ICRISAT Archival Report 2006 - The seedlings of success in the ...

Collaborating Institutions and Scientists:
TNAU : K Palanisami, Nedumaran
ICRISAT : B Shiferaw, SP Wani, TK Sreedevi
1D.7. Development of a dynamic non-linear bioeconomic model with crop-livestock integration (Asia)
Bioeconomic models are useful tools in policy analysis because they can reflect the biophysical as well as
socioeconomic conditions essential for decision making with in specific “bioeconomy”. They may be used to
explore the linkages between ecology and the economy and the dynamic effects of these linkages over time. In
this study a watershed level dynamic non-linear bioeconomic model with crop-livestock integration is developed
for the Kothapally watershed. This model maximizes the income of the whole watershed, which include three
types of households based on land endowment (small, medium, large), who are spatially disaggregated into six
different segment in the watershed landscape [three types of soils based on soil depth (shallow, medium and
deep) and two types of land (dryland and irrigated land)]. The model maximizes the aggregate net present value
of income of the watershed over a 10 year planning horizon. The income of the household groups is defined as
the present value of future income earned from different livelihood sources (like crop, livestock, non-farm, etc)
subject to constraints on level, quality and distribution of key production factors (e.g., land, labour, capital,
bullock power, soil depth), animal feed requirement and minimum subsistence food requirements for the
consumers in each household group.
The crop production in the model is affected by change in soil depth, which is reducing due to soil erosion. The
erosion level in the watershed is estimated for predicted land use pattern and through transition equation soil
erosion reduces the initial soil depth of the land. By using econometric method the yield-soil depth response is
estimated and used in the production function in the bioeconomic model. The nutrient balance in the watershed
is estimated by using a nutrient balance equation in the model. This equation estimates the nutrient balances for
the simulation period based on inflow (fertilizer and manure application, biological fixation and atmospheric
deposition) and outflow (crop grains and residual yield, erosion and leaching) of nutrients in the watershed.
The baseline model serves as a starting point for policy experiments to assess the likely impact of alternative
policy intervention. The bioeconomic model used in the study analyses the combined effects of land
degradation, population growth and market imperfections on household production, welfare and food security.
The study, which is a Ph.D dissertation, concludes that increases in the price of dryland crops and increasing the
yield of the dryland crops by introduction of some high yielding drought tolerance varieties can be effective
technological and policy instruments for slowing down the process of land degradation and improve the welfare
of the farmers in the watershed. The results from the Kothapally watershed study should be useful to
policymakers and others seeking to reduce poverty and improve land management in SAT regions of India. This
model can also be used as a decision support tool to develop an optimum farm plan for different households in
the watershed with available resource without affecting the natural resource base. Beyond this, the bioeconomic
modeling approach used in this study can be usefully adapted and applied in many other settings.
Collaborating Institutions and Scientists:
TNAU : K Palanisami, Nedumaran
ICRISAT : B Shiferaw, SP Wani, TK Sreedevi
Priority 5C. Rural institutions and their governance
Priority 5C, Specific goal 1: Identify mechanisms for the strengthening of producers’ organizations and for
modes of participatory research
Priority 5C, Specific goal 2: Identify new forms of partnerships with NARS, the private sector, public extension
agencies, NGOs and producers’ organizations, and public agencies from other sectors, such as
environment and health to enhance the conduct and impact from agricultural research
Output 1E. Alternative institutional innovations and topologies to strengthen rural institutions that
facilitate and enhance adoption of technological and market innovations and policy recommendations for
formal and informal social networks to address vulnerability, gender and social exclusion in SAT farming
systems developed and shared by 2009. Developments shared annually with partners.
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