Capital Investment Plan 2009 - Heathrow Airport

joint process of consultation and discussion in order that, in the light of the Government
decision on adding capacity at the airport, a common agreed set of purpose and vision
statements may be agreed prior to the third quarter of 2009.
Such consultation shall need to be undertaken with the context of simultaneous
discussions on the affordability and the time phasing of possible future investments.
(Refer also to sections 2.2.3 and 2.3 )
2.2 Heathrow Airport Storyboard
2.2.1 Q5 Traffic Demand (Extract from CAA Decision 8 )
The CAA Decision provides the following table of traffic forecast used to establish the
Q5 price control.
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
CAA
(Final)
70.4 72.5 74.5 76.2 78.2
All values in Millions of Passengers Annum.
Table 1: Extract of Table 4-5 CAA Forecast Passenger Numbers. From CAA Decision.
Reflective of the current economic environment, the HAL have previously reported the
total traffic for 2008/09 at 65.9 million passengers.
HAL believes that, the long term nature of capital investment decisions means that, at
this time, the current economic downturn does not result in a need to revisit the plans
for the current quinquennium. HAL will consult with the airline community in this
respect during the regulatory year 2009/10 in line with the discussions outlined in
section 2.2.2 on Q6 and beyond.
2.2.2 Long Term Traffic Demand (Q6 and beyond)
Annex G 9
states that HAL are obliged to consult with the airline community on the
traffic forecasts for the airport in order that correct long term investment decisions can
be made.
In line with the issues outlined in sections 2.1, 2.2.3, 2.2.5, and 2.3 HAL does not
present detailed long term traffic forecasts in this version of the CIP. Consultation on
forecasts, in the light of aviation industry expectations and the recent Government
decision, will be undertaken with the airline community following the process and
timelines outlined below. Such work will be done so as to allow inclusion of full traffic
forecasts in future CIP publications and for interim publication between HAL, airline
community and the CAA as needed before then.
In general the process for consulting on traffic forecasts will follow that for the general
master planning. HAL therefore intends to present its current interpretation of possible
forecast scenarios, aligned with possible future runway capacity scenarios that enable
Air Traffic Movement (ATM) growth beyond the current 480,000 annual ATM limit, by
the end of May 2009. This initial presentation will be followed by a two to three month
period of iterative discussions with the airline community in general, and airlines holding
8
Economic Regulation of Heathrow and Gatwick Airports, CAA Decision, 11 th March 2008.
9
Annex G of the Economic Regulation of Heathrow and Gatwick Airports, CAA Decision, 11 th
March 2008.
Internal File Name: 0903XX-CIP 2009 Main Document-V71-IG 5