Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

70 P. F. Lazarsfeld
1-1 I 1+1 I +2 I +3
Charted on the horizontal axis of the diagram are the successive periods of time
at which observations are made. On the vertical axis are letters designating the
variables under observation. In political studies these variables might be vote
intentions, attitudes toward various issues in the campaign, the opinions of
family members, and so forth. The arrows in the scheme represent the relations
between these variables. Some of these arrows have ‘time lags’; we might want
to know, for example, whether an individual’s vote intention is affected by
what he has read at an earlier time. Other arrows relate different variables at
the same time period; we might want to find out, for example, whether an
individual shares his opinions with his friends. Still other arrows cross several
time periods and several variables; for example, exposure to a friend’s opinion
at time t may be followed by a new way of looking at the campaign at time
t + ~ and, finally, by a changed vote intention at time t+2.
However complex a research situation, its analysis can be reduced to an
elementary form expressed in variate language. To exemplify this, we have
chosen a finding from a study of college students.’ They were interviewed twice
over a period of two years; on each occasion, they were asked questions about
two central variates - their occupational choices and some of their main values.
‘People-oriented’ occupational values and occupational choice in I950 and I952
Choice
Values
1952
PO
PO
r PO
NPO
NPO
PO
NPO
NPO Total
1950 PO PO 163 A 30 18 (226)
PO NPO @ 29 8 21 (89)
NPO PO 39 8 73 @ (166)
NPO NPO 6 I4 A 168 (231)
Total (236) (66) (156) (256) (712)
SOURCE: M. Rosenberg, Occupational Values and Occupational Choice, New York,
Columbia University Dissertation, 1953.
To simplify the presentation, each of the variates has been reduced to a dicho-
tomy. In their occupational choices, students were classified as people-oriented
(ambitions to be a teacher, doctor, social worker, psychologist, etc.) or other-