scientific forecasts made by the Kenya Meteorological
department but differed in their confidence in the forecast. Less than 40% of the farmers who are aware of
the forecasts indicated that the forecasts are dependable
Among the options for receiving the forecast information, 85% farmers preferred radio. The other popular
options are extension agencies and church organizations. Though TV is also identified as an important
source its access in rural areas is extremely low.
Most farmers are not comfortable with probabilistic forecasts. They considered information about the
amount and distribution of rainfall, and on set and cessation of the rain season as the most important facts.
x. In addition to forecast information, farmers would like to receive additional comments (e.g., about the
conditions under which it can go wrong), explanation on agricultural significance, and updates during the
season.
xi.
xii.
Access to credit and improved technologies were considered as major limitations to derive maximum
benefit from the forecast information
For farmers to plan and act they would like to receive the information at least one month before the actual
start of the season
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